Two Region = One State rule needs to be dismantled. I want a State for Gedo.

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
I've seen a lot of people saying let's go back to 18 regions but that doesn't fit the current modern landscape. A future fms Hiiraan or Gedo would certainly benefit from becoming independent of Jowhar and Kismayo respectively but it wouldn't serve the interests of Reer PL who are perfectly happy with this current iteration of their FMS (bordering their sister state SSC-K and possibly a future Makahir state.)

However constitutionally speaking and I hope you've skimmed the constitution of Somalia before (It was available on Villa Somalia website in English and Af Somali.) To form a FMS you need to constituent regions minimum. In the case of Gal-Mudug, it was suppose to be Galgaduud and Mudug. However in it's current form it's a 1.5 state (Galgaduud and southern Mudug), falling just short of what should be a proper and legal FMS but everyone mostly turns a blind eye to this.

Back to my original point, I will use the region of Gedo as my primary example as it is relevant to me as someone of the dominant Marexaan clan.


Gedo
1745866390932.jpeg

Gedo today is equivalent or large to the size of the following countries

Here's a list of countries in Europe, the Middle East, and South America that are smaller than or roughly equal in size to Gedo (approx. 87,000 km²):




Europe


  1. Austria – 83,900 km²
  2. Czech Republic – 78,900 km²
  3. Ireland – 70,300 km²
  4. Lithuania – 65,300 km²
  5. Latvia – 64,600 km²
  6. Croatia – 56,600 km²
  7. Bosnia and Herzegovina – 51,200 km²
  8. Slovakia – 49,000 km²
  9. Estonia – 45,300 km²
  10. Denmark (mainland) – ~43,000 km²
  11. Netherlands – 41,500 km²
  12. Switzerland – 41,300 km²
  13. Belgium – 30,500 km²
  14. Albania – 28,700 km²
  15. North Macedonia – 25,700 km²
  16. Slovenia – 20,300 km²
  17. Montenegro – 13,800 km²
  18. Kosovo – 10,900 km²
  19. Luxembourg – 2,586 km²
  20. Andorra, Malta, San Marino, Monaco, Liechtenstein, Vatican City – All much smaller



Middle East


  1. Israel – 22,000 km²
  2. Lebanon – 10,400 km²
  3. Qatar – 11,600 km²
  4. Bahrain – 760 km²
  5. Kuwait – 17,800 km²
  6. United Arab Emirates – 83,600 km²
  7. Jordan – 89,300 km² (just slightly larger)


All of these countries are well functioning or mostly functioning independent countries all smaller of equal in size to Gedo region, they all have their own systems of government, standing security/military force, judiciary and all the other trappings of a state.


So certainly size doesn't matter when it comes to state, how about population?

Suriname and Guyana two south American countries are much larger in territory yet much smaller in population both maintain good standards of living relative to the rest of Somalia.

I can't think of any other reason one might try and argue to disqualify Gedo as FMS. It would be a blessing for both the native MX and the regime in Kismayo. No more political headaches from FGS trying to start problems in JL if JL and Gedo went sperate ways. Where they could both maintain a formal realtionship as neighbouring states, maybe even allies considering it would be in the interests of a completely AS free JL (Middle and Lower Juba) that a future Gedo becomes a customer of Kismayo port.


Without any JL influencing local Gedo politics, the horgals who line their pockets and rule in Ahmed Madobes name would be out of a job forcing the political class to adapt not to the needs of politicians from Xamar or a neighbouring state but to their own constituents.

I'm sure there is many things I'm forgetting to cover here and I will update this thread but I wanted to at least get a chance towrite down a couple things I've been thinking about.

It's very different when you go back to read something youve wrote down from an idea of the top of your head. You get an almost birds eye view of what your trying to communicate and you see the flaws or missed idea you've proposed.



Also @Removed and @Abaq so gal, I Wana hear your thoughts as jubbalanders. I know Abaq is fond of the word ' Madhalays Republic. ' but I think JL is the very same but in FMS form, a failed experiment that should separate. I wouldn't even mind leaving Middle Jubba thought it has lots of agricultural potential, to clear AS from their strongest region is a tough and gruelling job something I wouldnt want a future Gedo State to be involved with.

1745868334750.png


State of Gedo.
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
I asked for ChatGPTs input



---

Yes, Gedo Should Be Allowed to Become a Federal Member State

1. Constitutional Grounds (Article 49 of the Provisional Constitution):

Somalia’s 2012 Provisional Constitution allows for the formation of new federal member states by two or more regions that voluntarily merge. While Gedo alone may not meet that exact criterion, the Constitution is vague, and exceptions have been made (e.g., Hirshabelle was formed by a merger of two small regions).


2. Distinct Identity & Marginalization:

Gedo has historically felt marginalized within Jubbaland, both politically and administratively:

The dominant leadership in Kismayo (largely led by the Marehan’s rival clans) has been accused of sidelining Gedo’s interests.

Gedo has often functioned semi-autonomously, with limited support or service delivery from the Jubbaland government.


This creates a strong case for self-rule, where local governance would better represent local interests.


