Why Somaliland region will lose even if a referendum was ever granted

[Bohol]

4 out of 5 regions would return no, with Waqooyi Galbeed the last remaining region itself heavily contested.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Yes they need to 'prove' there is 'majority' will in each region not just hold a referedum in sacad muse country and say this is representative of all Somaliland. I don' think it's really policy but a way to keep onto power and 'accumulate' weath and build up hargeisa/berbera while silencing opposition as 'somalia'.

Each region needs to at least meet 60% majority then this is evidence to the world that there is a real SL on the ground. But the evidence says something else, they 'bribe' and 'invade' so many regions outside 'Jeegaan'. They did it in 96 to HY who stood up. They do it constantly to Dhulbahante/Warsangeli and they do it to awdal. If there was majority will, u wouldn't need to use violence or bribers of elders. It wont even reach a referendum before pre-polling sample suggests the deviation of popular support for a Somalia is 90% pro somalia, deviations are only within 5-10% for factors that cannot be accounted for on the 'day'. But the variables are accurate and representative of the community like male/female/eldery/youth/urban/rural u just 'divide' the 100 portion in a governed way to represent how their population is set up. Like 50/50 for women. Maybe 70% to youth below 30, while the remainder goes to above 30 to elderly. U can quickly work out that sample rate without any need to roll out expensive referendum lol

 

[Younes Osman]

Togdheer is also HJ,HY with a few HA along with a very small size of Dhulbahante's mostly residing in Buhole. therefore, I think it would be a defo referendum it would swing to independence.
sannag would swing to independence based on the demographics of the province which has both HJ and HY which has a shared combined majority over the Harti.
Sool with the inclusion of canyaba and other HY and HJ settlements would vote for independence.
Maroodi jeex : overwhelming vote for independence
Sahil: overwhelming vote for independence
Salel: would be a swing vote
Awdal: would also be a vote towards no for independence with some in favour .
Hawd: would overwhelming vote independents

There has been 2 referendums conducted in Somaliland which monitored by international observers and both are in favour for independence. Therefore, if the 3rd referendum arises it would still be a majority voting for independence.

 

[Bohol]

@Younes Osman what are you blabbing about? HY & HJ will not vote the same way. Sanaag is HY & Warsangeli majority, Sool Dhulbahante & SY majority. Togdheer is HY & Dhulbahante majority. Buhoodle district is densely populated, its population is not anywhere near "small".

 

[Younes Osman]

@Younes Osman what are you blabbing about? HY & HJ will not vote
the same way. Sanaag is HY & Warsangeli majority, Sool Dhulbahante & SY majority. Togdheer
is HY & Dhulbahante majority. Buhoodle district is densely populated, its population is not anywhere near "small".

Toghdeer has a large HJ population and a small Dhulbahante population who are mostly located in the Buhoodle district.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Bohol I think 'tuur' if he won the 'war'. Would've settled SL and said 'recognition' ambition is still on the table, but we need to work within member state of Somalia and will become 'regional govt' but add a clause for referendum for secession in our constitution when we have talks with Somalia. This is 'nidaam' hada, MJ would shit themselves as you are now not in 'vacum' outside the world order like hamas/plo/shabab, your now a real threat as they say 'siyasad bartay' kkkkk. You could of calmed down all the secessionist saying your 'cause' is still in our constitution but we just gotta go thru the procedures and steps like any nation not just carve a border for ourselves cuz that means i can carve a border for myself also as bah dubays country. No UN can allow anyone working outside the structure, cause it leads to 'vacuum' or 'disorder' because its well known structures create 'something' because it's ordered' not 'disordered' like SL is. That's why SL has been in a vacuum of existence(peace) or disorder thru out it's 30 years. It's mathamatically provable.

If Tuur won, he would've ensured SL is shared properly and hargeisa/berbera centric and ended sacad muse card of 'somalia ayuu aminsan yahay' cause u wud say we going thru the proper mechanism for secession while knowing full well they can't secure 60% vote on SL regions in each region, so u kill their policies at the same time. Cigaal was smart but he could've been beaten.

 

[Bohol]

Toghdeer has a large HJ population and a small Dhulbahante population who are mostly located in the Buhoodle district.

Togdheer is majority HY though that cancels out any HJ votes. As for Buhoodle district it is around 13% of Togdheer in population that is not small as it can swing things in the event of any vote.

 

[PhySom]

@Younes Osman what are you blabbing about? HY & HJ will not vote the same way. Sanaag is HY & Warsangeli majority, Sool Dhulbahante & SY majority. Togdheer is HY & Dhulbahante majority. Buhoodle district is densely populated, its population is not anywhere near "small".

Langaabs love to group themselves as Isaaq , Darood etc

 

[Younes Osman]

Togdheer is majority HY though that cancels out any HJ votes. As for Buhoodle district it is around 13% of Togdheer in population that is not small as it can swing things in the event of any vote.

But, my point is Togdheer would swing towards independent. in addition, Buhoodle town is not in SL. Furthermore, Buhoodle district that is within SL is mostly HJ near the Ethiopian border.

 

[Bohol]

But, my point is Togdheer would swing towards independent. in addition, Buhoodle town is not in SL. Furthermore, Buhoodle district that is within SL is mostly HJ near the Ethiopian border.

Don't talk crap. How would Togdheer swing towards independence if it is majority HY? with over 200,000 HY waiting in Gashaamo district in Ethiopia in case they are needed to register.


