Thoughts on the Ethiopia's port deal

[mohammdov]

Wallahi not to be rude but I only see this awdal unionist thing online. Half my family is Samaroon yet the only guy I’ve ever heard unionist talk from was Nimcaan Hilaac? Where are all of you hiding


@mohammdov am I bring retarded or have you not noticed it either?

Yeah I have two friends who are full Samroon I did not see them supporting this awdal state
My father's grandmother is Samroon, and we know their family. I believe when some of them go to the West and meet Hawidaar they are affected by them

 

[Yami]

You in Mogadishu have one minister and he is not importance. We are separatists and we have more important positions there. What do you want from them No one there knows you or appreciates you

Brother had this in storage waiting to pull out

 

[Arkan]

Wallahi not to be rude but I only see this awdal unionist thing online. Half my family is Samaroon yet the only guy I’ve ever heard unionist talk from was Nimcaan Hilaac? Where are all of you hiding

Look at the facts. Roughly 40% get their registration cards to vote in 'Somaliland elections'. Even less actually vote when it comes to polling day. 60%+ don't even care.

 

[Arkan]

You in Mogadishu have one minister and he is not importance. We are separatists and we have more important positions there. What do you want from them No one there knows you or appreciates you

Who cares about ministers? We will adamantly push to govern our own affairs. That's the priority.

 

[Arkan]

Brother had this in storage waiting to pull out

Those are mainly Isaaqs brought from Maroodi Jeex. This has been verified with footage of buses flocking into Borama. This happens whenever there's propaganda being pushed at our expense.

 

[RiceMuncher]

Yeah I have two friends who are full Samroon I did not see them supporting this awdal state
My father's grandmother is Samroon, and we know their family. I believe when some of them go to the West and meet Hawidaar they are affected by them

Now tell me what does that mean?

 

[mohammdov]

Who cares about ministers? We will adamantly push to govern our own affairs. That's the priority.

We all want to manage our own affairs and change cigaal dastuur But war will be the last solution. We do not want a torrent of blood. This is what shria orders you to do

 

[mohammdov]

Now tell me what does that mean?

It is a new name used after the MoU it means hawiye and daarood Because they allied for the first time

 

[RiceMuncher]

It is a new name used after the MoU it means hawiye and daarood Because they allied for the first time

That's so childish it's actually funny

 

[Arkan]

We all want to manage our own affairs and change cigaal dastuur But war will be the last solution. We do not want a torrent of blood. This is what shria orders you to do

The other day you were talking about your clan leaving Somaliland and all of sudden you're talking about changing the constitution. Did the recent Ila meerayso between the Guurti and Gudoomiyaha Barlamaanka fool you?

And who is "we"? Wasn't your clan celebrating the spilling of blood in Sool? While your Culumo kept their mouths shut? Your clan wasn't so concerned about the Sharia then but why are you peddling this narrative that you are?

 

[mohammdov]

The other day you were talking about your clan leaving Somaliland and all of sudden you're talking about changing the constitution. Did the recent Ila meerayso between the Guurti and Gudoomiyaha Barlamaanka fool you?

And who is "we"? Wasn't your clan celebrating the spilling of blood in Sool? While your Culumo kept their mouths shut? Your clan wasn't so concerned about the Sharia then but why are you peddling this narrative that you are?

This will happen if the elections do not happen on time It will be the last option
We are wary of those in the East and those with us in the West
there is gudiga GX and culumo and suldaan are in it And you know what their position was

 

[Arkan]

This will happen if the elections do not happen on time It will be the last option
We are wary of those in the East and those with us in the West
there is gudiga GX and culumo and suldaan are in it And you know what their position was View attachment 313700

Are you speaking to me as an Isaaq or Garxajis? At first you addressed me as the former. You're conveniently switching.

 

[mohammdov]

Are you speaking to me as an Isaaq or Garxajis? At first you addressed me as the former. You're conveniently switching.

