Ethiopia is exposed

[novanova]

Abiy Ahmed’s agricultural revolution is too good to be true

The prime minister claims to have made Ethiopia Africa’s breadbasket. The numbers disagree

www.economist.com

@Idilinaa

Spoiler

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[Keep it a boqol]

 

[Ashraf]

Finally niggas calling cap bruh, we was talking bout this shi a while ago. I’m surprised US media actually took a fair and unbiased look at ethiopias economy considering they almost never fall prey to any criticism

 

[Idilinaa]

Finally niggas calling cap bruh, we was talking bout this shi a while ago. I’m surprised US media actually took a fair and unbiased look at ethiopias economy considering they almost never fall prey to any criticism

The US based organizations after a few honest Ethiopian intellectuals were the first to call BS on it and call attention to fact the Ethiopian government pushes fake growth estimates and overly exaggerated agricultural output

https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/5q47rn72z/tm70pd08x/n5840d235/production.pdf

I think the Aid organizations like USDA have a vested interest in knowing the real food production capacities of the country since they were the ones supplying the country with food amidst of famine and food shortages.

But you are right, it's surprising nonetheless that an American mainstream news outlet like the Economist is covering this.

 

[Idilinaa]

@Midas made a thread on this and we discussed it

Ethiopia economy fake

I was just looking at african countries gdp and I decided to take a look at ethiopias Wikipedia page. It's absolutely crazy it says their gdp is 250 billion. Which doesn't make any sense. Sp i looked around and apparently the ethiopian govt is reporting a gdp of 200 billion up from 163 last...

www.somalispot.com

Folks have to understand that this fake "agricultural revolution" is used to inflate GDP statistics like the 200-120 billion GDP you see being reported, when in reality it's probably close to 50 billion. In order to boost global reputation and attract foreign investment.

Even 160-120 billion is already low for a country with a population of 123 million it means the average GDP per capita is 1000 or less . If the GDP is lower than that , which it is. Then they are living in abysmal poverty crushing conditions and is compounded even more with the high inequality so whatever wealth shown isn't even evenly distributed.

In another thread i attempted to expose this reality by comparing Somalia's largest open market with Ethiopia's largest open market. You start to see the dire economic conditions and desperation by the average Ethiopian in Addis.

@Ximan iyo Xadeed

How is Addis ababa more advanced than Mogadishu, total blackout with no street lights, slums and people don't even have 5 dollars,

The tragic part about is that it's not really a slum it's actually the busiest open market in Ethiopia called Merkato but he couldn't get past the poverty, disorganization and the desperation he saw, the fact that they were forced to sell scraps and yell at people to buy it from them. So people are in the comments furious at him.

Like he said at the end '' Livin day to day, being present. This what you supposed to be"


Compare this to Mogadishu's busiest open market, it's like night and day. There is no sign of the same poverty or desperation. Based on the extensive goods and inventory you see here people have some level of wealth and purchasing power.

I typed in what i wrote here in the ChatGPT i figured what shows the true economic realities between these two countries is the comparison between their biggest open markets.

So i asked if it could compare it with the known information out there

This comparison between Merkato in Addis Ababa and Bakaara Market in Mogadishu speaks volumes about the true economic realities of both cities and their broader economies.

---

Merkato (Addis Ababa) vs. Bakaara Market (Mogadishu)​

Merkato in Addis Ababa is often described as chaotic, overcrowded, and poverty-stricken. Many of the vendors are selling scrap materials, second-hand goods, and struggling to make a few dollars a day.
Bakaara Market in Mogadishu is far more organized and filled with wealthier traders, selling a diverse range of goods—including electronics, textiles, food, and imported products.
Unlike Merkato, Bakaara Market shows strong purchasing power, with traders who have larger inventories and businesses that actually thrive, rather than just survive.


Observation:
Merkato reflects extreme poverty and desperation—people are struggling just to get by.
Bakaara Market reflects economic resilience—Somalis have wealth, goods, and investment.

