Basically instead of having one common Somali national identity we have all these states acting in their own interests, and not as a country. Like you said, this can easily lead to large conflicts. And it probably will someday.
No doubt clan/state warfare will happen, we have hirshabelle Xawadle and Abgaal both threatening Puntlann afar, while the Galkacyo fiasco is brewing into heat is signs for all to see where federalism will take us.
Quite frankly the most to lose in this Federalism in the long term is puntland folks, but the funny thing is they dont see that way, the moment the clouds fade they Puntland will see Sool and Sanaag gone, and Galmudug expansionist upto Burtinle with force claiming their by DASTUUR as they are winning the hearts and minds of disfranchised clans such as Dirs,Shekihal, Madhibanaan and even Leelkase reality will win, and most of all Somaliland's actions will be nail in the coffin for Puntland and the rest will fall like Dominoes, just watch and see!
So where were the somaliweynist when Hassan sheikh went to Ethiopia and jigjiga while claiming that kilinka shanaad belongs to Ethiopia effectively renouncing all claims Somalia had over that region?
Just like Hassan shiekh approved the xamar port deal & berbera port & UAE Military base deal likewise farmaajo approved the bosaso deal.
HSM was and is a un-patriotic thief, and Farmaajos winning the elections by the backs of Hawiyes says it all, and they Hawiye cheered for farmaajos winning the most, sxb southerners unlike us north dont see qabiil in the same lense!
Sxb that's clan wars which still goes on to this day unfortunately. Infact, i believe it will reduce it when everyone concentrates on the development of their states and respect each other teritory. We are clan based society sxb, we need to acknowledge that
Sxb i truly understand your side of the talks of developments and i appreciate it wishing that it truly was what we Somalis wish for, inshallahi yaa rab
Back to reality, Somalis are synonym with warfare, out histories shows we admire and love war and those who wage it (such as some loving Aideed, some others Cabudlahi Yuusuf and others Cumar jeesow and so on) go and see Galkacyo to prove my point, that future conflict with heavy weapons is most likely to happen there, clan war has no doubt with federalism stepped into state warfare, and by judging the history of the H*T*S particularly HG were the only clan to use heavy weapons during clan warfare, wallahi going to both Galkacyo side is like stepping into NORTH KOREA/South Galkacyo (no laughter, pure cugdad, the intense hate is high) and SOUTH KOREA/NorthGalkacyo (Laughter and development arise).
Cumar Mahmoud had a shir if could recall twice on the matter i am speaking, on why federalism only hurts clans that border the states, the beesha CM said that if the 1.5 Gobol do succeed in making a federal state that they will be the first casualties of state warfare just like dhullos are on Somaliland and Puntaland borders.
They CM refused to accept Galmudug seeing as existential threat, they even suggested to weaken its leadership by making an power-share between Galmudug and Ahlu sunnah, as in President goes Galmudug and Vice-president goes ahlu naar to weaken the existing state galmudug.
Sxb fedealism is good in short term until amisom leaves, then comes WHAMP reality of s clan/state warefare.
