Comedy country
Ethiopia is exposed
- Thread starter novanova
- Start date
Aside from being a poverty hub that masks itself with an outward image of prosperity, Ethiopia continues its usual expansionist and destabilizing agenda, this time toward Eritrea.
They’re now trying to balkanize Eritrea and push federalism onto it, just like they did with Somalia.
@EritreanPost_ come look at this, these people will never rest from their delusions
Eritrea remains one of the most self-reliant nations in Africa, rejecting foreign aid and pushing homegrown solutions. Similarly, Somalia’s economy is increasingly driven by a resilient locally driven private sector and strong diaspora investment.
So imagine the absurdity of claiming we can’t stand without Ethiopia, when in reality, they’re one of the main obstacles holding the region back.
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Federalism isn't that bad tbh, but Eritrea existing is goodAside from being a poverty hub that masks itself with an outward image of prosperity, Ethiopia continues its usual expansionist and destabilizing agenda, this time toward Eritrea.
They’re now trying to balkanize Eritrea and push federalism onto it, just like they did with Somalia.
@EritreanPost_ come look at this, these people will never rest from their delusions
Eritrea remains one of the most self-reliant nations in Africa, rejecting foreign aid and pushing homegrown solutions. Similarly, Somalia’s economy is increasingly driven by a resilient locally driven private sector and strong diaspora investment.
So imagine the absurdity of claiming we can’t stand without Ethiopia, when in reality, they’re one of the main obstacles holding the region back.
Decentralization isn't bad but that's not what that person in that tweet is calling for which is fragmentation basically bunch of regions split apart that act against eachother instead of with one another.
Cant wait for realisation to hit Ethiopian nationalists, but still honestly surprised on how they still keep a good image worldwide and can afford to go on such rants, first of all how do they still have troops in Somalia ? Abiy is really smart tbh, hes the only thing keeping that cursed country togheter
It's going hit them with the greatest brutality, only a few Ethiopians are honest and real about it but mostly because they want to de-legitimize and discredit the other ethnic group they see as the ruling faction not necessarily because they genuinely care about the country's development.
They have them there because they need the money, they get payed for having troops in Somalia by UN/US.
But thats driedd up now, now that funding has been cut so their soldiers are starving and their army over stretched soo it will implode in due time.
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We always say its gonna happen soon but I believe it will still take some years, Abiy has a real talent for keeping the country togheter
If Abiy doesn’t get the IMF bailout which is currently on hold, it’s unlikely he can hold the country together. Ethiopia has been propped up by external support for years, and without it, the cracks are showing.
The same thing happened under Meles Zenawi. Ethiopia was on the brink of collapse back then too,
European Parliament Calls for Sanctions on Ethiopia
The European Parliament is calling on the European Union’s executive to impose tough sanctions on the Ethiopian government.
amharic.voanews.com
until they secured U.S. backing by joining the 'War on Terror':
Ethiopia reaps U.S. aid by enlisting in war on terror and hiring influential lobbyists - ICIJ
One dramatic act sets Ethiopia apart from the array of countries with poor human rights records that have become United States counterterrorism allies since the September 11, 2001, attacks: With U.S. backing, it invaded a neighboring country and overthrew a Taliban-like Islamist movement.
www.icij.org
But Abiy doesn’t have that luxury. The AMISOM-style funding has dried up, and the IMF has delayed support. On top of that, Ethiopia is dealing with: Capital flight, Investor pullout, Mass emigration of skilled workers, Multiple active insurgencies across regions
So while Abiy may seem like he's holding things together, it’s mostly due to inertia and international scaffolding. If that support fully dries up, the situation could unravel quickly.
