World Bank Somalia Urbanization report

[repo]

You must be another daft one, when I say the UNFPA 2014 data is unreliable it's obviously the entire report. But sensitivity got to you so you argued against the 2014 estimate along with me by bringing the Same example as I did, for another village. Then you go on to support your desert dwelling brother when he claims


It's easy to win when you argue and provide evidence against your own report

Stop it. They included those two towns as examples of overestimation. That doesn't mean the entire report is unreliable. At this point I'd rather listen to Somaliland's own minister Sacad Cali Shire, he went from naysayer to yeasayer. You have severe bias in you, if you were genuine you would have included the Waqooyi Galbeed town as well.

 

[Wir]

Stop it. They included those two towns as examples of overestimation. That doesn't mean the entire report is unreliable. At this point I'd rather listen to Somaliland's own minister Sacad Cali Shire, he went from naysayer to yeasayer.

No, Listen to the world bank who publishes these reports. This wasn't a one off scenario and they clearly state that in their report

I'll even write it out for you just like I did for your brother. I'll Bolden the key take away. Let it sink in, digest it, and stop purporting a report that claims it's own statistics have large error margins

"All existing estimates for current population are the result of projections from these estimates and result in LARGE ERROR MARGINS"

 

[Woke1.4rm.Shibis]

You man are talking about MJ all of harti is smaller than just abgaal. If more land = more people than today Russia would have more people than China which isn’t the case

If we' re being honest just abgaal alone is almost equal to the entire darood .
According to 1931 population .

bhlub (@thebhlub) Tweeted: In 1931, Abgal was by far the largest subclan in #Somalia, with a recorded total of 112,351 people, or 11% of the total population of 1931 Somalia! To put this in perspective the entire Darod clan in Somalia numbered only 233,268. Yet Darod gets 5x representation of Abgal.
That's why we must end this 4.5 power sharing nonsense . Darood population in Somalia is not much difference from just a subclan of mudulood ka waran

 

[TimaJilic]

We'll see if you're right with the local elections they're next week if HY lose seats in Burco then your theory would be correct.

The number of HY and HJ candidates in Burco local elections and Parliament in Togdheer

Burco local Elections

Togdheer Parliament

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

If we' re being honest just abgaal alone is almost equal to the entire darood .
According to 1931 population .

bhlub (@thebhlub) Tweeted: In 1931, Abgal was by far the largest subclan in #Somalia, with a recorded total of 112,351 people, or 11% of the total population of 1931 Somalia! To put this in perspective the entire Darod clan in Somalia numbered only 233,268. Yet Darod gets 5x representation of Abgal.
That's why we must end this 4.5 power sharing nonsense . Darood population in Somalia is not much difference from just a subclan of mudulood ka waran

The real population of MJ in 1931 is Migiurtinia plus Eil, Rocca Littorio and Chisimaio. The population of MJ is 105,000 according to the 1931 census which is 10.3% of Somalia's 1931 population. Eil district was later merged into Migiurtinia, but in 1931 it was part of Mudugh region. Keep in mind that many MJ in Ethiopia were not counted, while all Abgaal live in Somalia.

Eil (Nugaal and parts of Bandar Bayla)

Rocca Littorio (MJ part of Mudug)

Kismayo

 

[convincation]

The real population of MJ in 1931 is Migiurtinia plus Eil, Rocca Littorio and Chisimaio. The population of MJ is 105,000 according to the 1931 census which is 10.3% of Somalia's 1931 population. Eil district was later merged into Migiurtinia, but in 1931 it was part of Mudugh region. Keep in mind that many MJ in Ethiopia were not counted, while all Abgaal live in Somalia.

Eil (Nugaal and parts of Bandar Bayla)

Rocca Littorio (MJ part of Mudug)

Kismayo

Using the last real census conducted by the Somali republic, let’s measure it out.

Abgaal (a subclan of mudulood) vs harti (MJ alone isn’t a good enough comparison)

Let’s say abgaal are roughly populate 60% of banadir (the most populated Degmos in Mogadishu are all majority abgaal like karaan, madino, yaaqshid etc), 80% of middle shabelle (the rest going to other hawiyes and shidle), 20% of lower shabelle (considering we heavily live from afgooye to barawe and everything between and currently hold VP in barawe and afgooye), 20% of galgaduud (ceeldhere exclusively and tuulos in ceelbur), 5% of mudug (xarardhere) and 5% of hiran (jalalaqsi district). This is a grand total of 15.48% of the population for abgaal alone.

