Al-Shabaab capture Geriley, Jubbaland base ATMIS left last month
- Thread starter bidenkulaha
- Start date
Then you hear they equal to puntlandIt’s looking more and more true that the gov negotiated with AS to vacate to another Gobol like jubbaland. MS with all troop concentration from fgs still gets land captured by AS. Fgs incompetence is is sweat as tea from the perspective of a proud mucaraad
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What about marxuum
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He is as useful as kastuumitesWhat about marxuum
Abaq
VIP
We all know MX are useless, whether they are labelled Darawish or not. @ me when an Ogaden controlled base falls. Our boys are currently busy pacifying the 300km stretch between Kismayo and Xagar. We are at Jilib’s doorstep sxbLast week I was arguing with @Abaq about the JL darawish that have the mighty strength to hold itthey’ve disowned them quickly
JL is significantly larger then people think. Abgaal settle a tiny amount of barren land equivalent to a district of JL that also isnt strategic for AS. They also get the bulk of the FGS resources. Middle Shabelles recent gains are not a major accomplishment.
Gariley is not strategically important enough to gain casualties. Col. Cabaas withdrawing from the base and then retaking it is proper counterinsurgent tactics. Same with not setting up camp in Xagar on the other front.
Gariley is not strategically important enough to gain casualties. Col. Cabaas withdrawing from the base and then retaking it is proper counterinsurgent tactics. Same with not setting up camp in Xagar on the other front.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
A single base is causing this much trouble in the middle of nowhere. JL is severely dependent on AMISOM and Middle Shabelle isn’t. Ignoring the excuses, a few thousands Burundi left, with the last remaining few to leave this September. There was barely any AMISOM in Galmudug/Hiiraan to begin with (a few hundred Djibouti which are more useful for inter clan clashes rather than Shabaab).
We shall see what happens in KG and JL in the coming year and a half as the pullout gathers pace.
Afmadow district is larger than Middle Shabelle.
You didnt respond to my post reread it with your comprehension skills turned on.
It isnt “all that trouble” because there were few casualties recorded if any.
If JL is dependent on Amisom surely youd be able to display Amisoms effectiveness. They havent secured half as much for JL as they have for LS/MS/Benadir.
“A few thousand Burundi”, this is acting as though the entire KDF contingent whom abandoned their responsibilities in an entire Gobol (unprecedented in Somalia remind you) isnt only a few thousand itself but also the 2nd smallest contingent. Burundi is the 2nd largest Amisom unit and they were solely based in MS whilst Uganda the largest was solely focused on LS and Benadir iirc. Its almost like the foreign clan occupying another persons land under Amisom under constant threat of clan warfare is HG in Baraawe and not the Ogaden Kismayo.
If Middle Shabelle is sparsely populated Lower Jubba has no population. The last real census, Middle Shabelle was After Banaadir the most densely populated Gobol.
Jubbaland (all three gobol) is pretty much empty empty, according to the 2014 estimation it had a similar population to that of LowerShabelle.
All of JL=about 1.3 million
LowerShabelle= 1.2 million.
The "sparsely" populated Middle Shabelle argument holds no ground, but it pretty much holds true in JL.
The only way it would make sense, why JL forces are unable to clear the region must be due to +70% of the Jubbas having non Daarood population, whom are completely sidelined in Kismayo based Jubbaland state.
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Afmadow is the least densely populated district in Somalia. And the fact it is apparently 80% OG, and still under Shabaab makes no sense considering it shares border with Garissa county and Kenya. By all accounts it should've been 100% under JL decade ago.
JL, has no real Daarood population, I think. :D
bidenkulaha
GalYare
70% non darood
say walhy WaryaThe number rises every year, the Daarood population went to America via Dadaab. Waad duusheen, ee umaddii meesha ku hereen rabshada ka daaya.70% non darood
- 9 districts in Somalia are less densely populated than Afmadow.
- Fighting insurgents in mountains and forests is hard, US unable to defeat Taliban in Afghanistan or Viet Cong in Vietnam. This is why I'm skeptical that Khawarij will be defeated in KGS.
- To get a sense of Darod population in JL, study Garissa and Wajir (Kenya has good data collection). Darod (outside Fafan) don't farm due to cultural reasons/shame, so population densities are lower than other Somalis, but that is made up for by greater grazing area.
No don’t avoid the questionThe number rises every year, the Daarood population went to America via Dadaab. Waad duusheen, ee umaddii meesha ku hereen rabshada ka daaya.
I said say walhy jubaland is 70% non darood.Say it like this= walhy bilahi tulahay
bidenkulaha
GalYare
As Shabaab spreads into Kenya, the importance for the lifting of the arms embargo grows everyday!
This and the ATMIS pullout is the perfect leverage! People laughed when I said the risk of an Afghanistan in Somalia that affects Kenya and Ethiopia means the arms embargo won’t survive long.
SPMLegend
VIP
Hormuud financed this attack to prevent competition. I expect retaliations In Middle Juba against this terrorist company.
bidenkulaha
GalYare
I’m not aware of the politics there but Kenya’s army is terrible. This is not a good sign. Kenya can’t afford to increase defence spending, sporadic airstrikes won’t make any difference. Shabaab is trying to set up base in Kenya as they’re pushed out in Somalia.
The strategy of ‘containment’ is no longer possible.
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