Egyptian President calls Somalia a Failed State in front of President HSM

[Riftvalley]

Somaliland belongs to all clans and people that are a part of it.
Who said it belongs to Isaaq? Do you know all Isaaq? Or Samaroon? Or Warsengeli?

There are effectively no Harti clans participating in the SL separatist project as of today.

The treacherous MOU might be the nail in the coffin for Samaroon and Cisse, so who will be left after?

 

[Dharbash]

HSM nodded his head and said Shukran for the insults

He’s not wrong, Somalia is a failed state but this guy just nodding away in agreement is so embarrassingly funny, most incompetent Somali president

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

There are effectively no Harti clans participating in the SL separatist project as of today.

The treacherous MOU might be the nail in the coffin for Samaroon and Cisse, so who will be left after?

Most people don't think like that and alliegiences switch from time to time.

 

[Dharbash]

Those weren't insults but facts. 30 years of conflict and we're stronger than ever with debt relief and the arms embargo lifted. In contrast, your entire "army" has been defeated by clan militias made up of ciyaalka xaafada forcing you to now claim oromo's all in the span of one year.

The biggest traitor was farmajo who considered our eternal enemy ethiopia allies, who used them to kill somali citizens in baydhabo and planned to give them 4 ports with military bases in each of them so spare us the fake patriotism when you accuse xassan of being slow to react or complicit in this whole episode.
By the way the maritime court case was initiated by xassan himself.

Farmajo didn’t meet with Somalias enemies in the UAE, he didn’t sell off our ocean to Ethiopia and go on a fake damage control mission after and this fat f*ck is losing to Arsenal and even letting ex Arsenal leaders be ministers

Forget being a terrible president who only rules xamar, this incompetent hutu is a security threat

 

[Dharbash]

Humility is the path towards success. Everything Sisi said is the truth, what should he just pretend and lie?

The reason we have these problems is evident just from even reading this small thread.

Somalis want to live a lie
Most delusional group of people

 

[Riftvalley]

Most people don't think like that and alliegiences switch from time to time.

Is that the reality or what you like to believe? Hartis have politically and militarily displayed a wide scale rejection of the separatist project. It is more than a temporary change of allegiance.

The winds of are change growing up in Awdal.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

Landers consider themselves to be a different ethnicity to Somalis which is why degrading and dehumanising other Somalis and the Somali name itself comes so easy to them.

Terms like Z******** where coined by UK landers who are notorious for badmouthing anything Somali to ajanabis. Also, landers go on Twitter spaces with xenophobic South Africans, African Americans and even Zionists to instigate hatred against Somalis. This is deranged behaviour that Somalis with other actual nationalities like Djiboutian, Kenyan or Ethiopian don’t engage in.

No matter how tense things get between Somalis, no other group goes out of their way to demean the Somali name to outsiders like landers. It’s time for actual Somalis to treat you lot like outsiders such as Rendille,Oromos, Afars etc.

I don't know why people say that. I heard z******* a while ago and it was aimed at everyone - it was first used by non-somalis I think Only online have I seen it used in the Somaliland/Somalia propaganda to mean Somali's not from Somaliland. I guess they adapted the phrase.

If the political situation improved I'm pretty sure most people would move on from the hateful rhetorics. The political differences creates hostility.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

Landers are Somali too.

If people consider themselves a different nationality that's fine. The republic of Somaliland has existed longer than the Somali Republic so arguements can be made.

The more interesting point is why southern Somalis have this fervent Pan-somali attitude as if all somali speaking people some how belong to them. Is it something the Italians left in the water? One people, one land one ruler?

What's with Landers obsession with the former colonial powers? It's as if their existance started from 1960s.

 

[TekNiKo]

Will the humiliation ever end? Egypt wont even let their own fellow Arab Palestinians in through their border without paying thousands in bribes what makes you think they will intervene in Somalia against Amxaar?




Culusow is nodding like a puppeteered doll controlled by his ventriloquist. This is the fate of the cursed progeny of Soomaal!

 

[galhareeri]

Will the humiliation ever end? Egypt wont even let their own fellow Arab Palestinians in through their border without paying thousands in bribes what makes you think they will intervene in Somalia against Amxaar?




