Where is Somalia going?

[Bluefire]

As long as nothing drastic occurs Somalia should do pretty well.

But a civil war or afghan style al-shabab takeover will doom it.

 

[IPushFatKids]

Rwanda and Uganda are barely at 800 USD for their GDP per Capita.

800 USD GDP per Capita is extremely achievable figure for the FGS without even drilling for oil.

Ethiopia is at 900 USD and Kenya is at 1.8K USD GDP per Capita.

According to my calculations, it would take exactly 10 yrs for Somalia’s GDP to catch up to Rwanda ($800 per capita at 10% growth per annum). That in itself is extremely unlikely (maintaining 10% growth anytime soon, as it requires very good governance & security).

What makes it more unlikely is I didn’t even factor in population growth for those 10 years, which should make it longer by a few years.

 

[Bluefire]

According to my calculations, it would take exactly 10 yrs for Somalia’s GDP to catch up to Rwanda ($800 per capita at 10% growth per annum). That in itself is extremely unlikely (maintaining 10% growth anytime soon, as it requires very good governance & security).

What makes it more unlikely is I didn’t even factor in population growth for those 10 years, which should make it longer by a few years.

If there is oil in Somalia we can use Guyana as a case study as they began exporting oil last year.

Guyana will gain 30 billion in GDP from oil exports in the next 10 years.It only has 8 billion barrels if oil.

If somalia gets half of that in terms of growth it's economy will x4.

That way higher than 10% per year.

 

[IPushFatKids]

If there is oil in Somalia we can use Guyana as a case study as they began exporting oil last year.

Guyana will gain 30 billion in GDP from oil exports in the next 10 years.It only has 8 billion barrels if oil.

If somalia gets half of that in terms of growth it's economy will x4.

That way higher than 10% per year.

Very interesting, I was not aware of Guyana's new found oil wealth.

Guyana economy to grow 500% by 2030 as oil flows, minister says​

Guyana’s economy is expected to expand by 500% by 2030 as companies continue to plumb its offshore oil and gas reserves, a government official said on Wednesday.

The small South American country has become one of the world’s oil exploration hotspots after a group led by Exxon Mobil Corp discovered more than 9 billion barrels of oil and gas, transforming an impoverished Guyana economy that had been dependent on agriculture and mining.

“We expect to grow by 500% between now and 2030,” Foreign Minister Hugh Todd said. [... ]

“We know that oil is finite. It will run out, but we have traditional sectors that have been driving the economy for decades,” Todd said.

Guyana’s next oil lift could rake in almost US$80M

Smart president.

The former President reasoned that Guyana has to maximise the benefit from the industry and use those benefits to change lives of every Guyanese.

“We don’t know how swiftly we’ll get to a decarbonised world, but we have to make use of this period when there is still demand to get as much as possible out of the ground and that is why we support the rapid pace of the industry, but it must be done safely,” he related.
On a local radio programme called, “Guyana’s oil and you,” Jagdeo had said, pointedly, that even with the environmental concerns relating to oil production, Guyana does not have the option of leaving the oil in the ground.

It was reported, in May, that the country’s total revenue is expected to increase by 17 per cent, with earnings in the petroleum sector alone reaching well over US$500 million by the end of this year. With oil prices on a continuous rise, that figure could further skyrocket.