Where did it go wrong for Colonel Abye?

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
1. Using Amhara centric policy to govern and trying to reviving the Amhara priviledge era of the 1950s.
2.Undermining Oromos
3.Marginalising Somalis to peripheral positions.

Amhara have been taught one thing that is Ethiopia is a whitemans peoject just like Kenya and they should abide by what the white man dictates to them.As compared to false historical claims of the glorious menelik culture who was independent from the whiteman.


@Gardy
@ Calaf
@Abba Sadacha
@Removed
@SPMLegend
 

Calaf

Veni Vidi Vici
VIP
The day he came to power with this progressive, peaceful talk was his downfall. Releasing prisoners, forgiving Ginbot 7, allowing OMN back on air, then having the boldness to meet Naga, just hours after releasing him from death row. Wa PURE doqonimio.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
The day he came to power with this progressive, peaceful talk was his downfall. Releasing prisoners, forgiving Ginbot 7, allowing OMN back on air, then having the boldness to meet Naga, just hours after releasing him from death row. Wa PURE doqonimio.
The only thing good is he cleansed the qeerow dogs
 
1. Using Amhara centric policy to govern and trying to reviving the Amhara priviledge era of the 1950s.
2.Undermining Oromos
3.Marginalising Somalis to peripheral positions.

Amhara have been taught one thing that is Ethiopia is a whitemans peoject just like Kenya and they should abide by what the white man dictates to them.As compared to false historical claims of the glorious menelik culture who was independent from the whiteman.


@Gardy
@ Calaf
@Abba Sadacha
@Removed
@SPMLegend
Exactly the smartest way he could have taken to cement his power was to lure influncial Tigaru politicians and oppositionist to his camp by creating division within the TPLF that could have destroyed the party but instead he relayed on Amxaaro support and went to a disastrous ethnic cleansing war that crippled Ethiopian economy.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Exactly the smartest way he could have taken to cement his power was to lure influncial Tigaru politicians and oppositionist to his camp by creating division within the TPLF that could have destroyed the party but instead he relayed on Amxaaro support and went to a disastrous ethnic cleansing war that crippled Ethiopian economy.
He also ditched the West for China which is suicide.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
Ironically Ethiopia actually had great ties with China prior to Abiy coming in.In fact most of the debt to China comes from the previous government :wow:
That is why Meles was killed and the Eest threatened TPLF to stand down.

They did and the west brought Abye and told him to make changes at least to remove China or not give china the biggest stake in mineral exploitation.

Abye didnt listen he thought he is untouchable and decided to rebrand Amhara feudalism and entice China.
 
Tigray don't have the man power to win. It will come to war of attrition and amhara will win that. Amhara just need a power sharing agreement with Oromo.
 
Abiy could have won the war if he hadn't allowed Amhara militias to invade and slaughter western Tigray, and annex the disputed territories, and if he had taken a hard line on reprisals on the local population especially the rapes. That decisively turned the populace against the government and filled the ranks of the Tigray Defense Forces, who then proceeded to encircle the main ENDF army in the Tembien mountains and capture most of the Ethiopian Army's remaining military equipment.

The Oromo Liberation Army would still have formed and fought a guerrilla war in the south, but Abiy could have won that too if he had decisively defeated the TPLF. Amhara irridentist insanity and Abiy's reflexive appeasement of Amhara nationalism doomed his regime.

Part of the downfall of Abiy is he has interfered in the military strategy of his commanders, for instance insisting on a quick end to the TPLF in Tembien ordering his commanders to attack into the mountains rather than just wait them out.
 

Helios

Certified Liin Distributor
AQOONYAHAN
VIP
He fucked up by not waiting a bit longer to deal with the TPLF he could have tried to isku dir and incorporate Tigrayans into his new govt to remove the monopoly the TPLF has
Abiy could have won the war if he hadn't allowed Amhara militias to invade and slaughter western Tigray, and annex the disputed territories, and if he had taken a hard line on reprisals on the local population especially the rapes. That decisively turned the populace against the government and filled the ranks of the Tigray Defense Forces, who then proceeded to encircle the main ENDF army in the Tembien mountains and capture most of the Ethiopian Army's remaining military equipment.