Culusow is nodding like a puppeteered doll controlled by his ventriloquist. This is the fate of the cursed progeny of Soomaal!

Dude understand isur in gaza is that sisi doesnot eant hamas becos they are muslim brotherhood understand wah also if ethiopia has aces to red sea it means they wil attack egypt from there incase war over nile happens. Understand. 101poltics low 68 iq

 

[Xoriyo]

I don't know why people say that. I heard s a while ago and it was aimed at everyone - it was first used by non-somalis I think for Somalis in the UK who are known to be wild. Only online have I seen it used in the Somaliland/Somalia propaganda to mean Somali's not from Somaliland. I guess they adapted the phrase.

If the political situation improved I'm pretty sure most people would move on from the hateful rhetorics. The political differences creates hostility.

It was not first used by non Somalis. It was coined by cuqdad ridden UK landers as a way to insult Somalia. Ajanabis have only started using it recently.

This goes beyond politics. We didn’t see Chinese from Hong Kong turning their ethnicity into a slur during their confrontation with other Chinese from mainland China. They might have been egged on by Westerners but they didn’t cross the line of degrading their ethnicity.

Other Somalis like Hawiye and Darood have political differences too but you don’t see them running around online vilifying anything Somali and cosigning with Zionists and gaalos against us.

There is no moving on from this. I don’t think you secessionists realise how actual Somalis view you lot now and how damaging this whole episode has been.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

There still is no govt in Xamar which is what President Sisi was eluding too He was using your president and his begging for help as an example of what not to do

@Zak12's analysis is correct. Somaliland's secession window of opportunity were the 13 years between 1991 and 2004, the fall of the Kacaan and the establishment of the TFG. This is when there was maximal contrast between Somaliland and the rest of Somalia. After the establishment of the TFG, Somalia's central gov has been on a upward trend in terms of national legitimacy and international credibility. Compare the TFG of 2004 with the FGS of 2014 and that of 2024. You can see the trend upwards, although it is quite slow.

In Jan 2024 Somaliland:

• Lacks consensus among the five clans of British Somaliland regarding secession. Secession has majority support only among the Isaaq.
• Lacks control over most of the territory of British Somaliland. The geographic halfway point of British Somaliland runs a few kilometers west of Oog, i.e half of British Somaliland is east of Oog. I don't need to say more than this.
• Faces an FGS with full diplomatic recognition that can argue against secession. Keep in mind that HSM has chosen to not play hardball with Somaliland.

There is also a clock that no one knows is ticking. The gap in fertility between Maroodijeex (Hargaysa & Gabiley) & Sool is 3.4 children per woman. This is greater than the gap between Muslim northern Nigeria and the Christian south.

Somaliland missed the bus on recognition in the 20 years between 1991 and 2011. As soon as the TFG ended and a fully recognized FGS was created, the serious hopes for secession came to an end. The most ripe period was the warlord era, between 1991 and 2000, before Cabdiqassim's government. This is when the south was in complete anarchy.

What did the Isaaq do during this period? They had a civil war.

No UN member will ever unilaterally recognize the secession of Isaaq because Somalia is not at war with Somaliland.

The other reason why Isaaq's hopes for secession are growing cold is the shrinking gap in population growth between the Isaaq and Harti. As of 2014, Harti is as large as Isaaq with both at roughly ~2.2-2.3 million. Harti are also growing about 30% faster than Isaaq due to a difference in fertility of more than 2.2 children per woman. Recognizing the secession of the Isaaq would lead to a war that would dwarf the USC-Darod conflict. No one wants another South Sudan.

A simple map of fertility tell you all you need to know about the future likelihood of Isaaq recognition.

View attachment 201076

SSBN: Sool, Sanaag, Bari & Nugaal
AWGTD: Awdal, Woqoyie Galbeed & Togdheer.

​	SSBN​	AWGTD​	​
1975​	481502​	905576​	53%​
2005​	933623​	1408095​	66%​
2014​	1994394​	2636630​	76%​
2022​	2690255​	3367179​	80%​
​	​	​	​
CAGR (1975-2022)​	3.73%​	2.83%​	​

What else would I wager it on? Perhaps you don't understand the stakes of the game being played. We are playing a smaller version of this game.

