Heavy fighting in Mogadishu

[DR OSMAN]

@Farjano-Walad you control igad due to your strategic location in kenya/ethiopia/somalia, if they say SSC is the bridge between somalia iyo somaliland, the bridge between kenya-ethiopia-somalia is ogaden. My dad was like how lucky you kunts are where u r majority in ethiopia and can develop fast and also in kenya with your elites plus in somalia in jubaland. U have two nations without a UN embargo also, so you could technically facilitate large weaponry into somalia either thru kenya or ethiopia. It's not good having your eggs all in one basket or nation, it's single point of collapse and ogaden is blessed he has his eggs 'federalized' in 3 nations. Puntland has it's eggs in Puntland proper which is our 'ancestoral land' but we also have our crown territories in kismayo and kudhaa island.

We also will take back socotra with yemen now in crisis and advise 'mahri ismacil' we won't fight our brothers but we need to host each other in the event any of our lands are attacked. Mahri Ismail has large lands in eastern yemen and oman

My dad said with that sort of strategic location for puntland, we would've demand foreign/security portfolio in both nations and also in Somalia. But u wasted a number of years in war with habashi when the global world is not going to welcome a war, it was during this peace time with only one global super power 'america' and yes china isn't competing in africa politically so there is no chance of another expansion race in africa for u to take a war solution in ethiopia thru onlf, if china was playing ball politically, i could understand ONLF strategy of getting china backing for oil or something that is mutual interest. But china won't do that, they simply prefer an economic relationship in africa and with the rest of the globe, they won't interfere and choose sides in local politics.

So knowing all these geo political factors and knowing the world is under one super power, the borders of the world are locked in and no-one is going to change them in the foreseeable future so what u should've of done in the mean-time is take foreign-defence portfolio in ethiopia and demand somalia matters no habashi involvement and only ogaden involvement allowed.

U would've dominated somalia and had all pl/south/sl under your guidance and they wouldn't of had any way to seek kikuyu or habashi who would tell them 'ethiopia and kenya' security depends on ogaden being foreign/defence portfolio since they border Somalia. That is what ONLF should demand as bare minimum to stop the war in ethiopia.

Axsan ma taalo Somalia, hawiye futo madoobe is in bed with terrorists and muslim brotherhood in egypt-turkey-qatar now forming a damn alliance in Somalia, puntland is in bed with west-dubai-saudi-israel alliance. Why would ogadens not just join one or the other alliance either brotherhood or western because that's all that global politics in somalia is, their isn't any other nation involved and they want to ensure this nation doesn't damage their allies in kenya/ethiopia which u should be playing a leading role. But u guys seem to have realized now 'axsan' ma taalo somalia, their even attacking you in DDSI some marehan-habar gedir, waa ka kibirtooda. @Galmudug-State is right ma jiro somalinimo, tasho niyahow. PL way tashatay and we don't slip out of alliance quickly hadaan meel ku biirno. Like our PL/JL alliance is going strong since 2013 till now as we stand as the 'safe guarders' of federalism in Somalia. Our respective states are now under the puntjubi treaty and accords.. Galmudug has to abide to the galkacyo accords of 93 ama beletwayne ayaa sugayso which he wont dare break the 93 accords. Sxb ayaahaga ka tasho Somalinimo ma jiro, majerten waa tashday a long time ago, and it's good to see absame now join the western alliance and is igad president.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Farjano-Walad and I must tag in @FBIsomalia our 'id22r' commander and intelligence officer. Even Id22r got some 'prime land in Isiolo' in Kenya, why you think that is the 'case'? they will welcome their brethrens in the event 'badda' cas ay noqoto meel nuclear war ka dhaco wayna ka dhici karta becuz iran is building a nuclear facility, saudi will copy, and the play ground will naturally be areas around yemen and the nuclear weather alone will blast the skins of puntland and somaliland, meesha dhan waxay noqonaysa meel qalalan oo hawada dhan ayaa noqonayso unbreathable. Is this possible, yes, is it likely, 'no' as the world powers will intervene and bring these two 'middle power' nations into talks before such outcome happens.

Even HG is trying to create new bases around the south as second homeland copying the darods who did this 2 centuries ago in the scramble for africa race, habar gedir started in 91, always 200 years later. Look how long it's taking them to create a federal state 23 years later, mar walbo they do stuff after siyasada lagu kala kacay and everyone is moving forward

 

[Yonis]

As soon as you though Somalia has learned from its past - this happens.

Almost as though certain people are allergic to peace and stability

 

[Murax]

@Amazonian @reer @Calaf @Waaqmasho

 

[AbdiGeedi]

As soon as you though Somalia has learned from its past - this happens.

