bidenkulaha
GalYare
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FGS changing of the constitution process document leaked
- Thread starter bidenkulaha
- Start date
Bit busy to read through so what are the main points?
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Basically they’re about to reach process 4-5. Parliament has a debate and then vote. 2/3rds of MPs needed and then if they vote for it, it’s passed
That is followed by referendum to make it the final constitution which is decided within 30 days of passing this
Do you know when it will reach parliament for them to discuss and vote? Process of finalising the constitution should be over and done with
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Defo has to be around September if there’s no sudden change of plans
What do you mean by referendum?
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Yes or no vote to the constitution. Till then it remains kumeel-gaar
Who will vote? MPs?
bidenkulaha
GalYare
The population. See it like the Brexit referendum lol
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Update:
Both Madoobe and Cali Xaashi have signed onto this
Both Madoobe and Cali Xaashi have signed onto this
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bidenkulaha
GalYare
Inshallah it goes well. I think this is the best hope we’ve had of completing it and moving to a strong FGS
GaradShabeel
VIP
The constitution will remain provisional, even with all of the amendments that are being pushed through the parliament to 'complete' it, for as long all stakeholders are not in agreement with each other.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
It’ll be completed, just will need a final referendum but it’ll be in effect immediately for things like elections, financing, international agreements, courts etc.
There’ll be no ‘review progress’ after this. And it’ll apply to most of the country, likely except SL and PL (initially)
GaradShabeel
VIP
I don't doubt that they'll be able to get it through. But as the IC said before, and evident in the recent UN session, every FMS need to be on aboard. HSM was told to go back to the negotiating table and solve the point of contentions.
PL has not signed the current proposed amendments and SSC and SL have had no say either. Expect to see several changes, be it now in a near future or later on, before we have a complete constitution. Until then, it will only be applied in the FGS controlled part of Somalia.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
SL situation is different to PL. Also SSC stuff is dead, Deni killed it on August 1st when he said he’s giving them time before joining PL. IC is not waiting on SL or SSC.
PL is the only interesting point you make but IC was split on the UN session
• EU is funding the completion of the constitution without PL. They’re just paid $20 million to implement the NCC agreements, which is the first cheque of many
• U.K. is in support of completing the constitution
• US is trying to bring PL to the negotiating table but after failing to convince Deni and his latest statement about no constitution without Somaliland we shall see if they continue with that futile task. Currently the US is pushing World Bank and IMF to compete debt relief program without PL and relaxing the arms embargo too which is a big change in past policy (need for unanimous consent from FMS)
GaradShabeel
VIP
Deni only gave an advice to reer SSC, along also saying that he support them in whatever decision they take. FGS will have to address the elephant in the room.
It's obvious that IC in trying to hurry up the process in whatever way they can. That doesn't necessary mean that they'll stop putting pressure on the FGS to continue the talks with PL. Also, debt relief and arms embargo =/= constitution. The constitution seems to be taking longer than expected, which is why they're being more flexible with debt relief and arms embargo.
But we'll see how it happens. I personally believe that FGS and PL will come to a separate agreement that will include some amendments of the outcome from the last NCC, with their input. If I'm wrong, I'll own up to it. But I can guarantee you that it will happen.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
Constitution is not taking longer. It was always meant to begin July and end within this sitting so July-September.
We’ve now reached the final part where parliament will vote on it once it’s turned into constitutional language.
Debt relief is very important to the politics of the country. Once the FGS has access to billions in loans, FMS’ power will collapse. For the US to push for this without agreement from all FMS is a big change of policy
GaradShabeel
VIP
I'm meant longer in the sense that a stakeholder is missing, and thus complicates the original plan since theoretically talks are meant to continue now according to IC.
But you're of the opinion that it will not matter and will still be able to implement without them. Again, I do think that HSM can push it through the legislative body and turn into fruition. Though it will not be the final constitution, even if we exclude SL from this context.
The power of the FMS will sure diminish with loans, but not all FMS have equal power today either. The FMS that are onboard with FGS are those with least power. And the change of policy is purely flexibility, since their approach on FMS remains the same.
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bidenkulaha
GalYare
In what way has it taken longer? Everything has been remarkably on schedule. Sure there was pressure for talks with PL but HSM cleverly outplayed Deni by inviting PL stakeholders to his opposition talks and painting Deni as being unreasonable. Since then Deni has made that even easier by saying there’ll no agreement and no change of completing the constitution without SL. And SL is not coming so the IC will give up or have given up on finding agreement with Deni.I'm meant longer in the sense that a stakeholder is missing, and thus complicates the original plan since theoretically talks are meant to continue now according to IC.
But you're of the opinion that it will not matter and will still be able to implement without them. Again, I do think that HSM can push it through the legislative body and turn into fruition. Though it will not be the final constitution, even if we exclude the one that SL will do on their own
One thing I’ll add is Deni has rejected agreements signed by PL in the past like election agreement, national security architecture and natural resources agreement. This has harmed his argument that PL itself is against the agreements HSM is pushing for as HSM says he and Farmaajo already signed them with Gaas.
Another thing I have to pick up on is there’s not going to be any separate deal with PL. HSM has made this his read line. PL will likely be allowed to not take part but they’ll also lose the benefits that come with the FGS, whether that’s for example oil production in the South, tax revenue from the new centralised revenue office, future projects funded by FGS loans etc. I can see a quick collapse from PL when the FGS has control of the South and is able to fund states in a big way.
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