OPINION What would Deni's policy be towards Jubaland

[InaShaqalle]

If he was to convert Puntland into a 'gareen' maamul he and the federal government would have Banadir and 4 out of 5 states under it's control. This would leave Jubaland as the last state standing.

Would Gedo remain ruled by the FGS or become an autonomous no man's land? Will Middle Juba be liberated by the SNA from the terrorists? Will the Madobe administration brought under heel, paving the way for Deni to replace Madobe against his will for someone new (and what clan gets the JL state presidency?)

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

Every single Puntland President has supported President Madoobe (Farole, Gaas, Deni) and this will not change if Deni becomes Federal President.

 

[TekNiKo]

He would do the same thing he is doing support the Kenyan backed warlord, Madoobe at all costs and isolate Gedo. His hatred even reached the poor students studying there.

 

[InaShaqalle]

I've come back to this thread because there's a good chance Deni can win. Deni should be anti Kenya but pro Madobe as long as Madobe allows the federal government have ultimate power over this regional state

 

[Oday-yar]

He will probably support madobe because madobe has shown to be a strong man and puntland need that because if jubaland is conquered either by hawiye president or marehan president, puntland will be next and they know that. It deni wins, i see madobe coming back for 4 more years and finally middle juba will be freed.

 

[bidenkulaha]

He will probably support madobe because madobe has shown to be a strong man and puntland need that because if jubaland is conquered either by hawiye president or marehan president, puntland will be next and they know that. It deni wins, i see madobe coming back for 4 more years and finally middle juba will be freed.

Deni has very little chance. He’s running for PM.

Madoobe will have to respect Jubaland constitution eventually so it’s inevitable that change will happen. It’s up to him who his replacement is however.

 

[Dalalos_ibn_Adali]

Deni is only pro-Madoobe because they have common interest, Deni is against other FMS and he wants to destroy them, if he becomes President he will destroy these FMS or help them destroy themselves. Eventually Deni will also get rid of Madoobe and install a loyal puppet, but that only happens if Madoobe acts up.

Final stage Deni will actually destroy the FGS and move towards confederalism or secession for JL and PL who at that point are under his dictatorial rule.

At that point some sort of coalition will form to resit Deni, but it would be too late, the mistrust and hate coupled with a weaker army etc will make Deni and his UAE/Kenyan backers unstoppable.

 

[Gulgul]

Deni is only pro-Madoobe because they have common interest, Deni is against other FMS and he wants to destroy them, if he becomes President he will destroy these FMS or help them destroy themselves. Eventually Deni will also get rid of Madoobe and install a loyal puppet, but that only happens if Madoobe acts up.

Final stage Deni will actually destroy the FGS and move towards confederalism or secession for JL and PL who at that point are under his dictatorial rule.

At that point some sort of coalition will form to resit Deni, but it would be too late, the mistrust and hate coupled with a weaker army etc will make Deni and his UAE/Kenyan backers unstoppable.

Jubbaland and puntland are separated by three states don’t see how they can come together after secession

 

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@InaShaqalle The FGS no matter who heads it is incapable of invading militarily and it is also unable to host parallel elections because of the IC. Madoobes JL is impregnable to the fgs which is why the political climate surrounding an Ogaden JL particularly after Farmajos(MXs) miserable results has completely reversed.

As for the Kenya bit the JL admins always been cooperative, asking for JL to remove Amisom(Kenya) is however a completely childish request. What involvement does Kenya have in JL that is not completely standard of Amisom everywhere?

 

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He will probably support madobe because madobe has shown to be a strong man and puntland need that because if jubaland is conquered either by hawiye president or marehan president, puntland will be next and they know that. It deni wins, i see madobe coming back for 4 more years and finally middle juba will be freed.

MZ will not get another 4 years ill tell you that right now. Cawlyahan will get the presidency and it will almost definitely be Seeraar if his alleged health issues dont cause him problems.

 

[DHOONYACAB]

No smart presiden will waste his tenure fighting jubbaland-Deni is a federalist and will support jubbaland-Not very compilicated.-

 

[DHOONYACAB]

MZ will not get another 4 years ill tell you that right now. Cawlyahan will get the presidency and it will almost definitely be Seeraar if his alleged health issues dont cause him problems.

We dont care sub clan nin wax iska dhicin karo ma yahay?

 

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We dont care sub clan nin wax iska dhicin karo ma yahay?

Don’t misunderstand me I have no care for subclans which is why I dont share mine.