2010 in Nigeria Muslims are 50% Christians are 50%. Run this forward with a fertility gap of 2.3 children per woman, and see what happens.


View attachment 191600


Do you want to know something that should worry you? the fertility differential between Harti and Isaaq is identical to the fertility differential between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria. Isaaq have a TFR of 5.5 while Harti have a TFR of 7.8. Notice how this gap between Muslims and Christians started in 1990, fertility differentials within African countries are a recent phenomenon.

What do the experts expect as a result of this gap?
View attachment 191602
View attachment 191604


The changing religious composition of Nigeria: causes and implications of demographic divergence http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/13485/1/The changing religious composition of Nigeria.pdf


This is all as a result of a TFR differential of 2.3.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

It was not first used by non Somalis. It was coined by cuqdad ridden UK landers as a way to insult Somalia. Ajanabis have only started using it recently.

This goes beyond politics. We didn’t see Chinese from Hong Kong turning their ethnicity into a slur during their confrontation with other Chinese from mainland China. They might have been egged on by Westerners but they didn’t cross the line of degrading their ethnicity.

Other Somalis like Hawiye and Darood have political differences too but you don’t see them running around online vilifying anything Somali and cosigning with Zionists and gaalos against us.

There is no moving on from this. I don’t think you secessionists realise how actual Somalis view you lot now and how damaging this whole episode has been.

I hear what you are saying and how it used now but I've never heard it used that way in real life.

Never seen people hate on ethnicity but I stick to political discussions only so I can't say.

Somalilanders honestly don't care for the seccessionist label because it's like you are saying someone is a traitor to something. Somalilanders are not traitors. Many people there spent a decade suffering the worst human rights abuses imaginable and total annihiliation. Just because they will never accept another political project that doesn't come from them and only them doesn't mean they are traitors to anything.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

@Zak12's analysis is correct. Somaliland's secession window of opportunity were the 13 years between 1991 and 2004, the fall of the Kacaan and the establishment of the TFG. This is when there was maximal contrast between Somaliland and the rest of Somalia. After the establishment of the TFG, Somalia's central gov has been on a upward trend in terms of national legitimacy and international credibility. Compare the TFG of 2004 with the FGS of 2014 and that of 2024. You can see the trend upwards, although it is quite slow.

In Jan 2024 Somaliland:

• Lacks consensus among the five clans of British Somaliland regarding secession. Secession has majority support only among the Isaaq.
• Lacks control over most of the territory of British Somaliland. The geographic halfway point of British Somaliland runs a few kilometers west of Oog, i.e half of British Somaliland is east of Oog. I don't need to say more than this.
• Faces an FGS with full diplomatic recognition that can argue against secession. Keep in mind that HSM has chosen to not play hardball with Somaliland.

There is also a clock that no one knows is ticking. The gap in fertility between Maroodijeex (Hargaysa & Gabiley) & Sool is 3.4 children per woman. This is greater than the gap between Muslim northern Nigeria and the Christian south.

The Federal government is not a home grown political project. It's legitmacy and power rests on it's international clout and funding. It's ability to enter into agreements or block agreements as we've seen in the recent past. It's internal legitimacy is another question which is hard to say. I don't know how you even measure that. I don't think it's very high or it's very well trusted. People may align themselves with it for political and financial gain but if the tap goes dry they may pull their support and put it else where or become autonomous.

If you want to make the Somaliland project totally Isaaq that's ignoring history and a lot of it.

You leave out the fact that eastern Isaaq also exist and make up the majority of Sanaag, they also live in western Sool.

If Somaliland gains recognition and uses it effectively, the future is wide open to all possibilities and alliegiences always change. I don't know where these strict qabil lines come from because people have historically worked together and might do again if their interest align.

I don't agree about the FGS being the final nail. The FGS was I think an American state building project in it's early years, it's now shifted (since the Afghan failures) and the west are only funding the security sector to meet the challenges of insurgency. I think they've accepted they can never fully degrade the insurgents so they probably settle on an FGS just strong enough the keep the insurgents always on the backfoot and never able to establish their own state.

