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UPDATE Civil war enters second year in Ethiopia

Leftside

Leftside

Abiys' 72 hours ultimatum has elapsed. It looks like he is starting to get cold feet. When is the showdown gonna start in mekelle ?
 
AbdiGeedi

AbdiGeedi

To keep your balance, you must keep moving.
@Django

It's obvious that the West won't be making a big fuss about Abiy's Tigray offensive. It wants to keep Ethiopia whole. I suspect that if TPLF retreats to mountains for guerrilla warfare, the West will buy its leadership out and the struggle won't be life-threatening to Ethiopia's integrity.

Look at the trajectory of the US/Israel/UAE/Egypt geopolitical moves in North East Africa. Mursi and Bashar were forced out. Afwerki is in the pocket. Egypt made it clear that Somalia is next on the agenda.

Ok. But where is Ethiopia in their plans? They by-passed it. And this is despite the fact that Egypt has serious issues with Ethiopia regarding the GERD dam. One can easily see that el Sisi does only what he is told to do by the US, Israel and the UAE. All three countries are supporting Ethiopia.

I wonder if the trio will now try to rock the boat of the Somalia-Somaliland problem through Egypt.

The West's main fear/dislike in the Horn is strong Muslim Somalia. However artificial the inclusion of Western Somalia in Ethiopia is, the West won't let it go from the Habashi control.
 
convincation

convincation

Soomaali waa Hawiyah Iyo Hashiyah
VIP
AbdiGeedi said:
1. South Korea analogy is flawed. That country is mono-ethnic, 100% Korean. South Korea's economic miracle is due to heavy US investment to counter communist China. Ethiopia lacks on both fronts.

2. Whoever wrote the above post is a cuck as Amharas are moving into Somali Region and taking important positions. Jijiga is likely to become an Amhara town like Addis Ababa in Oromia.
Click to expand...
1) the South Korean miracle was as a result of US intervention but not in the way you think. As a country with no natural resources they used the grants the US gave them for Korean troops while simultaneously getting their troops trained. This new income they got they re invested with almos no cotruption back into education and infrastructure which made a pathway for jobs and created more capital which was then reinvested into industry then into bigger industry then they took a leap of faith with the steel factory to make ships which was the single make or break factor for the country which fortunately for them was a make which they then reinvested into the bug businesses which then expanded into the global market and all this while their people got more and more educated. If you look at what abiys plan is this is almost 100% his approach since unlike Korea Ethiopia does have natural resources and the dam which can create the capital needed to replicate the Korean miracle and what place would look more attractive than a 100 million nation with a young population? So yh abiys good which is why I don’t like him I don’t want Ethiopia to rise they’ll just use this new found wealth to suppress us
2) amharas are still only 15% of the population in jijiga and live in one poor xafad on the northern outskirts of the city and unlike addis ababa (which amharic is the only language spoken in) jijiga the working language is somali and always will be so the amharas there speak somali and other than a few bandits know their place and that we can deport them at a moments notice. Only problem is qabilism jidwaq will do anything to keep jijiga theirs even bring in foreigners......
 
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