Why Dr Osman Supports Clan Federalism

[DR OSMAN]

PPL assume Dr Osman is petty clannist masquarading as an intellectual, if that was only the case. Yes I do have pride of my ancestors, and sorry their is nothing essentially wrong with that, but why i support clan federalism is based on observable conditions in our culture and on-ground realities. So I will list the reasons for my support of clan federalism and I dare u refute it with any amount of 'reason' not 'feelings' of 'Somalinimo' and petty songs.

1. I haven't observed a single somali wide system in diaspora, youth, women, religious, or any social system that is functional and working. I apply logic 'hadi tan yar' aysan dhisan karin, 'tan wayn' macqul ma aha. Plus 15 failed national conferences placed a final blow in my faith on 1 centralized Somalia

2. Civil war wasn't based on colonialism(italian vs british somalis), so I do not support SL policy for that reason as it doesn't address the core issues of the civil war and actually tries to 'deflect or hide' it which is a 'recipe' for another civil war scenario as the core issue is left un-addressed to fester as we see in SL constantly.

3. Since 1960 till 1991, we applied the colonial legacy left behind of a highly centralized 1 city state model, this not only harmed our economic growth as the regions were neglected, it has left devastating political culture still following the colonial model legacy. Infact this small group in Mogadishu centralized everything from security, politics, economics, this also led to a single point of collapse in the end and possibly seen by foreign enemies as a 'good model' they can control or destroy us with quickly, since nothing is spread out.

4. Lack of reconcilation Post civil war Somalia, dad aan heeshish ahayn oo aanan isla hisabtamin and simply think by 'burying or let things fester' un-addressed do not provide me confidence to share a nation with, sorry but my reason over-rides any emotional argument u may present such as 'Somalinimo' and 'anti foreigner' all are emotional arguments to over-ride my reason. A guy who has weapons stored away, who doesn't like me or my clan either directly/indirectly due to the civil war, and u want me to risk my life or clan life by sharing a nation with that type of environment.

5. The positives of clan federalism simply outweigh it's negatives and addreses the root causes of our conflict, I also like the fact it allows for the conditions of competition economically, socially, politically, militarily, etc. I like the fact our nation will never be centralized for potential abuses and provides checks n balances, I like the fact foreigners cannot easily destroy us as our nation is 'spread' out. Dal curyan ah oo hal meel ka nool is the worst model even before we had a civil war.

So when u guys accuse me of clannism, know their is strong 'reasons' why I back it, yes the idea of lets singalong 1 somalinimo might 'feel' good but when assesed with our 'intelligence' u will see the pitfalls of such policy.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane as puntites we need to 'reflect' on ourselves regarding our negatives cause it's not all positive as u stated. An indication of a clan ready for peace is they hand over their weapons to the state or destroy it, Isaaq handed their shit over, this shows lots of clan maturity @SirLancelLord @Vito Rizutto.

No matter how many positive/negatives of that policy we argue which there is many, it won't deflect the fact we 'hide' our shit in our tuulos, marka waxaa la oran kara dadkas diyaar ma aha for peace as their still 'carrying heavy weapons' and don't trust other somalis, this is a huge blow to our state n clan credibility regarding our 'intentions' for peace.

That's why this is one area as a future 'isim' for my jifi, i want to bring puntites isim together for a 'medium' ground solution of at least 'controlled' storage of heavy weapns by the Isim council.

This means we can still pull them out in the event of 'clan war' and at the same time their controlled by our 'isimo' and it's not un-controlled n unfettered. Ideally we want to move towards a solution of total disarmament but this must also be realistic following on-ground security realities.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane but thru my careful analysis post 91 till now, The darods haven't shown once to use violence with other clans(pre-emptively), so it can be argued we hold a 'defence' posture only, the same cannot be said for HG who shows the worst record nationally. So their is 'grades' of mistrust and needs careful analysis.

Darods yes are not trustful to hand over their weapons, but they don't premeditate any 'war' since post 91 cannot be denied. The same cannot be said of HAGS who not only keep their weapons showing mistrust but every conflict they have shown to premeditate it.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane no clan is perfect tho, even the positives of Isaaqs demobilizing has led to clan tyranny in their state organs, they r the only admin who is still using violence to achieve policy, they even boast about that policy, their still run by SNM rebels, even their civil class has no power.