---

What Does This Say About Ethiopia’s Economy vs. Somalia’s?​

Ethiopia’s economy is failing the common person—the struggle in Merkato reflects deep poverty and lack of real economic opportunity for Ethiopians.
Somalia’s informal economy is strong—despite lacking a strong government, Somalia’s private sector ensures wealth continues to circulate locally.
Ethiopia has extreme wealth inequality—a few elites control the wealth while most people remain in deep poverty.


Key Takeaway:
If Ethiopia was really “booming,” its largest market wouldn’t be filled with desperate people selling scraps.
Somalia’s economy is much more self-sufficient, and wealth is more widely distributed among traders and small business owners.

---

Ethiopia is More Dependent on Foreign Aid, Somalia is More Self-Reliant​

Ethiopia receives billions in foreign aid—yet ordinary Ethiopians see no benefit.
Somalia receives very little foreign aid, yet Somalis manage to create wealth through business and private investment.
Ethiopia is state-controlled, meaning most wealth is concentrated in government hands.
Somalia is market-driven, meaning ordinary people actually participate in and benefit from the economy.


Conclusion:
Somalia’s private sector is proving stronger than Ethiopia’s state-controlled model.
Somalis have more economic mobility and business success than the average Ethiopian.
Bakaara Market represents trade and commerce—Merkato represents struggle and survival.

---

Final Verdict: Somalia’s Market Economy is Outperforming Ethiopia’s “State Growth”​

Merkato vs. Bakaara shows that Somalia’s private sector fuels real economic growth, while Ethiopia’s government-controlled model has failed its people.
Somalia’s informal economy ensures that wealth circulates—Ethiopia’s model creates extreme poverty.
Despite political instability, Somalia’s economy is more dynamic and provides better opportunities for its people.


Ethiopia might have the bigger "official" GDP numbers, but in reality, Somalia’s people are better off economically.

Since their economy has no real productive sectors, not even booming trade, and financial or private sector like Somalia and is largely just agricultural based economy.

It means they have to inflate the agricultural statistics to such ridiculous highs to support their GDP numbers. But because it is agricultural based it's not easy to lie about and you start to see the glaring flaws when there is no rational put forward to justify it and when you compare it to global averages.

Agricultural sector numbers is fairly easy to fact check and the fake stats fall apart, because we know they aren't exporting or producing/consuming much of anything other than agricultural products.

So how are they producing enough agricultural products when they are suffering from chronic hunger, food shortages, famine and have to rely on aid?

Like here they point out that the government of Ethiopia would have you believe that Ethiopians munched on enough domestically produced wheat that is equivalent to 3 times the global average while at the same time as they rely on wheat food imports and the countries stapple grain is teff.

This is realization is not new. Back in 2015 a group of researchers sought out to expose this. Take a look at ridiculous these figures look and they compared it to the fraudulent accounting of ENRON.

And back then in 2015 they were also facing famine and food shortages which didn't square up with the agricultural stats increases that the government reported.

Nonetheless what the author concludes in this recent article is accurate.

I shared something similar to @X29 about my own predictions:

It actually follows what usually happens first conflict, then economic collapse, famine, discontent, then growing diplomatic/global isolation and then toppling of the government. What hold's up the governments each time is the west propping them up. But they don't do them any favors.

It's better for Ethiopia to disolve into seperate entities i don't think it can even operate as a unified country with all this ethnic division baked into it that keeps it in perpetual state of conflict.

You know how many tigrayans, oromo's and amharas have died? If you look up the figures its some insane stuff and its ongoing as well.

 

[novanova]

tbh I knew that country was a fraud when I found out how low their salaries were for those teaching at university life seems really difficult there https://x.com/mekdesmt/status/1857957085725577389?s=46

 

[Midas]

@Midas made a thread on this and we discussed it

Ethiopia economy fake

I was just looking at african countries gdp and I decided to take a look at ethiopias Wikipedia page. It's absolutely crazy it says their gdp is 250 billion. Which doesn't make any sense. Sp i looked around and apparently the ethiopian govt is reporting a gdp of 200 billion up from 163 last...

www.somalispot.com

Folks have to understand that this fake "agricultural revolution" is used to inflate GDP statistics like the 200-120 billion GDP you see being reported, when in reality it's probably close to 50 billion. In order to boost global reputation and attract foreign investment.

