Will the AU mission end soon, and what does this mean for Somalia

[New World]

There only needs to be confirmation of vast oil reserves to guarantee FGS victory. Oil will be needed for atleast the next 50 years, we will eat good from it. AS leadership knows nobody will buy oik from us, if they are in charge.

If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, we might see even see AS agree to a peace deal in 2027.

Why are you sure that AS will agree with the FGS?

 

[Burqad]

There only needs to be confirmation of vast oil reserves to guarantee FGS victory. Oil will be needed for atleast the next 50 years, we will eat good from it. AS leadership knows nobody will buy oik from us, if they are in charge.

If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, we might see even see AS agree to a peace deal in 2027.

wow, delulu

 

[Afar indhood]

There only needs to be confirmation of vast oil reserves to guarantee FGS victory. Oil will be needed for atleast the next 50 years, we will eat good from it. AS leadership knows nobody will buy oik from us, if they are in charge.

If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, we might see even see AS agree to a peace deal in 2027.

What are you smoking, man?
Where we are and where you are are kaaf iyo kala dheeri.

 

[Midas]

Honestly the oil is the only way I can see us being able to centralize successfully. When i look at syria and I see how the entire decade long war ended after they were able to conquer a single one of fhe western corridor of cities ( damascus,homs,hama,aleppo) i realized how large the probelm somalis face is. Forget Hargeisa garowe alone is like 700+ miles away from Mogadishu in comparison the distance between damascus to Aleppo which is at the opposite side is only 200 miles ( so basically from Mogadishu to luuq)
Hargiesa is even more ridiculous in that its 1000+ miles away. Which is essentially the distance between Minnesota and New York. How do you govern with poor infrastructure and a indepenet power center that far away ?

Were gonna need the carrot ( a share of the oil profits) and the stick (external pressure from allied countires thatll cut off aid and etc if they dont agree to this deal) .

 

[Abdisamad]

Honestly the oil is the only way I can see us being able to centralize successfully. When i look at syria and I see how the entire decade long war ended after they were able to conquer a single one of fhe western corridor of cities ( damascus,homs,hama,aleppo) i realized how large the probelm somalis face is. Forget Hargeisa garowe alone is like 700+ miles away from Mogadishu in comparison the distance between damascus to Aleppo which is at the opposite side is only 200 miles ( so basically from Mogadishu to luuq)
Hargiesa is even more ridiculous in that its 1000+ miles away. Which is essentially the distance between Minnesota and New York. How do you govern with poor infrastructure and a indepenet power center that far away ?

Were gonna need the carrot ( a share of the oil profits) and the stick (external pressure from allied countires thatll cut off aid and etc if they dont agree to this deal) .

Or simply you couldn't respect the upon agreed constitution and federal system.. It's a sign of poor intelligence to over complicate things. .. Maybe the 68 thing was true after all

 

[Midas]

Or simply you couldn't respect the upon agreed constitution and federal system.. It's a sign of poor intelligence to over complicate things. .. Maybe the 68 thing was true after all

Federalism is a joke. It was alwaya meant to be temporary . The reality is that anytime when somebody wants to move beyond federalism. The "respect the system and constitution " stuff is brought up to stop them.

 

[Aiman12]

Federalism is a joke. It was alwaya meant to be temporary . The reality is that anytime when somebody wants to move beyond federalism. The "respect the system and constitution " stuff is brought up to stop them.

what we have now cant even be called federalism

 

[El Nino]

wow, delulu

What are you smoking, man?
Where we are and where you are are kaaf iyo kala dheeri.

Why are you sure that AS will agree with the FGS?

I don’t understand why some of you guys are shocked.

I will explain.

Money and with it, stability has been the main goal of AS and it has been for the past 10 years. They have consolidated areas under them and what has been the biggest reason why clans have fought against them? Their love of extortion. This is how they pay their troops.


The organisation is strong enough to take over all of Somalia, if there wouldn’t be direct outside interference. Only reason stopping them is the possible western (American) interventation, that would kill of the organisation. AS is strong enough to wipe out now all of AMISOM easily. 20 000 troops in an unfamiliar territory with no air force, long term supplies and hardware advantage are sitting ducks. Their role is to slow down AS offense until cavalry arrives (western drones).


AS is the most capable and ruthless organisation in all of Somalia and even then, its a shitty ragtag militia that is made ultimately of calool ushaqeysteyaal. Their leadership will be at the negotiation table faster then a haramcad when FGS offers 100 million for ceasefire. If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, it will be worth close to 1 trillion US $. Nevermind other unexplored oil blocks.

FGS could then easily build an air force and meanwhile, buy shitload of drones. Jilib has been already bombed, imagine if FGS had the independent capability of bombing it everyday.



AS are cut from the cloth that the current somali political ”elite” (pile of rubbish). I do not believe them to be that much fanatical anymore, the number of true believers is not the majority. Matter of fact, somalis are calool ushaqeysteyaal.
Dad baahan gob ma ahan. Do you guys not think AS is not the same as the rest of Somalia?

 

[Hilmaam]

I don’t understand why some of you guys are shocked.

I will explain.

Money and with it, stability has been the main goal of AS and it has been for the past 10 years. They have consolidated areas under them and what has been the biggest reason why clans have fought against them? Their love of extortion. This is how they pay their troops.


