The Arms Embargo will be lifted

Bazed

Tired.
VIP
Al Shabaab will be hunted like a lion chasing a gazelle. Nowhere to hide.
In most cases the SNA already have these bandits on the ropes, their only advantage being mobility and ambushes at dawn. If we come up with a game plan to counter these two issues then we could see them eliminated far sooner than expected.
 
I want a huge navy to be built protecting our coast from Djibouti border to Raas Kambooni

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bidenkulaha

GalYare
Bullshit, there is no trust. I ain't trusting irir till yawmul qiyamah
Point is what you say wonโ€™t matter. The ability of the FGS to bring in heavy weaponry and aircraft will destroy FMS leverage

Also itโ€™s lifted, it canโ€™t be reinstated as long as we ally with one major veto power.

For example if FGS goes full dictatorship and the US wants to reinstate a UN arms embargo we can ally with Russia or China for a veto. Which is a big change in our leverage with the US
 

Hassan Garguute Buldanana

#Puntlandfirst. #PIM
VIP
Point is what you say wonโ€™t matter. The ability of the FGS to bring in heavy weaponry and aircraft will destroy FMS leverage
What happened last time? Akhi the civil war cycle will continue. No one trusts anyone and rightly so. It might get lifted but I still doubt it. We will see, but what I'm certain of is we will have another collapse with caqli like that. The failed colonial project should be buried.
 

bidenkulaha

GalYare
What happened last time? Akhi the civil war cycle will continue. No one trusts anyone and rightly so. It might get lifted but I still doubt it. We will see. But what I'm certain of is we will see another collapse with caqli like that. The failed colonial project should be buried.
No chance. Somali people are tired of war and technology will allow FGS tight control.

Soon our intelligence services will have the ability to arrest people before they commit crimes similar to more developed countries.

Why is it always MJ who predict civil wars, clearly shows they hate the status quo lol
 
:pachah1:That's the opinion of most somalis. It's the reason it's a failed nation. No trust.
I believe the word youโ€™re looking for is recovering state (big difference lad), and no most Somalis much like myself. Are hopeful about our future, itโ€™s only uncivilised tribalist like yourself who wish to see the entire state burn except for your little enclave.
Beside how do you expect the Somali government to defeat Al Shabab, with sticks and stones lol come of it.

trust will develop overtime mate, Iโ€™m sure youโ€™ll jump on the bandwagon when things work out ae.
 

Khaemwaset

Djiboutian ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ | ๐’–๐’†๐’„A๐’—๐’ƒ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด
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Somali Arms Embargo to be Lifted
Stirring Hope and Fears in a Fragile Nation
Kheyr by Kheyr October 25, 2023
Somali Arms Embargo
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Mogadishu, SOMALIA โ€“ The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is reportedly considering a significant policy shift concerning Somalia. Multiple highly reliable sources have informed The Somali Digest that the Somali arms embargo is likely to be lifted in an upcoming review by the UNSC. This change would pertain to the Somali government and key security agencies, such as the Somali National Army (SNA), the National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA), the Somali Police Force, and the Somali Custodial Corps. The Somali government has also unsuccessfully advocated for the lifting of the embargo to include the Federal Member States (FMSs) and weapons intended for the irregular clan militias, known as the Macawiisleey, which have been supporting government operations.

Balancing National Aspirations with Security Concerns
The anticipated lifting of the embargo comes at a juncture when Somalia is attempting to bolster its security forces to maintain law and order, as well as to counter threats from terrorist groups like Al-Shabaab. A stronger and better-equipped security apparatus could indeed serve as a significant deterrent against internal and external threats, providing a platform for social, economic, and political reforms.

However, it is imperative to consider the potential ramifications of such a move. A recent report by the Hiraal Institute suggests that caution is warranted. The report highlights the risk of arms falling into the wrong hands due to Somaliaโ€™s complex societal structure, characterized by deep-seated clan loyalties, as well as the governmentโ€™s limited control over ports of entry. Even as we discuss the possible benefits of lifting the embargo, these issues underline the need for a nuanced approach.

The Clan Dimension
The unique sociopolitical fabric of Somalia adds a layer of complexity to the issue. While the government aims to centralize military power, the reality is that clan loyalties often supersede allegiance to the state. Even the SNA is essentially an amalgamation of various clan militias that often engage in infighting. In this context, the influx of weapons could potentially exacerbate inter-clan tensions, rather than uniting the forces against common enemies like insurgents and terrorists.

Oversight and Governance
Effective governance extends beyond just the political narrative; it delves deep into the logistics of law enforcement and security. Questions remain over whether the Somali government can exercise comprehensive oversight over the arms that would flow into the country post-embargo. The significance of these questions grows when one considers that Somalia does not yet have complete control over all its ports of entry, raising the risk of arms being diverted to non-state actors or even criminal syndicates.

Regional and Global Implications
The potential lifting of the arms embargo also has broader, geopolitical implications. The Horn of Africa is a region that is not only important for Somalia but is also strategically significant for international trade and global security. A change in the arms policy could, therefore, have a domino effect, influencing regional stability and potentially impacting international security.

Moving Forward with Caution
While the embargoโ€™s lifting could signify an important milestone in Somaliaโ€™s arduous journey toward stability and governance, it is clear that this move comes with high stakes. Policymakers must consider a multifaceted approach that carefully balances the potential benefits against the risks. Before making any significant policy changes, there should be stringent mechanisms for oversight, effective governance, and perhaps even international monitoring to ensure that the arms do not contribute to further destabilization.

The UNSCโ€™s upcoming review is not merely a policy checkpoint but a decisive moment that could influence Somaliaโ€™s future trajectory, for better or worse. As such, both national and international stakeholders must tread carefully, conscious of the enduring and far-reaching impact of their decisions.
 

Internet Nomad

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What are your bets on how this will turn out?
 

Khaemwaset

Djiboutian ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฏ | ๐’–๐’†๐’„A๐’—๐’ƒ ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ด
VIP
What are your bets on how this will turn out?
Al shabab have many sympathisers in gov. So there would be some weapons brought to Al shabab.

On the other hand, now somalia will be flooded with weapons and drones many somali clans & the gov will be fighting Al shabab control over land.

More blood will be spilled. The issue is government, it's so primitive and weak. The men in power have no ambition.

The leadership in somalia needs to be killed off and replaced with ambitious young men ASAP if Somalia wants a future. Old farts content with being a shithole state as long as they get their pockets lined. Not to mention these politicians are dual citizens so when shit goes down they can just steal as much money as they can then dip to the west to live in luxury.
 

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