Will the AU mission end soon, and what does this mean for Somalia

FBIsomalia

True Puntlander
VIP

Espaa_

Ku sali nabiga {scw}
HAG should fight Alkabaab alone.:tocry:
imma whip their asses dw im the main character

santa claus whip GIF
 
Wrre probably gonna see a lot more instability in the near term because of this. As somali elites jostle to be at the head of the new poltical order which is forming as a part of the fallout of the end of the au mission.
 
It seems donors aren't willing to give aussom the funding it needs. And even if a last minute deal is made, it will only last for a year before there is another funding crisis. So the AU mission looks like it will soon come to a close.


What does this mean for Somalia's future?
Honestly its over for somalia if they dont reform the army and government structure by the time AU leaves
 
Wrre probably gonna see a lot more instability in the near term because of this. As somali elites jostle to be at the head of the new poltical order which is forming as a part of the fallout of the end of the au mission.
12k have already left in the last two years and I don’t see m widespread chaos or genocide happening. Even with 70% of international aid cut this year, we’re not seeing mass starvation.

Don’t get me, yes, I agree that short-term instability will rise, but it will be a much needed reset. For years, $1.5B in aid yearly and 30k western paid foreign troops made Somali(especially Xamar’s) elites very lazy. Now, with no money and no protection it’s sink or swim. Its time to either get to work
or risk being overrun by AS, Abiy, or end up a client state of the UAE.
 
What many seem to be forgetting is that Somalia will still retain external support from the United States, Turkey and Qatar. Its only the useless AU troops that will have their funding cut.

In the short term there will be some instability as the SNA will be the focus of AS instead of AU but in the long term it will allow a shift in strategy against AS that will prove more effective than the failed strategy of keeping foreign troops in.
 

Hilmaam

Aabe kan yar iga celiyoo kan weyn igu sii daa.
VIP
they've been saying they will leave for years. there will be some last minute funds found like always. Plus there are troops outside AUSSOM. there is like 7-10k ethiopians inside country outside mission, who wont leave no matter what. Same thing with Kenya. Neither will leave and allow their borders to come at risk. long as all this infighting continues dont expect any big changes. almost whole south border ethiopia got buffer

1753240315201.png
 
12k have already left in the last two years and I don’t see m widespread chaos or genocide happening. Even with 70% of international aid cut this year, we’re not seeing mass starvation.

Don’t get me, yes, I agree that short-term instability will rise, but it will be a much needed reset. For years, $1.5B in aid yearly and 30k western paid foreign troops made Somali(especially Xamar’s) elites very lazy. Now, with no money and no protection it’s sink or swim. Its time to either get to work
or risk being overrun by AS, Abiy, or end up a client state of the UAE.
Dont get me wrong I think this is a osotive development. The status quo has made these people resistant to actually building an army effectively. But now there force to adapt or die
 
they've been saying they will leave for years. there will be some last minute funds found like always. Plus there are troops outside AUSSOM. there is like 7-10k ethiopians inside country outside mission, who wont leave no matter what. Same thing with Kenya. Neither will leave and allow their borders to come at risk. long as all this infighting continues dont expect any big changes. almost whole south border ethiopia got buffer

View attachment 368049
Why do you keep acting like nothing has actually changed? The United States completely pulled funding on hundreds of major projects it was involved in.

The presence of kenya and Ethiopian troops will also ultimately underg a reevaluation. Its one thing to have them there when there's an au mission even if they're not involved. But once the au mission is gone they're gonna generate a lot more scrutiny.
 

El Nino

Cabsi cabsi
VIP
The article was in May, now more then 2 months ago.

It seems to me status quo will just remain for couple of years. AS is content on taking areas previously under its control but not directly threatening Xamar. It seems like they are going to wait until western powers (USA) give up on state building of Somalia.

We have already read that many in Trumps administration want to ”contain Somalia and let it burn”. If we have read it, so have AS too.

The ball is in FGS court. I deleted tiktok but before that I listened to a clip by AAW who talked about the usual political topics but he did say the world is changing. Elites in FGS know westerners will pull the plug at one point and leave them in the dust.

Most of them will relocate to the west but some of them will stay and its upto these men to be proactive. I don’t have alot of faith in these to be honest.

I still believe FGS is banking on shidaal. If there is substantial amount of oil, FGS will simply pay off opposing parties, especially AS. Money talks, even regarding Shabaab.
 

Hilmaam

Aabe kan yar iga celiyoo kan weyn igu sii daa.
VIP
The article was in May, now more then 2 months ago.

It seems to me status quo will just remain for couple of years. AS is content on taking areas previously under its control but not directly threatening Xamar. It seems like they are going to wait until western powers (USA) give up on state building of Somalia.

We have already read that many in Trumps administration want to ”contain Somalia and let it burn”. If we have read it, so have AS too.

The ball is in FGS court. I deleted tiktok but before that I listened to a clip by AAW who talked about the usual political topics but he did say the world is changing. Elites in FGS know westerners will pull the plug at one point and leave them in the dust.

Most of them will relocate to the west but some of them will stay and its upto these men to be proactive. I don’t have alot of faith in these to be honest.

I still believe FGS is banking on shidaal. If there is substantial amount of oil, FGS will simply pay off opposing parties, especially AS. Money talks, even regarding Shabaab.
oil is probably 10 yrs out at a minimum and is big unknown today, probably see another 3 presidents before any real production. i do agree a fgs with deep pockets would solve alot of problems, we only 19 million living on huge land. our land would take up almost whole east coast of america and is bigger than every european country other than russia. biggest empires in world came from europe and today somalia bigger than them. but issue its arid land and we fighting over grazing and water. the couple hundred million govt collects from taxes wont make dent on land of this size and peoples so spread out

new york state alone 19.5 million

1753250672272.png
 

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