---

3. Size and Viability:

With an area of about 87,000 km², Gedo is:

Larger than 20+ countries in Europe

Larger than all of the current federal member states in Somalia except Puntland


While its population (~1,005,902) is modest, it is comparable to or larger than countries like Guyana or Bhutan.


---

4. Security and Governance Capability:

Gedo has shown the ability to administer its own security, especially in towns like Dollow and Beled Hawo, often independently of the Jubbaland government.

Strong community cohesion and diaspora support mean it could potentially build local governance institutions with help from international partners.



---

5. Balance of Power & Political Inclusion:

Allowing Gedo to become a federal state could:

Encourage greater inclusion of all Somali clans in federal governance.

Defuse tensions between the Federal Government and Jubbaland, which have been especially high due to disputes over Gedo.

Create a more representative federal system, avoiding concentration of power in certain regions.



---

Potential Counterarguments (and Responses):

“Gedo doesn’t qualify alone under the Constitution”
→ True, but precedents show flexible interpretation. The spirit of the law is more important than the strict letter if the goal is lasting peace.

“It would fragment Somalia further”
→ Somalia is already a federal system; fragmentation is managed through structure, not suppressed through centralization. Denying legitimate claims often worsens division.

“Clan-based federalism is dangerous”
→ All current member states were influenced by clan dynamics. The real issue is governance capacity and fairness—not clan identity alone.



---

Conclusion:

Gedo has a strong case to be recognized as a federal member state—based on its size, historical grievances, constitutional flexibility, and the need for inclusive federalism. With proper international support and a roadmap for institutional development, it could function effectively and contribute to Somalia’s stability.
 

Vacelere

Wisdom-Honor-Might
I asked for ChatGPTs input



---

Yes, Gedo Should Be Allowed to Become a Federal Member State

1. Constitutional Grounds (Article 49 of the Provisional Constitution):

Somalia’s 2012 Provisional Constitution allows for the formation of new federal member states by two or more regions that voluntarily merge. While Gedo alone may not meet that exact criterion, the Constitution is vague, and exceptions have been made (e.g., Hirshabelle was formed by a merger of two small regions).


2. Distinct Identity & Marginalization:

Gedo has historically felt marginalized within Jubbaland, both politically and administratively:

The dominant leadership in Kismayo (largely led by the Marehan’s rival clans) has been accused of sidelining Gedo’s interests.

Gedo has often functioned semi-autonomously, with limited support or service delivery from the Jubbaland government.


This creates a strong case for self-rule, where local governance would better represent local interests.


---

3. Size and Viability:

With an area of about 87,000 km², Gedo is:

Larger than 20+ countries in Europe

Larger than all of the current federal member states in Somalia except Puntland


While its population (~1,005,902) is modest, it is comparable to or larger than countries like Guyana or Bhutan.


---

4. Security and Governance Capability:

Gedo has shown the ability to administer its own security, especially in towns like Dollow and Beled Hawo, often independently of the Jubbaland government.

Strong community cohesion and diaspora support mean it could potentially build local governance institutions with help from international partners.



---

5. Balance of Power & Political Inclusion:

Allowing Gedo to become a federal state could:

Encourage greater inclusion of all Somali clans in federal governance.

Defuse tensions between the Federal Government and Jubbaland, which have been especially high due to disputes over Gedo.

Create a more representative federal system, avoiding concentration of power in certain regions.



---

Potential Counterarguments (and Responses):

“Gedo doesn’t qualify alone under the Constitution”
→ True, but precedents show flexible interpretation. The spirit of the law is more important than the strict letter if the goal is lasting peace.

“It would fragment Somalia further”
→ Somalia is already a federal system; fragmentation is managed through structure, not suppressed through centralization. Denying legitimate claims often worsens division.

“Clan-based federalism is dangerous”
→ All current member states were influenced by clan dynamics. The real issue is governance capacity and fairness—not clan identity alone.



---

Conclusion:

Gedo has a strong case to be recognized as a federal member state—based on its size, historical grievances, constitutional flexibility, and the need for inclusive federalism. With proper international support and a roadmap for institutional development, it could function effectively and contribute to Somalia’s stability.
Gedo shouldn't break from jubbaland.

Gedo is a critical part of jubbaland

Is AM rule your problem
 
I disagree , clan states are a never ending cycle , if theres a gedo state then the same problems with JL will happen but on a jifo level or galti vs guri

Jubaland as a whole has immense potential if theres right leadership . You should never lessen your hammi , more land and people to rule is always better .

Im even a fan of the lix gobol / konfuur / maayland proposal . Would be the most powerful federal state with the best lands . A man can dream
IMG_2478.jpeg
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
Gedo shouldn't break from jubbaland.

Gedo is a critical part of jubbaland

Is AM rule your problem
No I think it would be beneficial for both parties to consider a divorce for a lack of better wording. Gedo isn't a critical part of JL I believe both can function completely independent of one another.
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
I disagree , clan states are a never ending cycle , if theres a gedo state then the same problems with JL will happen but on a jifo level or galti vs guri

Jubaland as a whole has immense potential if theres right leadership . You should never lessen your hammi , more land and people to rule is always better .