Even 160-120 billion is already low for a country with a population of 123 million it means the average GDP per capita is 1000 or less . If the GDP is lower than that , which it is. Then they are living in abysmal poverty crushing conditions and is compounded even more with the high inequality so whatever wealth shown isn't even evenly distributed.

In another thread i attempted to expose this reality by comparing Somalia's largest open market with Ethiopia's largest open market. You start to see the dire economic conditions and desperation by the average Ethiopian in Addis.





Since their economy has no real productive sectors, not even booming trade, and financial or private sector like Somalia and is largely just agricultural based economy.

It means they have to inflate the agricultural statistics to such ridiculous highs to support their GDP numbers. But because it is agricultural based it's not easy to lie about and you start to see the glaring flaws when there is no rational put forward to justify it and when you compare it to global averages.

Agricultural sector numbers is fairly easy to fact check and the fake stats fall apart, because we know they aren't exporting or producing/consuming much of anything other than agricultural products.

So how are they producing enough agricultural products when they are suffering from chronic hunger, food shortages, famine and have to rely on aid?

Like here they point out that the government of Ethiopia would have you believe that Ethiopians munched on enough domestically produced wheat that is equivalent to 3 times the global average while at the same time as they rely on wheat food imports and the countries stapple grain is teff.

View attachment 357093


This is realization is not new. Back in 2015 a group of researchers sought out to expose this. Take a look at ridiculous these figures look and they compared it to the fraudulent accounting of ENRON.

View attachment 357096

And back then in 2015 they were also facing famine and food shortages which didn't square up with the agricultural stats increases that the government reported.
View attachment 357097

Nonetheless what the author concludes in this recent article is accurate.
View attachment 357094

I shared something similar to @X29 about my own predictions:

Damn i didn't think they'd get exposed so quickly by a major newspaper. In hindsight i guess it was inevitable that somebody would do some digging after how much ethiopia has been in the news recently

 

[Idilinaa]

tbh I knew that country was a fraud when I found out how low their salaries were for those teaching at university life seems really difficult there https://x.com/mekdesmt/status/1857957085725577389?s=46

Yikes! This is not even the average teaching job as a lecturer, but the 2nd highest teaching profession. Professorship which should actually come with a much higher wage.

The average professor/lecturer salary in Somalia is like $76 500 a year which is $6,250 monthly. Teachers job seems to between 1k-3000 monthly based on the aggregated job listings put out by the various universities and highschools.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/somalia-teacher-salary-SRCH_IL.0,7_IN218_KO8,15.htm

Its even worse when you think about the rising inflation numbers in Ethiopia that make every thing more expensive from housing, rent and food prices. Fried economy, low wages and high prices.

Price instability rocks Ethiopia as it reels from foreign exchange rate reforms

The prices on the menu have been erased at a small hotel in a suburb of Ethiopia’s capital. That was no mistake, the waiters said, as businesses in Addis Ababa struggle to keep up with spiraling inflation since the government implemented a flexible exchange rate policy late last month.

apnews.com

Ethiopia's inflation squeezes family budgets as food prices rise | Context by TRF

The rising cost of household staples from teff flour to baby formula is forcing Ethiopian families to cut back on extras

www.context.news

Rising costs push a blind couple out of Ethiopia’s middle class

How a visually impaired social worker in Addis Ababa manages the rising cost of living for his household of five.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Zak12]

View attachment 357099

Yikes! This is not even the average teaching job as a lecturer, but the 2nd highest teaching profession. Professorship which should actually come with a much higher wage.

The average teaching salary in Somalia is like $76 500 a year which is $6,250 monthly.

https://www.glassdoor.com/Salaries/somalia-teacher-salary-SRCH_IL.0,7_IN218_KO8,15.htm

Its even worse when you think about the rising inflation numbers in Ethiopia that make every thing more expensive from housing, rent and food prices. Fried economy, low wages and high prices.