As for Buhoodle district it is around 98% Dhulos. The only village the HJ own in the area is called Qorilugud and it is not even in the district but the border.

 

[Younes Osman]

Don't talk crap. How would Togdheer swing towards independence if it is majority HY? with over 200,000 HY waiting in Gashaamo district in Ethiopia in case they are needed to register.


As for Buhoodle district it is around 98% Dhulos. The only village the HJ own in the area is called Qorilugud and it is not even in the district but the border.


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Despite the geographical error of the town of Qorilgud, I still genuinely believe HY population would vote strongly for independents. But, we will agree to disagree.
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[Bohol]

Despite the geographical error of the town of Qorilgud, I still genuinely believe HY population would vote strongly for independents. But, we will agree to disagree.
.

Well that is the only hope for Sland region in those 3 regions but very unlikely. Old generation of HY that believed in Isaaqism and other nonsense are dying out, new generation who only look out for their interests are taking over.

 

[nomand]

if the somali government can provide free education,jobs and security then somaliland dream will be over. but i want the somali government to focus on the south. for the next 5 to 10 years the somali government should not have any talks with somaliland.

 

[Faahiye]

Personally I am sympathetic for somali unity but I dont think the majority of Habar Yoonis would vote to unite with Somalia. Maybe in like 15 years that could change if Somalia gets rid of al Shabaab and shows some improvement.

 

[Samaalism]

Lmfao. If there was a referendum it would be a landslide. even if Habar Yonis voted stay they’d still lose. Waqooyi galbeed has about 3 times the population of awdal. Togdheer has the same pop as sool and sanaag put together. 1/3 of sool will vote leave whereas 2/3 of sanaag will vote leave. There is no doubt awdal would have a majority leave as they wouldn’t want to be outcasted by isaaq by voting stay and still losing the referendum.

Wax referendum oo dacaya majirto.

 

[Tukraq]

if the somali government can provide free education,jobs and security then somaliland dream will be over. but i want the somali government to focus on the south. for the next 5 to 10 years the somali government should not have any talks with somaliland.

Dumb, nows the chance, country can’t move forward until all of its included

 

[Wiil_Facaye]

4 out of 5 regions would return no, with Waqooyi Galbeed the last remaining region itself heavily contested.

But but Somaliland has bees while Somalia has land

 

[Younes Osman]

Lmfao. If there was a referendum it would be a landslide. even if Habar Yonis voted stay they’d still lose. Waqooyi galbeed has about 3 times the population of awdal. Togdheer has the same pop as sool and sanaag put together. 1/3 of sool will vote leave whereas 2/3 of sanaag will vote leave. There is no doubt awdal would have a majority leave as they wouldn’t want to be outcasted by isaaq by voting stay and still losing the referendum.

Wax referendum oo dacaya majirto.

I agree with that position, if a 3rd referendum is granted, there would be a high turnout of issaqs in favour of independences including some minority clans which would be more than enough for a majority vote. Personally, I do agree with Hassan sheikh on the issue of Somaliland because its a reality that can not be ignored. Therefore, part of the future of Somalia is to acknowledge and accept that Somaliland as an independent sovereign nation as well as maintain ties with Somaliland based on common grounds.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I agree with that position, if a 3rd referendum is granted, there would be a high turnout of issaqs in favour of independences including some minority clans which would be more than enough for a majority vote. Personally, I do agree with Hassan sheikh on the issue of Somaliland because its a reality that can not be ignored. Therefore, part of the future of Somalia is to acknowledge and accept that Somaliland as an independent sovereign nation as well as maintain ties with Somaliland based on common grounds.

Your not smart at all. Somalia is 'shape' right? you see how it looks, it's been carved on 'numbers' and 'parameters'. Your trying to carve it again but step into a 'vacuum'. It's like triangle shape that has numbers and lines no different so Somalia which is made up numbers and lines. Your arguing to take a piece of the 'triangle' but to where is the logic? nowhere, vacuum, since the wholew orld is defined shapes and lines, while your not 'joining' any shape, you carved a shape on the table in space of 'vacuum' your literally in mathamatical place of 'nothingness'. It's like having 100 shapes on the table, Isaaq put his shape among the shapes but fails to realize no other shapes are allowed since the world has been 'shaped' out, so u join non state actors now which is the 'vacuum' your in like the place of hamas, shabab, your exactly the same since your not shape among the member states.

@PhySom may get it, it's hard to explain to ppl who don't understand mathamatics. Your literally in non existent, there is not a single 'gain' Somalia gets to negiotate with you since it 'exists' within the defined mathamatical parameters of the world as nation state. What your doing is adding 'emotion' and how u like something to be, I could do that also and add my opinion and how I like something to be about the physical world, but it's not physics since the world of physics is numbers, not what I like. LOOOOOOOOL if I did what u did, I would be creating an alternate reality outside mathamatical concepts. It's nothingness again

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Younes Osman so technicallly speaking Somalia should 'ignore' you not 'entertain' you since your in a space where non state actors are in since your borders are not defined parameters and shapes of the world. You should be in something like an unstructured 'world', you broke the law bro, you shouldn't been rewarded. I really am angry with Somalia for entertaining u, it means u don't learn nidaam and hurt isaaq more in the world as you think this is normal where-ever u go untill u find out your classed non state actor rebel, terrorist, and all those name, they never give them real state names since you didn't go thru the process and procedures locally and then geopolitically. Your trying to fuckin do what u want like ghetto n2gga