I'm sure the economic situation will get worse due to Abiy's lack of transparency and botched policies but I don't think the country will fall apart anytime soon. If his government was able to weather the destructive Tigray War (remember that aid was temporarily cut off for Ethiopia during that war) then hardly anything will. And I think that comes down to the ENDF having a monopoly on violence and always being loyal to whatever regime runs the place. A stark constrast to Somalia's military having numerous defectors back in the Kacaan days and now the SNA having little trust with FGS.If Abiy doesn’t get the IMF bailout which is currently on hold, it’s unlikely he can hold the country together. Ethiopia has been propped up by external support for years, and without it, the cracks are showing.
The same thing happened under Meles Zenawi. Ethiopia was on the brink of collapse back then too,
European Parliament Calls for Sanctions on Ethiopia
The European Parliament is calling on the European Union’s executive to impose tough sanctions on the Ethiopian government.
until they secured U.S. backing by joining the 'War on Terror':
Ethiopia reaps U.S. aid by enlisting in war on terror and hiring influential lobbyists - ICIJ
One dramatic act sets Ethiopia apart from the array of countries with poor human rights records that have become United States counterterrorism allies since the September 11, 2001, attacks: With U.S. backing, it invaded a neighboring country and overthrew a Taliban-like Islamist movement.
But Abiy doesn’t have that luxury. The AMISOM-style funding has dried up, and the IMF has delayed support. On top of that, Ethiopia is dealing with: Capital flight, Investor pullout, Mass emigration of skilled workers, Multiple active insurgencies across regions
So while Abiy may seem like he's holding things together, it’s mostly due to inertia and international scaffolding. If that support fully dries up, the situation could unravel quickly.
When i think about this you are right they kinda did have a monopoly on state violence but that's changing as well.
Where you are wrong is assuming there aren't defectionns. There are large defections from ENDF to Fano
Elite Ethiopian Commandos Defect to Fano, Escalating Tensions in Amhara Region - DNE Africa
A group of highly trained airborne commandos from the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has defected to the Fano militia in the Amhara region, a move
africa.dailynewsegypt.com
Its honestly crazy to me that the ENDF that comitted atrocities in Tigray once served TPLF. Either there has been a major shift in the ethnic make up of the military under Abiy's administration (is it now mostly Oromo?) or ENDF will do anything to put down revolts.When i think about this you are right they kinda did have a monopoly on state violence but that's changing as well.
Where you are wrong is assuming there aren't defectionns. There are large defections from ENDF to Fano
Elite Ethiopian Commandos Defect to Fano, Escalating Tensions in Amhara Region - DNE Africa
A group of highly trained airborne commandos from the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) has defected to the Fano militia in the Amhara region, a move
But yeah you are right that cracks are starting to show within the military. Amhara at least are starting to realize that serving a government that is practically comitting a genocide on you is foolish and no amount of patriotism will justify such acts.
New World
the people's champ
Isn't the north of Ethiopia in decline, both power and birth rate? The only hope for them is to leave and create a new country. Isn't northern Ethiopia experiencing a decline in both power and birth rates? Their only hope may be to leave and establish a new country.
The ENDF has always been mixed, but under Abiy, many Tigrayan officers were purged. It's less about ethnicity now and more about loyalty to him.
During the Tigray war, Abiy had Eritrean military support he doesn’t anymore, which changes the balance.
And yeah, the Amhara suffered heavily under TPLF-era policies millions affected. Before that, Tigrayans and Oromos faced repression too. Ethiopia’s history is sadly full of cycles of ethnic violence and revenge.
Ngl being rich in Addis Ababa is better than in Somalia tho
https://www.theguardian.com/global-...ritrean-forces-crimes-against-humanity-report
This is actually disgusting. These never ending conflicts aren’t good for anybody.
This is actually disgusting. These never ending conflicts aren’t good for anybody.
Absolutely horrific, every detail of it.
There needs to be an honest reckoning in Ethiopia about the historical roots of these cycles of violence. Real, lasting peace won’t come from military dominance or ethnic hegemony. It requires abandoning expansionist and destabilizing ambitions and instead embracing cooperation and coexistence.
