Tigray Region is Ethiopia's Somaliland now

[AbdiGeedi]

Was just mentioning that the other day, what do you reckon happens to them after they secede? (assuming they do)

The best way for the TPLF is to make the process of secession as bloody as possible and invite international mediation, presenting themselves as the victims of the central government's slaughter. This way they can fast-track the recognition. These motherfuckers are crafty.

The best way for Addis Ababa is not to over-react and slowly destabilize Tigray from within creating unpleasant facts on the ground about Tigray in the eyes of the International Community. And then Ethiopian federal government can swoop in and restore the order, thus, ending Tigray's independence. If Addis Ababa is smart they will start destabilization covert operations in Tigray now. This might be already happening since Amharas pulling the strings in Addis Ababa. Amharas are as crafty as Tigrayans.

Only Habashi can upend another Habashi in Ethiopia. Oromos and Somalis are the dreaded sideshow that needs to be played in order to maintain the facade of one Ethiopia.

 

[FarxanFarax223]

The best way for the TPLF is to make the process of secession as bloody as possible and invite international mediation, presenting themselves as the victims of the central government's slaughter. This way they can fast-track the recognition. These motherfuckers are crafty.

The best way for Addis Ababa is not to over-react and slowly destabilize Tigray from within creating unpleasant facts about Tigray in the eyes of the International Community. And then Ethiopian federal government can swoop in and restore the order, thus, ending Tigray's independence. If Addis Ababa is smart they will start destabilization covert operations in Tigray now. This might be already happening since Amharas pulling the strings in Addis Ababa. Amharas are as crafty as Tigrayans.

Only Habashi can upend another Habashi in Ethiopia. Oromos and Somalis are the dreaded sideshow that needs to be played in order to maintain the facade of one Ethiopia.

They do have a higher birth rate though so at some point they surely MUST take control?

 

[xabashi]

I am not buying it. Eritrea is not happy with Ethiopia at the moment. The visit to Asmara by Abiy was a begging event after Afwerki was in Cairo on a two day visit and Egyptian moves in Somaliland. It is not Tigray that is shivering but Addis Ababa. Even a blind donkey can see that Eritrea benefits more from Tigray being split from Ethiopia.

Here is what the Eritrean government said 9 days ago:

The Eritrean Ministry of Information said July 11 that the peace agreement with Ethiopia had not met Eritrea’s expectations. The ministry added in a statement on its website, “Two years after the signing of the Peace Agreement, Ethiopian troops continue to be present in our sovereign territories. … Trade and economic ties of both countries have not resumed to the desired extent or scale.”

Eritrea weighs role in Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over Nile dam

Eritrea’s president visited Cairo against the backdrop of the faltering talks on the Nile dam dispute, raising questions about Eritrea’s role in helping reach an agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.

www.al-monitor.com

You are hopelessly lost like the clueless arab medias you read. Please ask any eritrean if you don’t believe me. They confirm what I’m saying. All what you talk about Eritrea being not happy with current Ethiopia and Abiy is begging Eritrea etc are complete bull crap but you can believe them if that make you feel good.

 

[xabashi]

The best way for the TPLF is to make the process of secession as bloody as possible and invite international mediation, presenting themselves as the victims of the central government's slaughter. This way they can fast-track the recognition. These motherfuckers are crafty.

The best way for Addis Ababa is not to over-react and slowly destabilize Tigray from within creating unpleasant facts on the ground about Tigray in the eyes of the International Community. And then Ethiopian federal government can swoop in and restore the order, thus, ending Tigray's independence. If Addis Ababa is smart they will start destabilization covert operations in Tigray now. This might be already happening since Amharas pulling the strings in Addis Ababa. Amharas are as crafty as Tigrayans.

Only Habashi can upend another Habashi in Ethiopia. Oromos and Somalis are the dreaded sideshow that needs to be played in order to maintain the facade of one Ethiopia.

