How much of Jubaland's Agricultural GDP is generated by nomads vs farmers?

[Thegoodshepherd]

Ran some rough numbers to find out how much of Jubaland's agricultural GDP is generated by nomads vs farmers.
Many people who have been to the Shabelle regions, Hiraan Middle & Lower Shabelle, assume that settlement and production patterns there are similar to Jubaland. I think this is a mistake.

I have suspected that Jubaland is actually a region where nomads dominate the economy and agricultural production.
It is not a place where much farming takes place. The data seem to support this understanding.

Somalia's livestock population distribution in 1999

Somalia's livestock population distribution in 2014, 15 years later. Jubaland's share has gone down slightly.
The lower figures from 2014 were used instead of 2019.

Using crop data from 2019, the last year there was a normal harvest, I calculated how much value in $ farmers in Jubaland produced during that year.
Farmers in Jubaland grew about $25 million worth of crops in 2019.

Source: https://crops.fsnau.org/ & FAOSTAT

For livestock meat production, market data from July-August were used since that is when most livestock sales take place.
For livestock milk production, market data and livestock population data was used along with FAOSTAT production data.

Source: Market Update - July & August 2019, FAOSTAT, IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development (ICPALD)

When all is taken together, farmers contribute something like 6% of Jubaland's agricultural GDP.
Keep in mind that yearly rises and falls in the livestock sector's GDP can be on the order of 10%-15%.

Jubaland is a place where nomads are producing almost all of the agricultural GDP.
If you were to look at Jubaland's total GDP, farming probably accounts for less than 3%.
This should not be surprising. In Somalia as a whole, farming only accounted for 9% of agricultural GDP as recently as 2012.
The farmer of Jubaland are fairly marginal, it is a region of nomads.

Source: SOMALIA: COUNTRY ECONOMIC MEMORANDUM VOLUME I
Further reading:
Sub-Sector Mapping & Value Chain Analysis of the Livestock Sub-Sector in Somalia
Livestock Production in Somalia with Special Emphasis on Camels
SOMALIA TOWARDS A LIVESTOCK SECTOR STRATEGY
Livestock trade and devolution in the Somali-Kenya transboundary corridor
Pastoralism in a Stateless Environment: The Case of the Southern Somalia Borderlands
Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME III Federal Member State and Administrative Region Reports

 

[Hilmaam]

Is this a bad thing? is this to say more emphasis should be on farming or that livestock is our bread and butter and should be focus

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Is this a bad thing? is this to say more emphasis should be on farming or that livestock is our bread and butter and should be focus

It is both good and bad. The region is producing an agricultural surplus in milk and meat, which is a big deal in Somalia, but is very far behind in crop production.

People who don't understand Jubaland have a misconception that Middle and Lower Juba are like Middle and Lower Shabelle and that Gedo is like Hiiraan. This is a widespread and wrong assumption. It is the most nomadic federal state after Puntland.

Gabiley district alone produces almost as much maize and sorghum as all of Jubaland.

 

[DalsanJubiland]

It is both good and bad. The region is producing an agricultural surplus in milk and meat, which is a big deal in Somalia, but is very far behind in crop production.

People who don't understand Jubaland have a misconception that Middle and Lower Juba are like Middle and Lower Shabelle and that Gedo is like Hiiraan. This is a widespread and wrong assumption. It is the most nomadic federal state after Puntland.

Gabiley district alone produces almost as much maize and sorghum as all of Jubaland.

Because people don’t do farming in Jubaland any more. In older day a everybody in towns and villages had rain growing farm in Jubada House they use to grow corn or maize. Also use to be cattle country. Now you have camels everywhere. Normadic who has camel don’t grow crops, they travel most of the time,
People lost farming skills after the civil war.
May estimate only 20% of the Jubada Hose population grows anything.
So 70% are nomadic
10% are fishermen.

 

[GeesiSomali]

Because people don’t do farming in Jubaland any more. In older day a everybody in towns and villages had rain growing farm in Jubada House they use to grow corn or maize. Also use to be cattle country. Now you have camels everywhere. Normadic who has camel don’t grow crops, they travel most of the time,
People lost farming skills after the civil war.
May estimate only 20% of the Jubada Hose population grows anything.
So 70% are nomadic
10% are fishermen.

In Somalia, there are tribes that farm and tribes that are nomadic. Jubbaland just doesn’t have farming tribes. The Darood, RX and Hawiya clans that live there are completely nomadic. My assumption is the Madoweyne tribe is the only farmers in the region.