Like much of the developed world did in the past, Ethiopians must move beyond feudal, zero-sum power struggles. The focus should shift toward economic cooperation, equitable development, and inclusive governance.
Trade between communities fosters peace. Market development creates jobs and opportunities. That’s the only viable path forward.
The direction Ethiopia is heading is very grim. Abiy and PP made too many enemies in recent history. Their war with the TPLF is a prelude to Tigray separating, the Amhara haven’t ruled Ethiopia since the 60s and feuding with the Oromo ENDF. I don’t see how Ethiopia will recover from this.
@Hilmaam @Barkhadle1520 @Midas @novanova @Neptune This is exactly what i mean about export centric economy of Ethiopia and the lack of domestic market. Which is what is keeping them poor. They are exporting electricity whilst 50% or more Ethiopians lack electricity.
They are even exporting their water to Djibouti. Mind you 60% of Ethiopians lack clean access to water. This groundwater replenished by the nearby river basin could give tens of millions of Ethiopians water access.
Of course the continued pointless mega vanity projects, whats the point of blowing your money on this?
Some more complaints about prioritizing external markets and vanity projects.
It also seems like Ethiopians don't understand how their economy functions in reality. Because i somehow suspect why they are exporting water and electricity is also because most people domestically don't have the purchasing power to pay for it.
Because lets say they start supplying water /electricity. People in Somalia pay 20-30 dollars a month for electricity.
The average Ethiopian household earned in an entire month was 15$ dollars in a 2018, now imagine how much less this must be since inflation has skyrocketed post Tigray War. https://addisstandard.com/economic-commentary-ethiopias-low-wage-is-a-curse-not-a-blessing/
According to this BBC article while a doctor in Somaliland earns 2000k a month , plus 800 in accommodations. The Ethiopian doctor earn 35 dollars a month. This is equivalent to what a Bajaaj driver would earn on a good day in Somalia. https://www.bbc.com/afaanoromoo/articles/c753n4ng3nno
I am unsure if we could fully put the blame on Abyi Ahmed, he did makes things worse but wages were abysmal before he came into office. It's something endemic to the Ethiopian economy.
He says:
''Ethiopian farmers are sandwiched between adverse global market conditions and weak domestic market" "They are compelled to produce at subsistence level, refraining from producing surpluses for domestic markets''
Basically that Ethiopian farmers don't bother producing surpluses and are stuck at subsistence because there are no consumers to purchase from them.
It makes sense to me how a farmer, pastoral or a fisherman in Somalia can earn up to 1200-3200 per month through just higher market integration. Because there are many consumers willing to buy it from them.
He also says:
''Third , the livelihood of those who do not depend on wages firmly hinges on the purchasing power of wage earners''
This is also implies producers in Somalia is carried by the purchasing power of wage earners in the towns. So they need earn of enough through wage earning to purchase and that's why it shows not only does Ethiopia have a weak domestic economy but also a weak service sector, financial sector and private sector/business economy unlike Somalia.
low wages → low demand → weak domestic economy → reliance on exports → persistent poverty is a cycle Ethiopia is stuck in.
They are even exporting their water to Djibouti. Mind you 60% of Ethiopians lack clean access to water. This groundwater replenished by the nearby river basin could give tens of millions of Ethiopians water access.
Of course the continued pointless mega vanity projects, whats the point of blowing your money on this?
Some more complaints about prioritizing external markets and vanity projects.
It also seems like Ethiopians don't understand how their economy functions in reality. Because i somehow suspect why they are exporting water and electricity is also because most people domestically don't have the purchasing power to pay for it.
Because lets say they start supplying water /electricity. People in Somalia pay 20-30 dollars a month for electricity.