What the heck are you talking about? When did TPLF asked to become independent and when did the fed refused? Are you talking about some movie or something? Tbh if Tigray becomes independent tomorrow it will have like zero effect on the rest of Ethiopia. No bloodshed is needed for that. They can go but I don’t think that will be easy in Tigray. It will split the society in the middle since the overwhelming majority thinks they are not only ethiopians but the founders of ethiopia.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

You are hopelessly lost like the clueless arab medias you read. Please ask any eritrean if you don’t believe me. They confirm what I’m saying. All what you talk about Eritrea being not happy with current Ethiopia and Abiy is begging Eritrea etc are complete bull crap but you can believe them if that make you feel good.

I believe the Eritrean government more than a random Amhara on internet.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

What the heck are you talking about? When did TPLF asked to become independent and when did the fed refused? Are you talking about some movie or something? Tbh if Tigray becomes independent tomorrow it will have like zero effect on the rest of Ethiopia. No bloodshed is needed for that. They can go but I don’t think that will be easy in Tigray. It will split the society in the middle since the overwhelming majority thinks they are not only ethiopians but the founders of ethiopia.

You seem to be as emotional as our tribal keyboard warriors here who live in the West and enjoy freedoms but want deprive others of it based on heritage and race in Somalia.

That was my reply to the hypothetical question asked by this guy:

Was just mentioning that the other day, what do you reckon happens to them after they secede? (assuming they do)

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Reposting @Ayubi 's provided link in another thread for a good measure:

 

[Octavian]

What the heck are you talking about? When did TPLF asked to become independent and when did the fed refused? Are you talking about some movie or something? Tbh if Tigray becomes independent tomorrow it will have like zero effect on the rest of Ethiopia. No bloodshed is needed for that. They can go but I don’t think that will be easy in Tigray. It will split the society in the middle since the overwhelming majority thinks they are not only ethiopians but the founders of ethiopia.

why wouldn't there be any bloodsheed

 

[AbdiGeedi]

We are in the second half of August and tensions between Addis Ababa and Tigray Region have not subsided.

Tigrayans are set to have elections September 17th. Abiy ruled out military intervention or federal budget cuts to the region. It looks like the TPLF will get its wishes for political autonomy within Ethiopia.

Addis Ababa is now blaming the TPLF for killing the Oromo singer that sparked inter-communal violence.

There is also fear in Addis Ababa that Tigray Region will eventually secede.

Obviously Ethiopia is getting a taste of its own medicine after it supported Somalia's split with its project of the Biixi regime.

Ethiopia - Political Tensions Rise Ahead of Planned Regional Elections

Ethiopia's northernmost region of Tigray should scrap plans to hold elections next month, as they may posion relations with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, the International Crisis Group has warned.

allafrica.com

 

[xabashi]

We are in the second half of August and tensions between Addis Ababa and Tigray Region have not subsided.

Tigrayans are set to have elections September 17th. Abiy ruled out military intervention or federal budget cuts to the region. It looks like the TPLF will get its wishes for political autonomy within Ethiopia.

Addis Ababa is now blaming the TPLF for killing the Oromo singer that sparked inter-communal violence.

View attachment 138385

There is also fear in Addis Ababa that Tigray Region will eventually secede.

View attachment 138387

Obviously Ethiopia is getting a taste of its own medicine after it supported Somalia's split with its project of the Biixi regime.

View attachment 138388

Ethiopia - Political Tensions Rise Ahead of Planned Regional Elections

Ethiopia's northernmost region of Tigray should scrap plans to hold elections next month, as they may posion relations with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, the International Crisis Group has warned.

allafrica.com

There is no fear in Addis Ababa if Tigray secedes. Where do you get this information? The article said Tigray may secede but never said that there is a fear in Addis Ababa. To think Tigray will actually go with secession shows only how someone has no clue about the internal politics of Ethiopia and Tigray. TPLF could have done that when it was in power for 27 years. Ask yourself why it didn't try to secede while it could have done it in a matter of days? It had all the power. And even now, no Ethiopian will block Tigray secession but TPLF never tried that path knowing very well the consequences. So forget the idea of Tigray secession, it is not more than a PR stunt and gymnastics. Instead let's talk about something realistic.

But one thing I agree with is that there will be a confrontation of some sort between the radical wing of the TPLF and the federal government in the near future. That is for sure. We know the fed is working closely with the moderates in the TPLF including the president of Tigray. It will not be long before the moderates will collaborate with the fed and hand over the radicals and make peace with the fed. That is the most likely outcome if all my observation is correct.