Almost as though certain people are allergic to peace and stability

I view the latest events as pains of learning. We are moving in the right direction in terms of political culture. I don't think any of the participants in this political discourse wants destruction deep in his/her heart.

When diaspora trolls show keyboard militancy, I be like:

 

[SomaliSteel]

Peace at the hands of a tyrant is no peace.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I view the latest events as pains of learning. We are moving in the right direction in terms of political culture. I don't think any of the participants in this political discourse wants destruction deep in his/her heart.

When diaspora trolls show keyboard militancy, I be like:

I don't mind if some clan wants a war just not in the urban area, go outside the town like how kismayo wars were or puntland wars are, it's always hawiye that does urban warfare, why dont u ask them why they fight in urban areas?

Why are they scared of open warfare like most nations do? hadee 'tabar' ma jiro since hawiye has no history in somalia real wars like 'sayidka' or 'bari wars' prior to sayid waa laga 'horumaray dagaal iyo sida loo dagalamo' and hence they're scared like es to fight in conventional war ama meel banan, so they resort to moryan tactics and moryans are not soldiers but common thugs like african americans but have u noticed in american army african americans are 'cooks' well meesh lagu dagaali laha hadad cook ka tahay, then why be a moryan and act tough in a city and fight?

 

[Jiron]

As soon as you though Somalia has learned from its past - this happens.

Almost as though certain people are allergic to peace and stability

You must give our people back home more credit sxb. Xamar has a population over few million people, and after the incident, it was back to business the next day. No doomsday, the citizens do not have an appetite for further destruction

 

[DR OSMAN]

You must give our people back home more credit sxb. Xamar has a population over few million people, and after the incident, it was back to business the next day. No doomsday, the citizens do not have an appetite for further destruction

A few million my ass, it's lucky if it's 1.4 million and even their banadir muncipality world bank document says that. A few million, somalis exagerrate a-lot. I already measured mogadishu totaal area sq and counted how many houses are in each sq km, I applied a density ratio of 5 but I will change that if there is proof that there is more in each house then 5 people, cuz each neighborhood or area sq will have variation of 3-5-8 so u need to average that out for density average. War yaysan huuhaagooda hawiye been ku sheegin. There is another 500k worth of IDPS who are not hawiye either. I didn't factor in Madow-wayn who is 10% of somalia total population yet 95% live in hawiye corridor kkkkkk so u need to take that out of the equation also.

Hamar population based on the houses is 1 to 1.5 million. Add another 300-500k for IDP. Anything between 1-2 million is feasible if u include the IDPS. If u just include the residents wallahi 1 million weeye with Madow being easily 1-200k in hamar but in the south from beletwayn river up untill juba river they are far larger and roughly 1.2 million in total or 10% of somalia national population. Somalia population is anywhere between 12-15 million give or take, u need to deduct 10% for 'Madow' alone. Hamar is 100-200k easily Madow, 300k IDPS, 1 million are 'residents'.

I wud say the banadir municipal world bank document is fairly accurate and work out to be the same when I do area sq kilometer measurement and count each house in that area sq and multiply it across the city total area sq. The other thing u need to average out is not all the hamar has density, most places don't outside bakaraha becuz for density u need proof of 'dabaqyo'

 

[Jiron]

A few million my ass, it's lucky if it's 1.4 million and even their banadir muncipality world bank document says that. A few million, somalis exaggerate a-lot

One thing I agree with you is that Somalias population is extremely exaggerated no matter which state or city, in the meantime we have to guesstimate until a proper census is done. However, there's no dispute that Xamar is the biggest city in Somalia and I believe based on size, development and sheer number of people within close proximity in every picture, is easily 2 million.

I also think the entire Somalia/land population to be around 8-9 million in total.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Jiron ask any puntite about bosasao it's all 'dabaaq heaven' and my father recently was there on holiday visit and he said every corner u turn it's either 2-3-5 stories and it's nearly everywhere not dotted in certain areas just like hargeisa or hamar which is caalled hot-spot density and only covers like 1 area sq, u will literally see dabaq after dabaq at every corner u take in bosaso so it's city wide density not just 1 area sq, so bosaso is high density as a city. Hargeisa has no real density and hamar doesn't either besides bakaraha.

Where-as Bosaso the whole city is dabaq after dabaq and I think Galkayo is similar but 'less'. Bosaso is puntland largest city today with gaalkacyo being second, where-as when u read estimations of unfpa it makes galkayo larger then bosaso which is bullshit and not based on 'density' data whatsoever. Plus unfpa even counts ghost villages that don't exist in the south or north which I proven in another thread how their district villages are listed with the UN and the UNFPA is counting it as if their is people when it's simply rocks and empty spot with a name given to it. This sent Isaaq wild and they all disappeared in shame after that exposure.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

I don't mind if some clan wants a war just not in the urban area, go outside the town like how kismayo wars were or puntland wars are, it's always hawiye that does urban warfare, why dont u ask them why they fight in urban areas?

