Knowing Zooos, they never elect a former president.1. Public support
2. Money
3. Awood
these 3 factors all play a role in Presidential election.
By in 2016 Farmaajo had public support saxib, alot of people we pro-Farmaajo because of 6 months PM reputation, their pressure on their MPs played a huge role that cannot be down played.
Farmaajo going into 2022 election has a huge chance in the presidential election, 1. Public support remains the same, the public see him as the best option, although some hardcore anti-Farmaajo and pro-Farmaajo are fighting over social media most Somalis see him as the best option for now.
2. Money, Farmaajo demonstrated he can pay the wages of the MPs government employees and allies in terms of dhaqan, this is much more credible than the one off bribes they were used to in previous elections, they rather have stable income and career so personal interest is to vote Farmaajo.
3. Awood, Farmaajo has Gorgor, SNA, NISA alot of the military and special police are build by Farmaajo or rewamped by him, he has alot of awood, and this awood is felt in Guriceel when he defends Qoorqoor and his Cayr N&N allies from PL/Damjadiid sponsored Sufis.
So for Farmaajo to lose something insane has to happen, like a coup, or civil war.