The organisation is strong enough to take over all of Somalia, if there wouldn’t be direct outside interference. Only reason stopping them is the possible western (American) interventation, that would kill of the organisation. AS is strong enough to wipe out now all of AMISOM easily. 20 000 troops in an unfamiliar territory with no air force, long term supplies and hardware advantage are sitting ducks. Their role is to slow down AS offense until cavalry arrives (western drones).


AS is the most capable and ruthless organisation in all of Somalia and even then, its a shitty ragtag militia that is made ultimately of calool ushaqeysteyaal. Their leadership will be at the negotiation table faster then a haramcad when FGS offers 100 million for ceasefire. If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, it will be worth close to 1 trillion US $. Nevermind other unexplored oil blocks.

FGS could then easily build an air force and meanwhile, buy shitload of drones. Jilib has been already bombed, imagine if FGS had the independent capability of bombing it everyday.



AS are cut from the cloth that the current somali political ”elite” (pile of rubbish). I do not believe them to be that much fanatical anymore, the number of true believers is not the majority. Matter of fact, somalis are calool ushaqeysteyaal.
Dad baahan gob ma ahan. Do you guys not think AS is not the same as the rest of Somalia?

these guys dying by thousands. People who blow themselves up to knock down security gates to hotels and military bases they are steadfast in their beliefs. They have defectors here and there but overall these people can’t be negotiated with. Same with isis in mountains they fighting to last man with thousands of bombs worth hundreds of million being dropped on them yet they still fighting and wont surrended, even if they know they outmatched in every way and isolated.

oil will also not play major factor in this war. oil uranium gold all these resources are just distractions and talking points for politicians. im confident no major investments will happen until governance and law and order are established. why sink billions into oil rig that can get blown up by drones or speed boats or even worse current govt falls and new one doesn't recognize any deal at least first options u can try and rebuild damage.

US Navy F/A-18s launched history's 'largest airstrike' from an aircraft carrier — 125,000 pounds of munitions, admiral says

Super Hornet fighter jets from the USS Harry S. Truman bombed ISIS targets in Somalia in February, a defense official told Business Insider.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Afar indhood]

Honestly the oil is the only way I can see us being able to centralize successfully. When i look at syria and I see how the entire decade long war ended after they were able to conquer a single one of fhe western corridor of cities ( damascus,homs,hama,aleppo) i realized how large the probelm somalis face is. Forget Hargeisa garowe alone is like 700+ miles away from Mogadishu in comparison the distance between damascus to Aleppo which is at the opposite side is only 200 miles ( so basically from Mogadishu to luuq)
Hargiesa is even more ridiculous in that its 1000+ miles away. Which is essentially the distance between Minnesota and New York. How do you govern with poor infrastructure and a indepenet power center that far away ?

Were gonna need the carrot ( a share of the oil profits) and the stick (external pressure from allied countires thatll cut off aid and etc if they dont agree to this deal) .

Yes, distance is the reason why we're in the shitter.

 

[Midas]

Yes, distance is the reason why we're in the shitter.

That and the endless proliferation of weapons into somalia since the cold war.
One of the main ways britian took control was by waiting at the wells and forcing all the nomads to disarm. We are eventually gonna have to find a way to reduce the weapons in the country.

 

[Itsnotthateasy]

I don’t understand why some of you guys are shocked.

I will explain.

Money and with it, stability has been the main goal of AS and it has been for the past 10 years. They have consolidated areas under them and what has been the biggest reason why clans have fought against them? Their love of extortion. This is how they pay their troops.


The organisation is strong enough to take over all of Somalia, if there wouldn’t be direct outside interference. Only reason stopping them is the possible western (American) interventation, that would kill of the organisation. AS is strong enough to wipe out now all of AMISOM easily. 20 000 troops in an unfamiliar territory with no air force, long term supplies and hardware advantage are sitting ducks. Their role is to slow down AS offense until cavalry arrives (western drones).


AS is the most capable and ruthless organisation in all of Somalia and even then, its a shitty ragtag militia that is made ultimately of calool ushaqeysteyaal. Their leadership will be at the negotiation table faster then a haramcad when FGS offers 100 million for ceasefire. If the rumoured 20 billion barrels are true, it will be worth close to 1 trillion US $. Nevermind other unexplored oil blocks.

FGS could then easily build an air force and meanwhile, buy shitload of drones. Jilib has been already bombed, imagine if FGS had the independent capability of bombing it everyday.



AS are cut from the cloth that the current somali political ”elite” (pile of rubbish). I do not believe them to be that much fanatical anymore, the number of true believers is not the majority. Matter of fact, somalis are calool ushaqeysteyaal.
Dad baahan gob ma ahan. Do you guys not think AS is not the same as the rest of Somalia?

Cope.

If the table were turned how long would the FGS survive? FGS couldn't even survive withdrawal of support let alone a significant internation coalition against it. No negotiations are going to happen between FGS and extremists.

More like Afghanistan repeat if the rumours are true already negotiations are happening and not including FGS at all.

 

[Abdisamad]

Federalism is a joke. It was alwaya meant to be temporary .

Where are you getting this from?

The reality is that anytime when somebody wants to move beyond federalism. The "respect the system and constitution " stuff is brought up to stop them.

The only failed thing is the amisom bunker in muqdisho and the corrupt tuugs calling themselves president and prime minister in muqdisho...