 

[Maakhri from dhahar]

It's very humiliating, but he makes a great point about the importance of stability and preserving the state. If the marauding rebels instead of seeking to destroy the state apparatus, structures of the state and the fabric and the unity of the nation and people through by commiting revenge genocide,, but instead focused on preserving the state Somalia would not be without a gov for so long.

Another example is when the ICU who largely consisted of moderates but with an extremist minority focused on building an inclusive government, comprimising with the tfg, promoting stability and building trust with its neighbouring countries, instead of kowtowing to it's extremist group's rhetoric and aggravating and eventually attacking the fg and ethiopia. Because the consequences clearly were that in the case of ICU collapse there would be emergence of extremists who would hurt the country in unimaginable ways.
Somalis clearly arent capable of such long term thinking and dont have an idea of how to formulate ways to avoid crisis. We think with our emotion and passion which is descriptive of how we behave in every day life.

Example is france, when the state collapsed in 1870, a embryonic socialist/marxist movement emerged called the commune that occupied the capital and the city had to be freed with much bloodshed. In 1930s the country's parliament was riven with bitter inter party ideological conflict and the communists were a prominent faction. In 1940 after defeat against Germany they preferred the preservation of the state and collaborated with the nazis instead of taking their chance with anarchy in fear of potential communist takeover.

Excellent analysis
In short, because the Somalis had no experience in modern state management, because we were a tribal society that did not have an organized government .

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

The Federal government is not a home grown political project. It's legitmacy and power rests on it's international clout and funding. It's ability to enter into agreements or block agreements as we've seen in the recent past. It's internal legitimacy is another question which is hard to say. I don't know how you even measure that. I don't think it's very high or it's very well trusted. People may align themselves with it for political and financial gain but if the tap goes dry they may pull their support and put it else where or become autonomous.

If you want to make the Somaliland project totally Isaaq that's ignoring history and a lot of it.

You leave out the fact that eastern Isaaq also exist and make up the majority of Sanaag, they also live in western Sool.

If Somaliland gains recognition and uses it effectively, the future is wide open to all possibilities and alliegiences always change. I don't know where these strict qabil lines come from because people have historically worked together and might do again if their interest align.

I don't agree about the FGS being the final nail. The FGS was I think an American state building project in it's early years, it's now shifted (since the Afghan failures) and the west are only funding the security sector to meet the challenges of insurgency. I think they've accepted they can never fully degrade the insurgents so they probably settle on an FGS just strong enough the keep the insurgents always on the backfoot and never able to establish their own state.

• Sanaag is majority Harti.

West Sanaag + all of Ceerigaabo has smaller amounts buildings than East Sanaag without including Ceerigaabo

West Sanaag including all of Ceerigabo has 29k

View attachment 284033
East Sanaag has 34k buildings

View attachment 284032

• Somaliland's political leadership decided to wage a clan war against Harti. The result of this long-term clan conflict will be the destruction of the Somaliland secession project.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

• Sanaag is majority Harti.

• Somaliland's political leadership decided to wage a clan war against Harti. The result of this long-term clan conflict will be the destruction of the Somaliland secession project.

Neither of these groups have the resources for a major war against eachother and no real interest in it either.

 

[Maakhri from dhahar]

They can take their region and seperate, I don't think anyone would stop them if they breake off with their triangle.

The Awdal region does not want to separate from Somalia.
If we allow the triangle region to separate,
How can we keep the Awdal region with us?

 

[Maakhri from dhahar]

Bro, it's best to let them go wallahi, I don't want them to dig up dead people's bones and whine about genocide for the next 100 years, I'm sure they can unite with their Ethiopian Oromo brothers and sisters with whom they have so much in common with.

In any case, we must not allow secession, whatever the cost, because it poses a threat to Somalia's national security.
As you can see, they are currently allying with Somalia's first enemy,
“ Ethiopia ” .
What will happen when they gain independence?
They will be the tool with which Ethiopia will attack Somalia.

Always remember that countries are not based on emotions.
There must be an iron fist in state administration, whatever the cost.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Neither of these groups have the resources for a major war against eachother and no real interest in it either.

What are you talking about? We just had a war with 5,000 casaulties and 200,000 IDPs. The war we were always getting ready for has already happened. Your people got fucked up, bad.