Price instability rocks Ethiopia as it reels from foreign exchange rate reforms

The prices on the menu have been erased at a small hotel in a suburb of Ethiopia’s capital. That was no mistake, the waiters said, as businesses in Addis Ababa struggle to keep up with spiraling inflation since the government implemented a flexible exchange rate policy late last month.

apnews.com

Ethiopia's inflation squeezes family budgets as food prices rise | Context by TRF

The rising cost of household staples from teff flour to baby formula is forcing Ethiopian families to cut back on extras

www.context.news

Rising costs push a blind couple out of Ethiopia’s middle class

How a visually impaired social worker in Addis Ababa manages the rising cost of living for his household of five.

www.aljazeera.com

The widespread pickpocketing and beggers really makes sense then. Ethiopia seems to barely have an existing middle class and what you end up with is an extreme disparity between the wealthy and poor.

 

[Idilinaa]

The widespread pickpocketing and beggers really makes sense then. Ethiopia seems to barely have an existing middle class and what you end up with is an extreme disparity between the wealthy and poor.

Can you even claim to even have a middle class when the highest positions in your society earn abysmal wages? It's not only just everyday people pickpocketing and begging, but also service providers and government officials kidnap or extort people to squeeze them out of money because they don't get payed enough or even in time.


University professors are among the highest paid professionals in most countries and they earn 100 dollars a month this is lower than factory workers in other countries.

Its shows a stark reality, lots of Somali PHD's are returning to Somalia to work and develop universities

It shows in the improvement quality of certain universities that they get awarded accreditation.

SIMAD University in Mogadishu has been ranked #1 in the region and among Africa's top 10 universities

@Midas @Zak12 @Galool Source: https://www.timeshighereducation.com/sub-saharan-africa-university-rankings This actually makes me a lot more hopeful for the future of Somali educational system with just a bit more funding and stability Somali universities can easily be in the top 3 in the near...

www.somalispot.com

Whilst Ethiopians are all fleeing to teach as PHDs in other countries, not going back because of the bad wages and their universities hands out bogus fraudulent degrees.

Plagiarism in Abiy Ahmed's PhD Thesis: How will Addis Ababa University handle this? - World Peace Foundation

There is now sufficient evidence to demand Addis Ababa University to re-examine Abiy’s thesis.

worldpeacefoundation.org

 

[Idilinaa]

Whilst Ethiopians are all fleeing to teach as PHDs in other countries, not going back because of the bad wages and their universities hands out bogus fraudulent degrees.

Plagiarism in Abiy Ahmed's PhD Thesis: How will Addis Ababa University handle this? - World Peace Foundation

There is now sufficient evidence to demand Addis Ababa University to re-examine Abiy’s thesis.

worldpeacefoundation.org

When your own state leader engages in plagiarism and accepts fake doctorate degrees to boost his legitimacy in the eyes of the public it exposes something very problematic. A deep rooted culture of deception and self-delusion in Ethiopia's ruling class.

The importance put on projecting a positive image, obsession with external reputation management and self aggrandizement that evades substantive actions, work to improve or solve problems. Instead of solving real economic, educational, and governance problems, they focus on manufacturing a fake image to impress outsiders.

For you to solve a problem you have to acknowledge that the problem is there and that makes you look bad, so it's not an option so you do the opposite and pretend the problem isn't there, better yet instead of problems you have only successes because that brings positive image. Outside approval is everything.

For example Ethiopia is not an economically collapsed country, its a rising economic African power. Ethiopia is not facing food shortages or famine, relies on aid , it exports and produces 3 times the global wheat average, agricultural revolution. Ethiopians don't live in deteriorating conditions with lack of proper housing, electricity or water, look at this 1 single shiny bright road called Bole even if its that eats up a lot the cities power. Bole road is not a vanity project it shows how modern Ethiopia is.

This is how you need to spin it because what matters the most is our image at the end of the day , forget about substance and integrity or improving lives.