PL prides itself on 1 fact, it hasn't participated in any clan war pre-emptively, in-fact I've observed that defence posture in all darod clans post 91. HAGS have the worst track record, not demobilizing plus causing instability PRE-EMPTIVELY.

 

[Gadhwayne]

the most important reason dont forget it clan confederalism is the same as independence except you dont announce it with a declaration of independence. you just nullify anything done by the Somalia Italiana government and @Thegoodshepherd might say we are unionist unlike Soomaliland

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane when PL was built, no1 was forced to join, invitations were sent to all MJS/Hartis/Marehan/HG. Marehan refused to join but did later 'saaxo', HG totally rejected. It was built thru dialogue and consensus not thru violence n attacking everywhere like a mad man.

Isaaq lack the wisdom if u create something thru force, u will eventually fall to the same method. That's why I have always said SL sits on a fragile foundation due it's founding principles of violence and they even 'boast' about that policy.

This region founding principle of violence can only prove it's not a positive force in Somalia(backing shabab, attacking unionist clans such as samaroon/dhulbahante, refusing to reconcile with Garhajis), how can u hold a state on those foundation.

That's why mark my words it will happen, if SL is recognized, it will lead to clan war within itself(isaaq) and unionist clan, even if they get past that and hold the state together, the fragile foundation will force it to pursue destabilizing actors in Somalia, Jabuti, Eritrea, Ethiopia so it can keep it's ppl under the rule of violence by saying 'their is more violence' around ur region, which is the only model they can follow.

Mark my words and I will go to my grave with this, SL is the next 'Iran, North Korea' who was founded and use similar principles of 'violence n force' on it's ppl, as that's how they were founded, so what else can those type of countries contribute to the world? well nothing but fuelling anything 'negative' so more fires happen globally so it can keep the cracks of its fragile foundation from opening and lead to state collapse(after all it was founded with gun it will be toppled with guns)

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane

In summary clan wise this how I concluded my reasoning.

1. Isaaq was built thru violence, it will fall to violence. Shacabku wa halal tho, as they surrendered their weapons but the state is totally moryan due to it's founding principles. I do not hold much hope for it's long term survival state wise, they will always fuel instability regionally or globally like other states founded thru the same principle(north korea, iran, etc) or they will fall to violence like south sudan who created it's state on the same premise. My future prediction is bleak for them not out of hasidnimo but thru those facts.

2. Darod as a whole post 91 didn't hand over their weapons, showing their is underlying suspicions but post 91, their isn't a single conflict they started or invaded other clans, that's also undeniable. PL led the way by creating it's state thru peaceful means, so if it's going to be toppled it will come thru peaceful route. The ppl need to take one more brave step and begin handing over their weapons once the conditions are there or create some sort of 'middle' ground solution with an aspiration of 'full disarmament' yes 'aspirations' are not 'facts' it's like human rights at the U.N, it's an aspiration, and like all aspiration we must 'work' hard towards it.

3. Hawiye no state existed for so long, every instability roots back to them, every conflict has them as the invader or cause, their right at the bottom in terms of govt, social, n clan honesty.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@whitehartlane We know PL leaders refuse to stain itself or it's track record in the nation by not participating in clan wars, but we also need to acknowledge 'defence' from 'invaders' is also our policy, and las anod war doesn't violate our principles.

So Deni shouldn't just expect us to be slapped around and we just take it on the chin, that isn't our policy and never will be.

 

[nanat]

The only truly clan federalism that gonna work in Somalia is something like the Swiss system.
Every clan should be given their own Cantons.
Some clans will have large cantons that will be the size of some major European countries and some will be very tiny.
If we ignore this issue and add that our lack of true reconciliation our federal system will be worse than the central system.

 

[Macawisley]

The only truly clan federalism that gonna work in Somalia is something like the Swiss system.
Every clan should be given their own Cantons.
Some clans will have large cantons that will be the size of some major European countries and some will be very tiny.
If we ignore this issue and add that our lack of true reconciliation our federal system will be worse than the central system.

I don’t think the constitution is going to be changed anytime soon to 2 regions or more to become federal state to just Cantons.

 

[Macawisley]

I agree with @DR OSMAN, I also support clan federalism.

