Somaliland wants to secede – here’s why caution is necessary

Status
Not open for further replies.

Hemaal

Jet life till my next life
VIP
Somaliland President Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo recently claimed that more than one million citizens, out of the country’s population of 3.4 million, had signed a petition calling for the international community to recognise Somaliland.

Since 1991, and the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in Somalia, the region has declared itself independent. But should it? The examples of the secession of South Sudan and Eritrea raise serious questions and doubts about the outcomes of breakaway states.

The general approach to calls for secession in Africa, as set out by the African Union (AU) and its predecessor the Organisation of African Unity, is that they should be opposed. The most frequently heard argument against secession is that grantingthe right to one country invites others to take the same step.

This, the argument goes, would put at risk the internationally recognised system of post-colonial states in Africa.

The issue of secession first arose in the 1960s with the wave of decolonisation and questions over the viability of the newly independent states across the continent. Two cases stood out: the Congo, where Katanga’s self-proclaimed breakaway was defeated by United Nations forces; and Nigeria, where the Biafran secession was ended by the Nigerian federal forces.

Africa’s new states
The issue has come up again in recent times. In northeast Africa two states have experienced separation. In 1993 Eritrea was recognised as a separate state from Ethiopia, and the world’s newest state, South Sudan, was recognised in 2011.

The circumstances in each of these cases was different. But the purpose here is not to revisit how and why these took place, but to consider what happened next.

In both cases separation was intended to deal with historical problems and provide an acceptable alternative in the form of a new internationally recognised state. But have they achieved these objectives?

Both the Ethiopian and Sudanese examples suggest that separation isn’t always the straightforward option. The division has led to violent border disputes, economic complications, and poor relations with the wider international community.

There is also a case to be made that granting secession has merely served to fuel the claims of other separatist movements. Somaliland’s calls to be recognised as independent, rather than being included in the efforts to rebuild Somalia, is an example. When South Sudan became independent in 2011 a Somaliland delegation arrived in Juba, the capital, wearing t-shirts saying “Somaliland Next”.

Border disputes, military costs
Any separation involves the recognition of an accepted border between the two states involved. In the case of both Eritrea and South Sudan this has proved contentious.

In 1988 there was an issue over Badme, a small town near the Ethiopian border which Eritrea claimed was theirs. This ignited one of the two largest interstate conflicts in Africa since the second world war. The other interstate conflict was Somalia’s attack in 1977 to back up its claim to Ethiopia’s Ogaden region, an area mainly populated by clans of Somali origin.

South Sudan’s border with Sudan also proved contentious, and there were clashes over the disputed area of Abyei.

Neither the Badme or Abyei issues have been resolved to the satisfaction of the two states involved. Instead they continue to fester.

The continuing border disputes have resulted in both sides continuing to invest heavily in their armies and in equipment. Eritrea and Ethiopia both maintain large and costly forces facing each other across their disputed border.

And while South Sudan and Sudan agreedto an integrated joint force on their common border, it never came into existence. Mutual suspicion and accusations of incursions by both armies persist.

Economic complications
Separation always involves questions about economic relations.

Eritrea’s independence made Ethiopia a landlocked country. Prior to Eritrea’s independence Ethiopia had access to the sea ports of Massawa and Assab. After separation, Ethiopia expected access to continue, but major differences soon emerged to scupper this. This included the relative value of the two countries’ currencies and tariffs charged by Eritrea on the movement of goods.

Worsening economic relations are thought to have played a significant part in the border war that broke out between the two countries.

Similarly, South Sudan and Sudan had to share an outlet to the sea. This became problematic. Sudan began extracting oil in the late 1990s with the bulk of the oil originating in the south. It exported oil via pipelines to the Red Sea that ran through the north.

The peace agreement, which saw the establishment of the South Sudan government in 2005, involved arrangements to share the oil revenues. But South Sudan’s decision to separate completely in 2011 soon gave rise to complaints that Sudan was not honouring the agreement. It even led at one point to the pipeline to the north being closed.

Separation legacy
With differences over borders and economic relations, and even overt war, it is unsurprising that diplomatic relations between the governments have proved difficult. It is therefore also unsurprising that they have affected relations with the wider international community.

Separation often implies that the former state wasn’t viable. International recognition of a new state therefore assumes that separation is better for both old and new. This has proved questionable in both cases.

Eritrea has acquired a reputation as a coercive state and become something of an international pariah. South Sudan has imploded into impoverishment and widespread conflict, leading some to call for it to become a UN mandate, with the presence of a long-term UN force.