 

[novanova]

When your own state leader engages in plagiarism and accepts fake doctorate degrees to boost his legitimacy in the eyes of the public it exposes something very problematic. A deep rooted culture of deception and self-delusion in Ethiopia's ruling class.

The importance put on projecting a positive image, obsession with external reputation management and self aggrandizement that evades substantive actions, work to improve or solve problems. Instead of solving real economic, educational, and governance problems, they focus on manufacturing a fake image to impress outsiders.

For you to solve a problem you have to acknowledge that the problem is there and that makes you look bad, so it's not an option so you do the opposite and pretend the problem isn't there, better yet instead of problems you have only successes because that brings positive image. Outside approval is everything.

For example Ethiopia is not an economically collapsed country, its a rising economic African power. Ethiopia is not facing food shortages or famine, relies on aid , it exports and produces 3 times the global wheat average, agricultural revolution. Ethiopians don't live in deteriorating conditions with lack of proper housing, electricity or water, look at this 1 single shiny bright road called Bole even if its that eats up a lot the cities power. Bole road is not a vanity project it shows how modern Ethiopia is.

This is how you need to spin it because what matters the most is our image at the end of the day , forget about substance and integrity or improving lives.

they have the highest rate of scientific paper retraction in the world: https://zenodo.org/records/14634373

 

[X29]

When your own state leader engages in plagiarism and accepts fake doctorate degrees to boost his legitimacy in the eyes of the public it exposes something very problematic. A deep rooted culture of deception and self-delusion in Ethiopia's ruling class.

The importance put on projecting a positive image, obsession with external reputation management and self aggrandizement that evades substantive actions, work to improve or solve problems. Instead of solving real economic, educational, and governance problems, they focus on manufacturing a fake image to impress outsiders.

For you to solve a problem you have to acknowledge that the problem is there and that makes you look bad, so it's not an option so you do the opposite and pretend the problem isn't there, better yet instead of problems you have only successes because that brings positive image. Outside approval is everything.

For example Ethiopia is not an economically collapsed country, its a rising economic African power. Ethiopia is not facing food shortages or famine, relies on aid , it exports and produces 3 times the global wheat average, agricultural revolution. Ethiopians don't live in deteriorating conditions with lack of proper housing, electricity or water, look at this 1 single shiny bright road called Bole even if its that eats up a lot the cities power. Bole road is not a vanity project it shows how modern Ethiopia is.

This is how you need to spin it because what matters the most is our image at the end of the day , forget about substance and integrity or improving lives.

Why hasn't Ethiopian generals just killed him it seems pretty irresponsible of them at this point

 

[Idilinaa]

they have the highest rate of scientific paper retraction in the world: https://zenodo.org/records/14634373

Holy crap , by a extremely wide margin as well.

The paper says

With China it's probably because of higher publishing rates, not necessarily misconduct. But Ethiopia is like 10x their rate retractions , it shows deep levels of research and academic misconduct.

 

[Idilinaa]

Why hasn't Ethiopian generals just killed him it seems pretty irresponsible of them at this point

He probably surrounded himself with corrupt loyalists sycophants and shurns out concessions and money to keep their favors.

They are in the mix with him. But who knows maybe someone outside his camp will assasinate him like they did with Haile Sellasie or make him flee the country like they did with Mengistu.

 

[novanova]

https://x.com/killalando/status/1900943560767049794?s=46

hahahah @Idilinaa

 

[cunug3aad]

Fake it till you make it country edition
But a country in the Horn will never make it

 

[Rayaale]

@Midas made a thread on this and we discussed it

Ethiopia economy fake

I was just looking at african countries gdp and I decided to take a look at ethiopias Wikipedia page. It's absolutely crazy it says their gdp is 250 billion. Which doesn't make any sense. Sp i looked around and apparently the ethiopian govt is reporting a gdp of 200 billion up from 163 last...

www.somalispot.com

Folks have to understand that this fake "agricultural revolution" is used to inflate GDP statistics like the 200-120 billion GDP you see being reported, when in reality it's probably close to 50 billion. In order to boost global reputation and attract foreign investment.