 

[Burqad]

Because people don’t do farming in Jubaland any more. In older day a everybody in towns and villages had rain growing farm in Jubada House they use to grow corn or maize. Also use to be cattle country. Now you have camels everywhere. Normadic who has camel don’t grow crops, they travel most of the time,
People lost farming skills after the civil war.
May estimate only 20% of the Jubada Hose population grows anything.
So 70% are nomadic
10% are fishermen.

this disproves the fkd claims that there are a huge amount of bantus in waamo, if there were Fardheers wouldn’t be starving

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

I was under the assumption that lower juba had the highest number of cattle in somalia due to to the history of the area

 

[Chaseyourdreamzz]

Because people don’t do farming in Jubaland any more. In older day a everybody in towns and villages had rain growing farm in Jubada House they use to grow corn or maize. Also use to be cattle country. Now you have camels everywhere. Normadic who has camel don’t grow crops, they travel most of the time,
People lost farming skills after the civil war.
May estimate only 20% of the Jubada Hose population grows anything.
So 70% are nomadic
10% are fishermen.

Are people switching from Cattle to camels because of the droughts in the area explain ?

 

[Burqad]

Are people switching from Cattle to camels because of the droughts in the area explain ?

camels ruin cattle land, they tend to carry thorn seeds in their saxaaro, so if camels graze on cattle land it turns from grass that is good for cattle to thorny scrubs that is only good for camels.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

I was under the assumption that lower juba had the highest number of cattle in somalia due to to the history of the area

It does have the most cattle. ~ 40% of Somalia's cattle are in Jubaland.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

this disproves the fkd claims that there are a huge amount of bantus in waamo, if there were Fardheers wouldn’t be starving

The low level of crop production means that the demographic weight of the D&M and Bantu in Jubaland is vastly exaggerated. The maize and sorghum produced is barely enough to feed 100K people. This in a region with 1.8 million people.

 

[Abaq]

That is because nomads of the O variety dominate the area. Thank you for providing stats to prove this

 

[cow]

The camels in gedo are mx, Majority of the camels in middle jubba are mx and atleast 40 percent of camels in lower juba are mx.

We also take our camels to bay and bakool. Gedo has by far the biggest nomadic population in somalia if you look at Google earth you will see thousands of berkeds and baraaqs.

 

[GemState]

The camels in gedo are mx, Majority of the camels in middle jubba are mx and atleast 40 percent of camels in lower juba are mx.

We also take our camels to bay and bakool. Gedo has by far the biggest nomadic population in somalia if you look at Google earth you will see thousands of berkeds and baraaqs.

Not even close. Sanaag, Waqooyi Galbeed, Awdal, Nugaal and Hiiraan all have a larger nomadic population than Gedo.

Sanaag is by far the region with the biggest nomadic population in somalia

 

[cow]

Not even close. Sanaag, Waqooyi Galbeed, Awdal, Nugaal and Hiiraan all have a larger nomadic population than Gedo.

Sanaag is by far the region with the biggest nomadic population in somalia

Fake , gedo has the most camels in all of somaliweyn. It has the most berkeds and those two things points to nomadic population.

 

[GemState]

Fake , gedo has the most camels in all of somaliweyn. It has the most berkeds and those two things points to nomadic population.

This is from the UNHCR. Unless the nomadic population in Gedo went up in the last 8 years, this is how it is.

 

[cow]

This is from the UNHCR. Unless the nomadic population in Gedo went up in the last 8 years, this is how it is.

View attachment 241840

That is not a real census my brotha.

How do I know that gedo has the biggest nomadic population because buying a camels inside gedo cost almost 50 percent cheaper then buying one anywhere else in somalia, there is so much abundance of camels. Also the Italians counted reer taxle camels back in the day and it was at 167,000 camels. Just one subclan of marexaan.

Also look at Google earth and compare nugaal and sanaag to gedo.

There are thousands of berkeds all over the place in gedo

 

[GuanYu]

Fake , gedo has the most camels in all of somaliweyn. It has the most berkeds and those two things points to nomadic population.

Just my Grandfather Alone he had 800 Camels, His brothers had each 200-300 EACH, and there were 4, so around 800-1.2K camel just from my great grandfather (Not including my grandfather).
And this is less than 1% of our other Marexaan brothers. Gedo is without a Doubt the largest nomadic population. Problem with these statistics they only account for the camels that come through Trade centers and interviews with people NOT PHYSICALLY COUNTING!! and only For 30DAYS.

Because What we did in Gedo is we split up our camels in groups, majority of the camels are in the Harween group, these do not go to towns to be traded nor are they in the nomad camps, so basically they are as wild as you can get and can free roam with only a few GeelJires. Are they really gonna go to the places where these Geeljires are? Even Reer Magaalka have problems reaching them,

 

[Prince of HS]

This is from the UNHCR. Unless the nomadic population in Gedo went up in the last 8 years, this is how it is.

View attachment 241840

The guy rejects every census out there lol

 

[cow]

The guy rejects every census out there lol

i reject if it directly against something that is obvious btw the 2014 is not a census it is fake. sxb go to google earth spend 15 minutes and zoom in this part of gedo, you will see thousands of berkeds all over the place.