It's a hsm masterclass of political acumen and maneuvering. It took him only few years to make alshabab into a legitimate stakeholder in Somalia by the world. In few years these people would be praising alshaba and standing next to them as they hand over the country to them hahahhaga
I wouldn’t be so optimistic, shabab engages in corruption and extortion too. but it does explain why HSM isn’t that focused on AS, ileen hadal bu kulu dhex jiray.
The phone ringing in the video bruh.
this was obvious when the stalemate continued for years. its been a stalemate since around 2015. too many somalis have buried their heads in the sand which is shocking because if you drive a short distance outside xarunta degmada (in most of konfuria) you reach AS checkpoints.
But the thing is what reason would al shabaab have to negotiate with the fgs when they assume that 1) foregin troops will not stay forever and 2) they would be able to militarily take over the south once foreign troops are gone. So direct negotiations between fgs and al shabaab will likely never happen. If anything al shabaab would just directly negotiate with the neighboring and western countries in Doha with the fgs excluded the way the afghan government was from the Taliban-US negotiations.
That would be futile. They aren’t the Taliban which is really just a glorified Pashtun tribal militia. They are international terrorists. If you sit down with a group of them, what is to stop part of them continuing their ‘jihad’? Isn’t this exactly what we see with Madobe, Wasiir TikTok, Roobow, Aweys, and to a lesser extent even Shariif?
They’ve proven their strategy is to outlast FGS and they have unfortunately so far been successful at that because they can think long term and strategically instead of about kursi and maxa cuna.
They tried to invaded galbeed before and failed at it, they were repulsed by the regional Somali forces. That is why AS isn't as powerful as people think, any moderately well equipped and serious army will be able to wipe them out. The only truly dangerous aspect of AS is how entrenched they are in the clan system.
Their sphere of influence is limited to the south. Highly unlikely that they’ll try to expand out.
Shabaab was planted in Somalia by the same people who will now bring them to the table to call it a day and surrender. Just watch and observe as time goes by.