These cases have left a legacy which suggests that separation, in Africa at least, is not an easy option. It could lead to outcomes that do little to solve the problems of any of the states involved.

Many in Africa will have these outcomes in mind as they face Somaliland’s continued call for international recognition as an independent state. Meanwhile, rebuilding in the rest of Somalia continues with the express wish that Somaliland is part of the process.

https://theconversation.com/somaliland-wants-to-secede-heres-why-caution-is-necessary-63919
 

RudeBoi

Feel my D in her abs call me Abdi
Somaliland unlike many of these states mentioned has a legal claim! We are merely dissolving the Union of 1960 and going back to our original borders.
 

Hemaal

Jet life till my next life
VIP
Somaliland unlike many of these states mentioned has a legal claim! We are merely dissolving the Union of 1960 and going back to our original borders.

I understand but whether we like or not the world will see our case as succession rather dissolution of union and the South Sudan/Eritrea case will always be hindrance to our bid of recognition.
 
I understand but whether we like or not the world will see our case as succession rather dissolution of union and the South Sudan/Eritrea case will always be hindrance to our bid of recognition.
Bullshit. Eritrea and South Sudan gained independence after 1991. They are not the main hindrance to recognition. The inept govt in Mogadishu is what is holding back the international community's recognition of Somaliland.
 
Somaliland will never secede. The petition that is referenced is 1 million in a population of over 3.5 million. This petition was a couple months ago, yet a petition from 2001 had more supporters. The main supporters are old politicians using the Independence claim as a way to stay in power.


Fucking Texas have more supporters for Independence, and that will never happen too.
 

RudeBoi

Feel my D in her abs call me Abdi
The only way Somaliland will get recognition is by going to war with a.A War of independence where we send our 50k troops and a another 100k volunteers down south to Xamar!

We will force the international community and these slave Somali politicians to come to the negotiating table with us.We have to play the game of thrones of politics.Being a "beacon" of hope& democracy in the Horn of Africa has not taken us closer to recognition.War is imminent walalayaal!

This is my advice to Muuse Bixi and my adeer General Nuux Taani
 

Apollo

VIP
Eritrea got its recognition from Ethiopia because of the Tigray thugs in power of Ethiopia.

South Sudan got its recognition from North Sudan because they wanted to get rid of those useless warring Dinkas.

Neither case is applicable/relatable to Somaliland.
 
The only way Somaliland will get recognition is by going to war with a.A War of independence where we send our 50k troops and a another 100k volunteers down south to Xamar!

We will force the international community and these slave Somali politicians to come to the negotiating table with us.We have to play the game of thrones of politics.Being a "beacon" of hope& democracy in the Horn of Africa has not taken us closer to recognition.War is imminent walalayaal!

This is my advice to Muuse Bixi and my adeer General Nuux Taani
:drakewtf:f*ck kinda shit is this:mindblown:
 

Cognitivedissonance

A sane man to an insane society must appear insane
Stay WOKE
VIP
Somaliland unlike many of these states mentioned has a legal claim! We are merely dissolving the Union of 1960 and going back to our original borders.
Says who? Do you think Isaac alone is the authority to do that? Keep dreaming, don't you think Samaroon & Dhulbhante, Warsengeli, ciise have a voice? Kulaha go back to the original borders wallahi these people are natural high as if they were on crystal meth.
 
The only way Somaliland will get recognition is by going to war with a.A War of independence where we send our 50k troops and a another 100k volunteers down south to Xamar!

We will force the international community and these slave Somali politicians to come to the negotiating table with us.We have to play the game of thrones of politics.Being a "beacon" of hope& democracy in the Horn of Africa has not taken us closer to recognition.War is imminent walalayaal!

This is my advice to Muuse Bixi and my adeer General Nuux Taani
Welcome to SomaliSpot inadeer. kkkkkkk
 
If it was a minority of people in SL who wanted independence, then the useless folk in Mogadishu would welcome a referendum with international observers. I've said this before. That would be the quickest most concrete way to delegitimize the SL gov. Even I would concede. You've never heard them call for that and they never will for obvious reasons. It would be the obvious thing to do, if they actually thought the SL gov independence claim was not a reality on the ground.
 

RudeBoi

Feel my D in her abs call me Abdi
Says who? Do you think Isaac alone is the authority to do that? Keep dreaming, don't you think Samaroon & Dhulbhante, Warsengeli, ciise have a voice? Kulaha go back to the original borders wallahi these people are natural high as if they were on crystal meth.
Samarone are fierce Somaliland supporters,Cisse left to Djoubiti,Dhulos have finally adopted Somaliland and Warsengali hatred of MJ will see the errors of their way and fully embrace the Somaliland political process!