Now harti:
I’ll be nice and say 40% of mudug (minus galmudug and leelkase/carab salax), all of nugaal even though nugaal includes sool (which has caynabo) and all of Bari (probably not all of bari but still, I’ll be nice) and 50% of sanag. Even with all the odds on your side this is still just 11.19%
“bUt wE lIvE iN kIsMaYo aNd mOgAdIsHu” we both know your population in neither of those cities are going to fill the clear population gap here. Harti is smaller than abgaal and darood is like the same size as hiraab

 

[Poets]

Using the last real census conducted by the Somali republic, let’s measure it out.

Abgaal (a subclan of mudulood) vs harti (MJ alone isn’t a good enough comparison)
View attachment 186707

Let’s say abgaal are roughly populate 60% of banadir (the most populated Degmos in Mogadishu are all majority abgaal like karaan, madino, yaaqshid etc), 80% of middle shabelle (the rest going to other hawiyes and shidle), 20% of lower shabelle (considering we heavily live from afgooye to barawe and everything between and currently hold VP in barawe and afgooye), 20% of galgaduud (ceeldhere exclusively and tuulos in ceelbur), 5% of mudug (xarardhere) and 5% of hiran (jalalaqsi district). This is a grand total of 15.48% of the population for abgaal alone.

Now harti:
I’ll be nice and say 40% of mudug (minus galmudug and leelkase/carab salax), all of nugaal even though nugaal includes sool (which has caynabo) and all of Bari (probably not all of bari but still, I’ll be nice) and 50% of sanag. Even with all the odds on your side this is still just 11.19%
“bUt wE lIvE iN kIsMaYo aNd mOgAdIsHu” we both know your population in neither of those cities are going to fill the clear population gap here. Harti is smaller than abgaal and darood is like the same size as hiraab

Answer me one simple question: why do you use a census that do not disaggregate according to clan (and thus forces you to make estimations) and leave the one which does disaggregate according to clan?

 

[convincation]

Answer me one simple question: why do you use a census that do not disaggregate according to clan (and thus forces you to make estimations) and leave the one which does disaggregate according to clan?

Because one can be used to push a certain agenda wheras the other cannot.

 

[codewebsduh]

People are ignoring the most interesting part of the report. The urbanisation of Somalia will allow us to advance much more rapidly then our neighbourhoods. The higher the Urban population the more open minded and educated the country becomes.

 

[Removed]

I sometimes begin to believe that the 68 IQ thing is real. How can you graduate from high school in th the West and fail to understand something so simple?

Hada he thinks he is making a good argument.

Many people here think if they just post screenshots they proved something because most people wont bother to read it but rather just look at it as evidence backing your claim.

@Wir is a regular abuser of that and as I said before defines the term quantity over quality.

You're not bright at all mate.

Tell me what this example states
View attachment 186643

A complete overestimation in this town. They clearly stated in this document that the population figures are unreliable but you lot clinch to it for obvious reasons

As I mentioned before, they even point to 1975 as being the last published reliable census for Somali Republics population. That 1975 census just like the one in the 1930s, 50s, and 60s, was a census and not an estimation, they all showed the constant truth, that Puntland had the lowest population density in the former Somali Republic, sitting at ~5% of the total population. There's no way to get around this one

The point i made that you quoted stands that paragraph did not mean what you intended and your abandonment of defending that implies you acknowledge that.

Those images you ran to next is literally the same report mentioning errors that occured that they self-corrected. If you believe the methodology or the administration of this survey is in anyway inferior to the elementary school graduates of italy in 1931 or the kacaan era census then by all means display them applying the same scrutiny on their initial results as the UNFPA.

 

[Poets]

Because one can be used to push a certain agenda wheras the other cannot.

It actually is the opposite. If the census disaggregating according to clan is used, independent (foreign) estimation of clans with no (obvious) bias by the estimator can be done. Using censuses that only provide info on the populations of the different states, each member on this board can claim that their clan settles this area or that area in such and such percentage. It is not fruitful.

 

[convincation]

It actually is the opposite. If the census disaggregating according to clan is used, independent (foreign) estimation of clans with no (obvious) bias by the estimator can be done. Using censuses that only provide info on the populations of the different states, each member on this board can claim that their clan settles this area or that area in such and such percentage. It is not fruitful.

It’s not about saying “my clan settled here and there” it’s about using information we already have to back a certain claim and use this census as a way to put it into perspective.

e.g. using other population figures (like The population of individual districts in xamar) or which clan holds gudomiye or VP positions in which areas to build up an idea of who lives there and then using it to support your estimation which is what I did. However with the clan census anyone can just claim they’re clan is a certain percentage without any evidence which is why we have the 4.5 problem.

 

[Awbarkhadle]

Puntland is sucked into the economic gravity of Somaliland. Gebilay has more population than burco let alone Berbera. The capital should get moved to hargeisa and we will swap HG and AG for PM. With support of north west and south central the rest of the country will be pacified easily. Raxanweyn will get there 6 gobols.