Why are they scared of open warfare like most nations do? hadee 'tabar' ma jiro since hawiye has no history in somalia real wars like 'sayidka' or 'bari wars' prior to sayid waa laga 'horumaray dagaal iyo sida loo dagalamo' and hence they're scared like b*tches to fight in conventional war ama meel banan, so they resort to moryan tactics and moryans are not soldiers but common thugs like african americans but have u noticed in american army african americans are 'cooks' well meesh lagu dagaali laha hadad cook ka tahay, then why be a moryan and act tough in a city and fight?

It is best to avoid stigmatization if we want to be one nation and one country.

Yesterday, the opposition militia did not respond and government forces fired in air to disperse the crowd. So, there is some sort of mutual understanding among the relevant parties to not over-escalate.

The lesson I drew from the events is that Kheyre can run as fast as Usain Bolt and win 100 m Olympic race.

 

[DR OSMAN]

It is best to avoid stigmatization if we want to be one nation and one country.

Yesterday, the opposition militia did not respond and government forces fired in air to disperse the crowd. So, there is some sort of mutual understanding among the relevant parties to not over-escalate.

The lesson I drew from the events is that Kheyre can run as fast as Usain Bolt and win 100 m Olympic race.

I am not calling for prejudice or stigma of hawiye as a 'weak soldier' but sxb go look at each so called war they been in, they kill civilians first, abdiqayb diid fired into bakaraha market in the 90s? why? are civilians armed? of course not. All hawiye wars are always inside the city, look at galkayo, they fire mortars and rpgs into north galkayo first.

This seems like a 'new war tactic' their using now and we need not ignore it but call them out for it and say 'war hadadan dagaal aqaanin then there is no point fighting and killing civilians who are unarmed' since wars is about soldier on soldier not soldier on civilian. They only do this as they want you to 'stop the battle' or 'leave' in order to save civilian or property damage casualty. I am half hawiye as my brain is half hawiye and I know their style of fighting and just exposing it to Somalis, if I saw a similar pattern in darod warfare I would say the same thing. Darod seem to have a longer history in wars due to our environment being a desert and resources are scarce, this isn't the case in the south where it's plush and green and creates laziness and there war style stinks of laziness and comfort.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@AbdiGeedi u r right about one thing. I don't want to see a repeat of 91 nor do I want to see a repeat of warlord era like what indhocade just tried to pull off, the warlord era was 93-2004 and terrorist era was 2006 till now even tho it has switched to an insurgency it's still classified as the terrorist era 2006-2020. I saw the warlord era in 98 and I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy, the place was simply a open air zoo there was no govt,prison, diaspora, nothing in terms of development, I saw that beautiful road, tree, pedestarian malls and development indhocade and opposition were walking by, none of that existed in 98, it was an open air zoo. We can hate each other, qabil beef, qabiil compete, but as @Jiron said we don't want to see a no government outcome, horumarka waa inu si socoda while we can insult each other but not take it to the point of returning to 98

 

[AbdiGeedi]

@DR OSMAN You and I are both from the North. Qabils don't exist for me. I view all Somalis as brothers and sisters. Even if we are different, we need to create our own home and pass it on. One day you and me will be just dust.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Abdi

@DR OSMAN You and I are both from the North. Qabils don't exist for me. I view all Somalis as brothers and sisters. Even if we are different, we need to create our own home and pass it on. One day you and me will be just dust.

That sounds beautiful in short words but then please step outside politics and stop seeking power, its when u combine your words and people see you doing the total opposite is when you lose confidence.

There is this guy called General c/raxman warsame cilmi caare my dad best friend weeye and he is sacad and he stepped out of all politics in somalia, my dad is like that is 'wadani' who deserved a national burial but not his other best mate 'qaybdiid' he advised him 'shahado' illahi inu ku cafiyo wa laga yaaba lakin shacab somaliyeed ku cafinayso ma jirto meaning you commited to many war atrocities for you to rejoin somali politics, has he listened to my dad 'qaybdid nope' but 'caare' on his own accord stepped the f*ck down, my dad also didn't get involved in the 'warlord' era and relocated in the mid 80s to australia

 

[Sheikh Kulkuli]

 

[Dalalos_ibn_Adali]

Hawiye elders blast Madasha " we will die before we let you sully our name"

 

[Galmudug-State]

Gedo Bush people lauging at shooting Somali mothers who were peacefully protesting.

 

[Dalalos_ibn_Adali]

Cumar Finnish Benadir state "Failed politicians will not return us to lawlessness the government is here to stay in the face of foreign interference and proxy militia"