Im even a fan of the lix gobol / konfuur / maayland proposal . Would be the most powerful federal state with the best lands . A man can dream View attachment 360116
Gedo is a region not a clan, it is however synonymous with one clan. I think their is precedent for a self governing Gedo. (18 regions format). Also this lix gobol Maryland or whatever is nonsense. They share Bakool with a small Ogaden community and I believe some HG and other minorite on the SWS coast. Everywhere else RX are a minority or non existent Gedo, Middle Jubba and Lower Jubba.
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
So who would rule who in term of qabil
In theory it would be a democratic state in a ideal Somalia where 1m1v is the norm. However in reality it would never be anyone but Marexaan. It would just be a question of whom from among Marexaan (the majority population)!
 

Vacelere

Wisdom-Honor-Might
In theory it would be a democratic state in a ideal Somalia where 1m1v is the norm. However in reality it would never be anyone but Marexaan. It would just be a question of whom from among Marexaan (the majority population)!
You can see that HSM don't want to recognize SSC to quell Darood power why would you think he or any other president will agree on having another darood state.
 
Gedo is a region not a clan, it is however synonymous with one clan. I think their is precedent for a self governing Gedo. (18 regions format). Also this lix gobol Maryland or whatever is nonsense. They share Bakool with a small Ogaden community and I believe some HG and other minorite on the SWS coast. Everywhere else RX are a minority or non existent Gedo, Middle Jubba and Lower Jubba
Niyahow lets be honest here , you want gedo state so we ( mx ) have our own FMS , thats short sighted and pessimistic , why quit jubaland and all of its potential and barwaqo when we can have it all . We wont leave Kismayo behind for dadkale
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
You can see that HSM don't want to recognize SSC to quell Darood power why would you think he or any other president will agree on having another darood state.
Obviously a hawiye president wouldn't agree, however in the future if the circumstances were to align with the interests of the FGS a possible recognition of a state in Gedo could be in the table
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
Niyahow lets be honest here , you want gedo state so we ( mx ) have our own FMS , thats short sighted and pessimistic , why quit jubaland and all of its potential and barwaqo when we can have it all . We wont leave Kismayo behind for dadkale
I am sick and tired of the nonstop headache that I get when I look at Gedo. Sometimes sacrficed have to be made for the greater good. JL might have potential but is it really great enough for us to remain in a perpetual state of interclan warfare and humiliation?
 

Vacelere

Wisdom-Honor-Might
Niyahow lets be honest here , you want gedo state so we ( mx ) have our own FMS , thats short sighted and pessimistic , why quit jubaland and all of its potential and barwaqo when we can have it all . We wont leave Kismayo behind for dadkale
Good thinking if had power I would also migrate the MX from central somalia and Ethiopia to jubbaland to consolidate power there.

One thing I admire MJ is their all live in one state which give them leverage over other clans
 
I am sick and tired of the nonstop headache that I get when I look at Gedo. Sometimes sacrficed have to be made for the greater good. JL might have potential but is it really great enough for us to remain in a perpetual state of interclan warfare and humiliation?
Gedo state would also have problems , will we split into two then aswell ? Leaving would be a bigger humiliation then anything thats happened . Mighty mx running away from their FMS cause of Madoobe and a few horgals would be ceeb . We had kismaayo on lock before and it will happen again inshallah
 

Somali Saayid

Ninkii dhoof ku yimid beey geeridu dhibeysaa
VIP
Gedo state would also have problems , will we split into two then aswell ? Leaving would be a bigger humiliation then anything thats happened . Mighty mx running away from their FMS cause of Madoobe and a few horgals would be ceeb . We had kismaayo on lock before and it will happen again inshallah
You have to move on from the past, warlord era is behind us. We will take our lands and leave peacefully we are going to build Gedo into a proper FMS that can compete with our peers and finally bring peace and development. The days of Kismayo this and that are over. It's everybody and their tuulo. Kismayo is a city that will always be in our but it's not anywhere close to Sade homeland.

It's not like we are not represented there either, I believe the deputy district commissioner is facaye. Our little brothers also live there and in some villages around Kismayo district.
 
Good thinking if had power I would also migrate the MX from central somalia and Ethiopia to jubbaland to consolidate power there.
100% , galmudug is a barren desert with little to no benefits , we need a great migration out of that hellhole and into the green fields of konfuur
 
You have to move on from the past, warlord era is behind us.
Im not advocating for another hiraale , im saying mx should not lose hope in jubaland because of terrorist warlord from qabri dahar
We will take our lands and leave peacefully we are going to build Gedo into a proper FMS that can compete with our peers and finally bring peace and development.
What was stopping us from doing that for the past 30 years sksk , poor leadership will still be a problem , minimising our land and power wont change that
It's not like we are not represented there either, I believe the deputy district commissioner is facaye.
Fiiri waxad leedahay , representation and deputy district commissioner ? Leave that DEI shi to the madhibaan , mx gonna rule all 3 gobols inshallah
 

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