The Oromo Liberation Army would still have formed and fought a guerrilla war in the south, but Abiy could have won that too if he had decisively defeated the TPLF.
ENDF are not that disciplined there's too much ethnic hatred in the country to allow for a clean campaign, also they didn't have the military capacity to do it alone without Eritrea or Amhara militias
 
Military discipline is maintained by setting examples, every army is made up of angry young men who if left to their own devices will rape and loot and burn stuff.

That's why you take the first couple looters and rapists and have their fellow soldiers execute them by firing squad. No one else will rape and loot after that.
 
abiy is playing exactly according to script, the idea is to completely break the amharas and finally with the support and interference of the west to reach a deal and settlement with the tigres and rule ethiopia through a oromo tigre alliance under the west.
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
abiy is playing exactly according to script, the idea is to completely break the amharas and finally with the support and interference of the west to reach a deal and settlement with the tigres and rule ethiopia through a oromo tigre alliance under the west.
Well he is as expired as Amhara.
 

repo

Recess
VIP
abiy is playing exactly according to script, the idea is to completely break the amharas and finally with the support and interference of the west to reach a deal and settlement with the tigres and rule ethiopia through a oromo tigre alliance under the west.
Abiy is marked for death, Tigray will never let him go let alone rule together with him. This war is till the end, there will not be a peace settlement between Abiy and Tigray. Amhara and Tigray with the latter taking control is possible.
 
Abiy is marked for death, Tigray will never let him go let alone rule together with him. This war is till the end, there will not be a peace settlement between Abiy and Tigray. Amhara and Tigray with the latter taking control is possible.
lets put aside our wishes and deal objectively with the situation in ethiopia, something i notice somalis are quite ill equipped for. the west will not let ethiopia fall as per the wishes of fanciful somalis semtiments, neither are they going to permit the amharas to come back to power. they are the most intransigent ethiopians and also the most nationalistic obviously their nationalism equates ethiopiia and amharism and so the ones most probably resistant to any western domination and lordship omce in power but good at using them for this end, more like their darood and kikuyu compatriots in kenya and somalia
 

Sheikh Kulkuli

Staff Member
lets put aside our wishes and deal objectively with the situation in ethiopia, something i notice somalis are quite ill equipped for. the west will not let ethiopia fall as per the wishes of fanciful somalis semtiments, neither are they going to permit the amharas to come back to power. they are the most intransigent ethiopians and also the most nationalistic obviously their nationalism equates ethiopiia and amharism and so the ones most probably resistant to any western domination and lordship omce in power but good at using them for this end, more like their darood and kikuyu compatriots in kenya and somalia
You are the only one who is ill equiped and using their own imagination thinking Abye will sort of stay.
Did Mengistu stay in 1991?

Just stick to somalia politics of Sheikh Sharif and Xassan Sheikh.
 
Amhara are being armed to the teeth. As I said this is going to be a war of attrition. Tigray at this moment are all fighting. Amhara are now starting to take up arms in mass. It is going to be bloody long war, it all depends on who the Oromo in the end make a deal with.

I think in the end Oromo and Amhara will make a deal which means TPLF will be destroyed. for Tigray they need a decisive and quick win which is why they are attacking amhara regions like dessie while tigray regions in the west are still in government and amhara hands. so instead of liberating west tigray they are more focused on capturing the road between Djibouti to Addis.

The longer this drags the more Oromo will question their casualties and how to resolve it. for Amhara this is win or die same for tigray. there is 30 million amhara vs 4 million tigray. It is clear the two biggest Ethnicities will sit down and make a deal it might take a month or 10 years but that is how this will end.
 

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