GaradShabeel
VIP
In what way has it taken longer? Everything has been remarkably on schedule. Sure there was pressure for talks with PL but HSM cleverly outplayed Deni by inviting PL stakeholders to his opposition talks. Since then Deni has effectively said there’s no agreement and no change of completing the constitution without SL. And SL is not coming so the IC will give up or have given up on finding agreement with Deni.
One thing I’ll add is Deni has rejected agreements signed by PL in the past like election agreement, national security architecture and natural resources agreement. This has harmed his argument that PL itself is against the agreements HSM is pushing for as HSM says he and Farmaajo already signed them with Gaas.
Another thing I have to pick up on is there’s not going to be any separate deal with PL. HSM has made this his read line. PL will likely be allowed to not take part but they’ll also lose the benefits that come with the FGS, whether that’s for example oil production in the South, tax revenue from the new centralised revenue office, future projects funded by FGS loans etc. I can see a quick collapse from PL when the FGS has control of the South and is able to fund states in a big way.
I think it's a little repetitive now, but I meant while the timeline of the NCC meetings/agreements have been done as FGS expected, the IC pushback on HSM original plan of sidestepping PL have made FGS take another approach. IC wanted direct talks, but HSM has opted for other PL 'stakeholders' for now (not really what I would call it). But IC have acknowledged it, so I guess some boost to HSM's gov't.
I agree that SL will not be part of this constitution and was never part of the plan either by IC given SL's quest of secession unlike other FMS. But IC still expects that both sides, PL and FGS, loosen on their stances and make some concession. HSM seem steadfast in not doing it outside of the framework of NCC/not involving other FMS. Deni seem to be holding on to his take that a constitution without PL, won't be accepted. We'll see how this will develop.
The so called benefits are things that will not happen now, maybe with the exception of international aid. Oil production, if found, will take years to produce. Tax revenue, most of the FMS can't even stay afloat by themselves, so nothing PL is missing out now. FGS loans, if debt relief happens and HSM seek new loans, it will be based on FGS finances. They seem to be experiencing lower revenue for some time now and with Banaadir soon going to be seeking to get a bigger share of their revenue, FGS need to increase their budget, along with other conditions to get access to large loans. With IC seeking to cut all aid in a few years and the FMS currently draining FGS resources, they'll have to immediately find new ways to support themselves and so forth.
There're many things in the way for your given examples, which in itself will also take time. My hypothesis is that PL/FGS will sort out their differences very soon before all mentioned things occurs.
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