Even 160-120 billion is already low for a country with a population of 123 million it means the average GDP per capita is 1000 or less . If the GDP is lower than that , which it is. Then they are living in abysmal poverty crushing conditions and is compounded even more with the high inequality so whatever wealth shown isn't even evenly distributed.

In another thread i attempted to expose this reality by comparing Somalia's largest open market with Ethiopia's largest open market. You start to see the dire economic conditions and desperation by the average Ethiopian in Addis.





Since their economy has no real productive sectors, not even booming trade, and financial or private sector like Somalia and is largely just agricultural based economy.

It means they have to inflate the agricultural statistics to such ridiculous highs to support their GDP numbers. But because it is agricultural based it's not easy to lie about and you start to see the glaring flaws when there is no rational put forward to justify it and when you compare it to global averages.

Agricultural sector numbers is fairly easy to fact check and the fake stats fall apart, because we know they aren't exporting or producing/consuming much of anything other than agricultural products.

So how are they producing enough agricultural products when they are suffering from chronic hunger, food shortages, famine and have to rely on aid?

Like here they point out that the government of Ethiopia would have you believe that Ethiopians munched on enough domestically produced wheat that is equivalent to 3 times the global average while at the same time as they rely on wheat food imports and the countries stapple grain is teff.

View attachment 357093


This is realization is not new. Back in 2015 a group of researchers sought out to expose this. Take a look at ridiculous these figures look and they compared it to the fraudulent accounting of ENRON.

View attachment 357096

And back then in 2015 they were also facing famine and food shortages which didn't square up with the agricultural stats increases that the government reported.
View attachment 357097

Nonetheless what the author concludes in this recent article is accurate.
View attachment 357094

I shared something similar to @X29 about my own predictions:

Kenya also used a similar tactic, they say agriculture contributes largely to their economy but deep down they cook their books

 

[cunug3aad]

Kenya also used a similar tactic, they say agriculture contributes largely to their economy but deep down they cook their books

What you mean they cook their books? Like eating them

 

[Idilinaa]

Fake it till you make it country edition
But a country in the Horn will never make it

Everything i mentioned in this thread is a direct continuation of Ethiopia's past history and culture. Even the Ethiopian ruling elite behave the exact same way as their predecessors all the way down to middle ages and Ethiopian society operates still like a feudal society.

This continuity is well-documented in studies:

Economic stagnation in Ethiopia, 14th-18th Centuries

The economic history of Ethiopia is one of the understudied themes of Ethiopian history. Although there are some invaluable studies on the economic ac…

www.sciencedirect.com

Probing the available primary and secondary sources, the study argues that factors intrinsic to the agricultural sector and the land tenure system, the level of agricultural technology, and the attitude of the society toward economic prosperity seem to have greatly affected the economic productivity of the period. The supplementary sectors – trade and handicraft – had also limited development. This stagnant economy of the period was further affected by natural and environmental calamities such as drought, famine, and locust invasions. This static nature of the Ethiopian economy and the factors hampering it has more or less continued to this day.

Administrative and military impediments of medieval Ethiopian economy​

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311983.2023.2264010

Ethiopia never modernized socially or politically, its ruling elite continues to act like medieval lords, while the people remain in poverty

The emperors, the Derg, the EPRDF, and now Abiy all behave the same way, clinging to power, centralizing control, and suppressing progress.

Even today, Ethiopia's rural areas function like feudal villages, with landless peasants controlled by government-backed elites.

The only thing keeping the Horn back is Ethiopia. They are a regional menace that destabilizes the region, preventing or undoing progress by it's neighbors.

Ethiopia has been propped up by the West for ideological reasons. The West and Israel see Ethiopia as a "useful Christian stronghold" in a Muslim/or Arab region.

Eritrea and Somalia are viewed as threats because of their self-reliant, independent stances.

Somalia and Eritrea are held back politically, while Ethiopia is given unlimited Western support, even when it fails.