 

[DR OSMAN]

the most important reason dont forget it clan confederalism is the same as independence except you dont announce it with a declaration of independence. you just nullify anything done by the Somalia Italiana government and @Thegoodshepherd might say we are unionist unlike Soomaliland

Independence could work for Somali clans but it has pitfalls also. It won't foster the same-type of competition as federalism does internally, it's also unworkable to demand the international community accept 7 or so indepedent states for a population no more then 10 mill, giving them like 7 new U.N seats lol.

The scariest thing about independence is all the local attention will be on 'your state' but thru 'federalism' u can feed them to look elsewhere in the nation. Plus a poor country being split 7 ways, just makes them 7 times poorer and 7 times more irrelevant regionally/globally, in-fact larger nations could see that as a way to 'expand' itself to incorporate them. Their no point being a 'nation' in name only like Djibouti, do we want to replicate their insignificance also? in-fact the amount of land they already lost to oromo and anfar is 'warning' sign for all Somali clans about 'separation'.

At times when federal system has failed in the nation 'independence' does sound nice and is possibly the 'last' solution to execute, which our constitution in PL allows for if the security conditions on-ground do not get better or federalism is nullified or tampered with, then as a 'last resort' it's good way out to at least preserve what u 'have' if somalis r not prepared to preserve what they have.

 

[Macawisley]

I support your argument and I myself support clan federalism.

 

[Somali Saayid]

PPL assume Dr Osman is petty clannist masquarading as an intellectual

I think this wrong
We all know you are an intellectual who is a clannist.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I support your argument and I myself support clan federalism.

Somalis r a tough minded ppl who will not nudge or give even if u show them everything. War orodo dhulkina taga oo ismamula oo danaha dadkina ilashada is seen as 'horrendous'. When in-fact the first federalist was @bidenkulaha folk who told us to leave 'hamar' like they did to your clan later hawadle and when u do leave and say i'll stay where I am, let me rule myself, he switches kastumo to another 'we dont want' the regions to do their own thing, lol. Their is no reasoning with ppl like that.

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Kheyre SSDF didn't have a federalist agenda, it was going to replace Siyad Barre with an interim military control thru 'yey' so chaos doesn't ensue and then begin the processes for 'direct democracy' as the name says 'democracy front', SSDF were against his 'centralized military rule, excluding other elites', they were fighting to replace an existing 'system' with another system not a 'void' like USC, imagine telling SSDF folks @whitehartlane we gonna go topple siyad and replace it with nothing but allow unfettered clan chaos.

 

[Somali Saayid]

@Kheyre SSDF didn't have a federalist agenda, it was going to replace Siyad Barre with an interim military control thru 'yey' so chaos doesn't ensue and then begin the processes for 'direct democracy' as the name says 'democracy front', SSDF were against his 'centralized military rule, excluding other elites', we were replacing an existing 'system' with another system not a 'void' like USC.

No doubt the USC mooryans would've tried and stop it. These people do not know the meaning of xalaal work. They thrive in isbaarso and stateless institutions were only the expansionist agenda and constant warfare is the only solution and thing to do..

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Kheyre then ethiopia arrested 'YEY' and siyad bribed the rest of the rebels with a 'port n road for bari', but the SSDF must've realized ethiopia intention wasn't about replacing 'somali govt' and that's why they allowed SNM/USC to continue as they didn't have a 'post siyad barre somalia model like the SSDF did.

I guess ethio thought SNM will just go into isolation/secession n insignificance and USC will fall to chaos, and deemed 'yey' a threat to wake them up from their slumber and jailed him, who saw all that coming so he doesn't 'wake' them up. If ethio was genuine it wud bring all the rebels together and agree on 'post siyad barre model' before military phase is executed.

 

[DR OSMAN]

I won't be quite as blunt that ethio wanted post-somalia in chaos, either they were totally ignorant not to bring these rebel groups together to discuss what is going to replace siyad, or they knew they wouldn't agree and therefore wud halt the 'war' on siyad since they would've seen it wud just lead to a vacuum, or ethio just wanted siyad out so bad due to backing eritrean rebels, they just simply didn't care what happens post siyad, that's why when u see the rebels talking, their never discussing what 'system' they gonna bring other then SSDF, it's always 'dhigyacabka baan riddayna' fine hala riddo lakin what's next, they just look at u 'blindly' n say 'we dont know' we will discuss that when we get there loooooooool

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalis have learned the hard way tho 30 years of collapse, a bad system is always better then no system, it's a shame they have to learn the hard way always and not use intelligence 'prior'