The average Ethiopian household earned in an entire month was 15$ dollars in a 2018, now imagine how much less this must be since inflation has skyrocketed post Tigray War. https://addisstandard.com/economic-commentary-ethiopias-low-wage-is-a-curse-not-a-blessing/
According to this BBC article while a doctor in Somaliland earns 2000k a month , plus 800 in accommodations. The Ethiopian doctor earn 35 dollars a month. This is equivalent to what a Bajaaj driver would earn on a good day in Somalia. https://www.bbc.com/afaanoromoo/articles/c753n4ng3nno
I am unsure if we could fully put the blame on Abyi Ahmed, he did makes things worse but wages were abysmal before he came into office. It's something endemic to the Ethiopian economy.
He says:
''Ethiopian farmers are sandwiched between adverse global market conditions and weak domestic market" "They are compelled to produce at subsistence level, refraining from producing surpluses for domestic markets''
Basically that Ethiopian farmers don't bother producing surpluses and are stuck at subsistence because there are no consumers to purchase from them.
It makes sense to me how a farmer, pastoral or a fisherman in Somalia can earn up to 1200-3200 per month through just higher market integration. Because there are many consumers willing to buy it from them.
He also says:
''Third , the livelihood of those who do not depend on wages firmly hinges on the purchasing power of wage earners''
This is also implies producers in Somalia is carried by the purchasing power of wage earners in the towns. So they need earn of enough through wage earning to purchase and that's why it shows not only does Ethiopia have a weak domestic economy but also a weak service sector, financial sector and private sector/business economy unlike Somalia.
low wages → low demand → weak domestic economy → reliance on exports → persistent poverty is a cycle Ethiopia is stuck in.
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Reading this back now, it actually makes a lot of sense why farmer incomes went up and why the private sector, purchasing power, and consumption all grew once the Somali government decontrolled the market and let people buy and sell more freely.And even in the late '80s, Somalia was still growing economically, private businesses were booming, grain production increased, and people had more disposable income.
This is from 1987 Business Magazine
It says:
''“Private sector activity literally has exploded. New stores are springing up rapidly in most of Somalia's cities and towns; numerous minibuses now operate; and drugstores which numbered only 20 several vears ago now are in the hundreds. Consumer goods are available more readily in greater variety and quantity throughout the country.”
“The response of the Somali economy has been impressive. The dramatic increase in grain production since liberalization of cereals marketing has helped Somalia become self-sufficient in maize and sorghum. Farmer income, based on relative prices of grain and consumer goods, has risen. Urban welfare also has improved as prices for domestic foodstuffs are relatively lower”
Here it says:
There has been a notable increase in farmer income and there is greater disposable income throughout the economy. Other results of recent reforms include significant increase in private sector investment as a percentage of GDP and corresponding new employment generation.
The government made real policy reforms, supported farmers, encouraged private sector growth and tried to adapt , not perfect, but it wasn’t some cartoon villain suppressing everyone for fun.
It also explains how Somalia managed to become agriculturally self-sufficient in the 1980s and even generate big surpluses. With stronger market integration and higher purchasing power in the towns (thanks to private sector growth, increase in logistic services and more financial activity), farmers had a much larger consumer base to sell to.
The flip side, though, is that while incomes rose, inflation ate away at the benefits. Somalis didn’t fully reap the rewards of higher wages and farm output because the currency lost value so quickly. Inflation rose due to the central bank printing money to finance new expenses to support the 1 million Megistu displaced into Somalia.
Now imagine how much worse it is for Ethiopia not only stuck with extremely low wages, but also hit by high inflation and high living costs on top of that.
I even wonder if a lot of people in Ogaden just bypass this by avoiding the Ethiopian birr altogether and using the dollar instead.
Been digging into the role of markets in all this , pretty interesting stuff to compare and contrast.
Exports are good it means u produce something and creating jobs. Gerd dam has plenty of electricity it can export and still expand to rural areas and rest of country. That additional cash from other countries can be used to build more distribution line. Ethiopia is one of fastesr growing economy in Africa. The imf places them in category called emerging giant. They are African power in making many Somalis don’t want to see it because of rivalry but it’s true a giant is emerging many parts of Adis indistinguishable from west
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