The fog of war is starting to clear out. It was Russia and Turkey that ended the war. Not Azerbaijan or Armenia.
It turned out that Turkey has allowed Russia to play the main mediator role in the world's eyes. Azerbaijan and Turkey had very clear military advantage on the ground and decided to stop in order to avoid the international pressure and being accused of ethnic cleansing of Armenians and thus jeopardizing their energy projects in the region.
Turkey also secured the right to open a full fledged military base in Greater Karabakh. To date, Armenia lost all 7 buffer zones and about 30% of Karabakh proper. There are rumors that the Turkish base is planned in the de-occupied Agdam region of Greater Karabakh.
Russia and Turkey will jointly operate a centre to oversee peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Turkish drones are likely to be used for surveillance over the Karabakh.
Today Erdogan warned Armenia that if it doesn't stick to the agreement, Turkey and Azerbaijan will resume the war.
And the carrot for Armenia is the re-opening of the Turkish border and ending Armenia's isolation.
Armenia lost the war in humiliation. Azerbaijan didn't get the full control of its territory. Both were treated as little kids who played the war game and were told it is time to go to bed. This is the reality of being aligned with big powers.
Russia had to concede and accept that Turkey is now a player in its back yard, Caucasus. Turkey compromised against its own interests by allowing Russia to set up a base in Karabakh.
BTW, the Armenian leadership is still in hiding from its own people.
Azerbaijan’s closest ally says it will resume military action if Armenia does not withdraw ‘voluntarily’.
www.aljazeera.com
While the conventional wisdom is that Russia allowed Turkey to soften Armenia for the kill, then swooped in and imposed its own terms, talk of Russia’s big win may be somewhat overstated.
www.al-monitor.com