So according to the sources, Somalia approached Abu Dhabi to secure its long-term fight against militant groups and fill the possible vacuum that Erdogan’s departure would bring.
Erdogan, however, defied expectations and won the election, coming out on top in a second round.
Though this was no doubt a factor in Somalia’s shifting response to the UAE deal, what really changed Mogadishu’s thinking on Turkey was Ethiopia's developing ties with the breakaway Somaliland state earlier this year, which deeply concerned Mogadishu.
In January, Ethiopia signed an agreement that grants it naval and commercial access to ports along Somaliland’s coast, in exchange for recognition of the region’s independence. Mogadishu declared the pact illegal.
Somalia lacks an air force as well as a navy. So, any Ethiopian attempt to impose its will in Somalia’s waters wouldn’t receive any response from Somali forces.
But Turkey could offer a counterbalance. It already has a military base and warships that operate off the coast of Somalia as part of a UN anti-piracy force.
“The United Arab Emirates is likely the country most disturbed by the Turkey-Somalia security and defence agreement,” wrote Mehmet Ozkan, a professor at the National Defence University in Turkey.
“The UAE has been conducting serious diplomacy for the last year to sign a very similar or even more advanced security agreement with Somalia. However, the response from Somalia has been reluctant - which is why there is both reaction and disappointment on the part of the UAE about this development.”
Erdogan, however, defied expectations and won the election, coming out on top in a second round.
Though this was no doubt a factor in Somalia’s shifting response to the UAE deal, what really changed Mogadishu’s thinking on Turkey was Ethiopia's developing ties with the breakaway Somaliland state earlier this year, which deeply concerned Mogadishu.
In January, Ethiopia signed an agreement that grants it naval and commercial access to ports along Somaliland’s coast, in exchange for recognition of the region’s independence. Mogadishu declared the pact illegal.
Somalia lacks an air force as well as a navy. So, any Ethiopian attempt to impose its will in Somalia’s waters wouldn’t receive any response from Somali forces.
But Turkey could offer a counterbalance. It already has a military base and warships that operate off the coast of Somalia as part of a UN anti-piracy force.
Qatar concerns
Then came the defence deal with Turkey, whose contents are still kept confidential by the respective governments. Reportedly it mandates Ankara to protect Somali sea waters against infringements for the next 10 years. Some Ankara insiders say the deal is also backed by Qatar, the UAE’s Gulf rival.“The United Arab Emirates is likely the country most disturbed by the Turkey-Somalia security and defence agreement,” wrote Mehmet Ozkan, a professor at the National Defence University in Turkey.
“The UAE has been conducting serious diplomacy for the last year to sign a very similar or even more advanced security agreement with Somalia. However, the response from Somalia has been reluctant - which is why there is both reaction and disappointment on the part of the UAE about this development.”
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