Now who will stand in the way of a force of a 150k? The village Garowe will be taken and the small city of Bosaaso will be taken.Once SL forces reaches gaalkacayo we will need to make alliances with local tribes and make a truce with Shabaab.

If any Amisom,hostile tribes and Abgaal militia men try to attack our forces they will receive a bullet in their brain!

Hargeisa a city of 1.5 million alone can muster 300k men as volunteers.Awdal,Gabiley,Burco and Eastern regions can muster another 200k.We will have an endless supply of reinforcements!

Who can stand in our way?
 
If it was a minority of people in SL who wanted independence, then the useless folk in Mogadishu would welcome a referendum with international observers. I've said this before. That would be the quickest most concrete way to delegitimize the SL gov. Even I would concede. You've never heard them call for that and they never will for obvious reasons. It would be the obvious thing to do, if they actually thought the SL gov independence claim was not a reality on the ground.
The Somali Govt calling for a referendum would only legitimize the already non legitimate claim for Independence. And anyways referendums and direct democracy is stupid. Brexit being a clear example.

The US Government would never give the Texans a referendum, and Spain won't give Catalans their own referendum, when they have a much more legitimate claim
 
Samarone are fierce Somaliland supporters,Cisse left to Djoubiti,Dhulos have finally adopted Somaliland and Warsengali hatred of MJ will see the errors of their way and fully embrace the Somaliland political process!


Now who will stand in the way of a force of a 150k? The village Garowe will be taken and the small city of Bosaaso will be taken.Once SL forces reaches gaalkacayo we will need to make alliances with local tribes and make a truce with Shabaab.

If any Amisom,hostile tribes and Abgaal militia men try to attack our forces they will receive a bullet in their brain!

Hargeisa a city of 1.5 million alone can muster 300k men as volunteers.Awdal,Gabiley,Burco and Eastern regions can muster another 200k.We will have an endless supply of reinforcements!

Who can stand in our way?
You're literally fucking retarded. Most likely a troll account by @waraabe or some other SL nutjob
 
The Somali Govt calling for a referendum would only legitimize the already non legitimate claim for Independence. And anyways referendums and direct democracy is stupid. Brexit being a clear example.

The US Government would never give the Texans a referendum, and Spain won't give Catalans their own referendum, when they have a much more legitimate claim
image-jpg.6546


:siilaanyolaugh:
 

Cognitivedissonance

A sane man to an insane society must appear insane
Stay WOKE
VIP
Samarone are fierce Somaliland supporters,Cisse left to Djoubiti,Dhulos have finally adopted Somaliland and Warsengali hatred of MJ will see the errors of their way and fully embrace the Somaliland political process!


Now who will stand in the way of a force of a 150k? The village Garowe will be taken and the small city of Bosaaso will be taken.Once SL forces reaches gaalkacayo we will need to make alliances with local tribes and make a truce with Shabaab.

If any Amisom,hostile tribes and Abgaal militia men try to attack our forces they will receive a bullet in their brain!

Hargeisa a city of 1.5 million alone can muster 300k men as volunteers.Awdal,Gabiley,Burco and Eastern regions can muster another 200k.We will have an endless supply of reinforcements!

Who can stand in our way?

25 years from now you'll be still singing citiraaf. If Isaac are so powerful then why don't they capture buhoodle? All that big talk won't win hearts & minds, al shabaab won't do it, funding them & creating chaos in xamar won't change things, Samaroon, dhulos, Warsengeli & ciise don't want none of this facade called isaacland.
 

Cognitivedissonance

A sane man to an insane society must appear insane
Stay WOKE
VIP
These qaldans are like Jewish Zionist, reasoning with them is like drawing water from a mirage.
 

RudeBoi

Feel my D in her abs call me Abdi
You're literally fucking retarded. Most likely a troll account by @waraabe or some other SL nutjob
You must be Hawiye.Somaliland has tried everything to become independent From democratic elections to actually presenting to the IC our valid legal case.We are left with no other option then war.We don't like war and losing good sons of the republic but war is the only option!
The South has to burn!
 

Bernie Madoff

Afhayeenka SL
VIP
You must be Hawiye.Somaliland has tried everything to become independent From democratic elections to actually presenting to the IC our valid legal case.We are left with no other option then war.We don't like war and losing good sons of the republic but war is the only option!
The South has to burn!
Who do you hate more doros or hutus?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Trending

Top