But if we push Cawlyahan again this state will collapse just like the SPM. Seeraar is a good man educated and homegrown RKB veteran.

 

[DHOONYACAB]

Cawlyahan have math on the table-baardheere and faafaxdhuun are missing-

 

[Oday-yar]

MZ will not get another 4 years ill tell you that right now. Cawlyahan will get the presidency and it will almost definitely be Seeraar if his alleged health issues dont cause him problems.

I welcome that. Will seerar be strong enough mentally and be savvy enough politically to deal with guys like farmajo the way ahmed did? Also cawlyahans have this deep love for ilkayaars and “darod”. So bizzare. I would trust makahil or tolomoge before them, no offense bro:

 

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Cawlyahan have math on the table-baardheere and faafaxdhuun are missing-

Gotta get Buaale and Salagle first then we can go for phase 2

I welcome that. Will seerar be strong enough mentally and be savvy enough politically to deal with guys like farmajo the way ahmed did? Also cawlyahans have this deep love for ilkayaars and “darod”. So bizzare. I would trust makahil or tolomoge before them, no offense bro:

I never said I was Cawlyahan brother I really dont care much for any name under Kuumade.

Seeraar has the same advisors and idealogy as Madoobe he was also a soldier and is a tough man. Xidig which represents Muqabul is untrustworthy and Gandhi(AUN) passed away unfortunately

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[DHOONYACAB]

Gotta get Buaale and Salagle first then we can go for phase 2

I never said I was Cawlyahan brother I really dont care much for any name under Kuumade.

Seeraar has the same advisors and idealogy as Madoobe he was also a soldier and is a tough man. Xidig which represents Muqabul is untrustworthy and Gandhi(AUN) passed away unfortunately

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Ind cawlyahan waa laandheeraha Absame,they more than deserve to lead and will lead from jigjiga to kismayo pretty soon-My case for madoobe was never about kursi-its him forcing reality on those that gave them selfs our land-Waa wiil hoog raggi soo duulay ciil baray-And you dont disrespect that,you cultivate that and walcome it and support it till jubbaland stands on its own 2 feet.

 

[Removed]

Ind cawlyahan waa laandheeraha Absame,they more than deserve to lead and will lead from jigjiga to kismayo pretty soon-My case for madoobe was never about kursi-its him forcing reality on those that gave them selfs our land-Waa wiil hoog raggi soo duulay ciil baray-And you dont disrespect that,you cultivate that and walcome it and support it till jubbaland stands on its own 2 feet.

He will remain as an advisory shadow maybe he will go for a presidency but if we follow the Somali metric of “if hes strong follow him till he dies” we will get exactly what other Somalis get, stagnation.

Its why Madoobe limits himself in the dastur he realizes the state needs to stand outside of him and have a culture of its own. Our politicians will now be coming from within JLs admin and not as ex-UN workers in Nairobi or Iley splinters. Heres a paper on the courts in Kismayo and how he has made them largely independent from himself.

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/109317/2/The_kismayo_bubble_updated.pdf

 

[DHOONYACAB]

He will remain as an advisory shadow maybe he will go for a presidency but if we follow the Somali metric of “if hes strong follow him till he dies” we will get exactly what other Somalis get, stagnation.

Its why Madoobe limits himself in the dastur he realizes the state needs to stand outside of him and have a culture of its own. Our politicians will now be coming from within JLs admin and not as ex-UN workers in Nairobi or Iley splinters. Heres a paper on the courts in Kismayo and how he has made them largely independent from himself.

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/109317/2/The_kismayo_bubble_updated.pdf

You are right in all your views,i dont dispute that-Am also not saying rule till he dies,am saying till the state stable-Gedo brought under the banner and buale free-seeraar should lead buale duulaan to get his confidence up-

 

[Oday-yar]

Gotta get Buaale and Salagle first then we can go for phase 2

I never said I was Cawlyahan brother I really dont care much for any name under Kuumade.

Seeraar has the same advisors and idealogy as Madoobe he was also a soldier and is a tough man. Xidig which represents Muqabul is untrustworthy and Gandhi(AUN) passed away unfortunately

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I really don't like to get into the inner differences of ogaden but every ogaden farmajo lover i have come across has been cawlyahan, and a lot of them. it's weird how they buy into the whole darod bullshit. as long as madobe remains in kismayo idc. I trust him to always defend ogaden interest more than anyone else, but seraar is not bad either as long as the dumb cawlyahan ugases like ina qorane who supported farmajo don't get in his ear.