They were actually getting destroyed quite hard from 2011-2013 which forced them to switch to guerrila warfare. They no longer have the capability to conduct large scale campaigns let alone successful ones as seen in Ethiopia.
UN special rep tells Xamar its over!
- Thread starter The Oponian Guild
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That sort of war would require gurmaad from non-konfuur Somali states, and theres more chance of hair growing out of my palms than such a scenario ever taking place.
Yes they do have support from a large chunk of Somali society. But the masses are fickle, when AS is on the back foot they'll claim to have been staunchly pro FGS.
lol there seems to AS supporters even here on this forum. Cajib
Abdisamad
VIP
These shabab terrorists rats need to be destroyed once for all.. Hopefully we elect a competent Somali president after Qoslaye term runs out then the necessary unity of the nation will be established and gurmad will follow to destroy the shabaab.lol there seems to AS supporters even here on this forum. Cajib
Still being in the field is a success for them. And didn’t that happen because of political conflicts and the failure of the Ramadan offensive rather than any attack on them?
More and more I wonder what Puntland stands to gain from its wait and see approach to the south. AS stands because of FGS incompetence and corruption, any deal with AS is unacceptable and means we will pay an enormous price in the future for it.
The south and pockets elsewhere such as sc kastumo are comfortable with the status quo and the low level thinking, but for the rest of us; we need to protect the future generations.
The south and pockets elsewhere such as sc kastumo are comfortable with the status quo and the low level thinking, but for the rest of us; we need to protect the future generations.
Alshabaab’s success is less about its own strength and more about the FGS incompetence. Even if they were defeated in an all-out war, its fighters would simply discard their cimaamad, blend in as civilians, and regroup to wage guerrilla insurgency. Meanwhile, the FGS will continue to be too weak to withstand the chaotic clan-based political environment, making alshabab's return inevitable.
There can't be any real solution to the alshabab problem without addressing the underlying clan dynamics of koonfur. This is why Puntland and Somaliland are more resilient - internal cohesion strengthens them against external threats. In Koonfurta, clans may even prefer alshabab rule over domination by rival clans, because of the hopelessness and brutality of living under another clan's oppressive control.
The best way to defeat Alshabab - in my opinion - is for the IC/West/USA to step back and stop acting as a buffer between the FGS and Alshabab. If the FGS can't survive on its own (like PL/SL) and Alshabas takes over, the same harsh clan environment AND their brutal islamist system would eventually erode their ability to exist - or force them to evolve into a more manageable entity. At that point, the international community could re-engage once Salafi/jihadi ideology either eliminated from Somalia or had taken different pragmatic realities.
No one president can defeat Alshabab - not Kheyre not Deni. Everyone is a Mooryaan here.
There can't be any real solution to the alshabab problem without addressing the underlying clan dynamics of koonfur. This is why Puntland and Somaliland are more resilient - internal cohesion strengthens them against external threats. In Koonfurta, clans may even prefer alshabab rule over domination by rival clans, because of the hopelessness and brutality of living under another clan's oppressive control.
The best way to defeat Alshabab - in my opinion - is for the IC/West/USA to step back and stop acting as a buffer between the FGS and Alshabab. If the FGS can't survive on its own (like PL/SL) and Alshabas takes over, the same harsh clan environment AND their brutal islamist system would eventually erode their ability to exist - or force them to evolve into a more manageable entity. At that point, the international community could re-engage once Salafi/jihadi ideology either eliminated from Somalia or had taken different pragmatic realities.
No one president can defeat Alshabab - not Kheyre not Deni. Everyone is a Mooryaan here.
Yes, during the early 2010s AS was seeing a wave of defections and general weakening of their structure. This actually ties in to my main point about AS: they do not have the ability to fully rule over koonfur. Their ideology and practices are fundamentally foreign to Somali culture and alienates the vast majority of locals hence why they mostly rule through fear and extortion. Remember when AS quickly blitzed through and reconquered koonfur from TFG/Ethiopian forces in 2007-2009? Because they had the widespread support of Somalis both inside and even among the diaspora. That is no longer the case hence why AS isn't able to replicate the same feat 16 years later. Legitimacy is really the most important aspect any group needs to have.
Abdisamad
VIP
It's all in our mutual interest to defeat Al shabab and build a strong Somali nation.. Don't let your opposition to the muqdisho clowns push you away from Somali nationhood.I’d rather we didn’t. Think on what would happen after a hypothetical AS defeat.
Legitimacy is based on power and strength. The people must fear the FGS more than Al Shabab.
Al Shabab engaging in mass bombings in Xamar doesn’t affect tribes supporting them because they don’t fear repercussions from the FGS. They have nothing to worry about. What if the FGS engaged in massive aerial bombardments of Shabab regions in response? The people would force Al Shabab to limit their mass bombings due to repercussions.
When the British fought against the Dervish, they used to punish supporting clans by confiscating their livestock, destroying wells, limiting their grazing etc. And it worked, people were fearful of supporting Dervish over the British.
Launching a campaign of annihilation against Shabab is the only hope the FGS has to defeat them, starting with Jilib being turned into ashes.
Mate Koonfur has a larger population than Tigray which raised 250,000 soldiers to fight Abiy
reer
VIP
you would have to bomb and massacre marehan abgaal habar gidir d&m. those are some clans that AS gets alot of help from. tell me do you think hsm will launch an onslaught on sections of his clan? will farmajo do it? will abdirahman abdishakur start massacring cayr?
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The Somali nation died in the reign of barre and the carnage that ensued thereafter, bro it’s over, so over. The era of Qabil and provincial mentality has returned. A process of gradual dispersion has begun, though I’m sure the future generations will remember their Somali past. All states are doomed to collapse and Somalia never looked to be able to withstand the long march into collapse .
I’d be surprised if they could raise 10,000 without half of them defecting to AS, and a quarter going AWOL. The issue has always been the loyalties and discipline of said troops.Mate Koonfur has a larger population than Tigray which raised 250,000 soldiers to fight Abiy
It’s all about priorities, and whether the people think Al Shabab are their enemy, or not. Whether it’s worth defeating them, or not. So far, the answer to those questions in Koonfur is no.
Before we talk about massive onslaughts, the FGS even lets Shabab fighters leave besieged villages with their weapons. This isn’t a real war.
reer
VIP
the local SNA might make deals with them THEY ARE USUALLY ILMO ADEER. its not hordes of AS marehan fighters capturing tuulos in middle shabelle.
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It would not be very difficult for Puntland to fight against Alshabab in koonfur while detrering the iidoor.
This is why I am in favor of a strong SSC, that includes both Warsangeli and Dhulbahante and that is militarily capable of taking on Isaaq on its own. Puntland can then focus on its southern problems.
When AIAI were militarily defeated in Bari, Reer Bari let their own boys off the hook. They allowed them to reintegrate into society.
The Ciise Maxamuud in Nugaal went into the masaajids where Ciise Maxamuud AIAI members sought shelter and butchered them with knives.
Guess what region is terror free today and which one still has problems?
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