We are both

 

[Hared]

You know what's funny, somaliland's recognition will come by default because soon they will be no country called somalia, they will be what will be termed as the islamic emirate of somalia an unrecognised state in present day italia somalia. By probably the end of the year and what will spark the realisation of this state will be ethiopia's unilateral recognition of somaliland. This will force somalia to severe diplomatic ties with ethiopia and demand exit of their troops. Ethiopia will comply and as they are the bulk of foreign troops the other amisom troops will follow suit they will just accelerate the already ongoing withdrawal. And then stage shall be set for the sweeping to power of the islamist movements. All according to script and don't give me America won't allow this, they already did so in a far more important region than your shithole of a country Afghanistan a country whose importance necessitated the presence of their own western troops not subcontracted to other African shithole countries.

 

[Waware]

You know what's funny, somaliland's recognition will come by default because soon they will be no country called somalia, they will be what will be termed as the islamic emirate of somalia an unrecognised state in present day italia somalia. By probably the end of the year and what will spark the realisation of this state will be ethiopia's unilateral recognition of somaliland. This will force somalia to severe diplomatic ties with ethiopia and demand exit of their troops. Ethiopia will comply and as they are the bulk of foreign troops the other amisom troops will follow suit they will just accelerate the already ongoing withdrawal. And then stage shall be set for the sweeping to power of the islamist movements. All according to script and don't give me America won't allow this, they already did so in a far more important region than your shithole of a country Afghanistan a country whose importance necessitated the presence of their own western troops not subcontracted to other African shithole countries.

Don't forget to take your pills

 

[RiceMuncher]

Don't forget to take your pills

He thinks Somalia is Afghanistan where the Taliban are from the majority clan. We already had clans who pushed AS out of their territory with no outside help. Something the minority Afghans could never.

 

[Celery]

At first I was a bit doubtful but as each day goes by it seems like they are serious. Ethiopia has spent it's some of it's reputation just by announcing it and each day that goes by and it doesn't retract it spends a little more.

Ethiopia wants to diversify and expand port access. Right now it only has Djibouti but that's too vulnerable to being choked off by rebel groups and its expensive so it needs another port which means increasing use of Berbera and building another port in the future in Somaliland so it makes sense for them to pursue this action. I'm guessing the UAE is going to fund it and they also will fund an Ethiopian Navy to protect the shipping lanes and all their DP world ports in the area which is why Abiy Ahmed is keen to build a navy. The UAE is a big supporter of his, they flew in arms to protect his regime when the rebels were marching on Addis. He needs to return the favour and it's also good politics to distract from economic problems and the rebellions going on in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as part of the deal and take a lot of condemnation for it but I'm not sure what sanctions they are going to face. Has there ever been a case of a country recognizing a breakaway region and building a base with the approval of the breakaway government, which itself is a recognized regional governemnt? At the same time the other country is also providing troops that is propping up the main government. Ethiopia is obviously taking advantage of a fractured country. Them recognizing Somaliland after the fact doesn't change the absurdity of the situation.

It just shows that Somalis needs to face reality of what is really going on in the country and come to some kind of agreement. The federal governemnt for it's own legitmacy has resorted to claiming Somaliland as a federal state despite having no power over it and Somaliland wanting nothing to do with it which mean's it's effectively cosigning what Somaliland does even when it goes against it's interest.

What can Somalia do about it?

Here I think HSM's hands are really tied. He's preparing for the post-ATMIS world and he already has deals with Ethiopia that will see their troops staying for a longer period. He needs those troops to hold major cities that's why Ethiopia feels emboldened to take this step. The chances of Somalia going to war is practically zero. He will make a show of things, denounce them but he won't direct any kind of action.

This is why he's trying to apply diplomatic pressure. Many countries have voiced their support for the territorial integrity of Somalia which is damaging Ethiopia's international reputation but for a country that said they are willing to go to war for a port it's probably a cost they are willing to pay.

Will any country intervene to stop the port. I don't think any country sees the port as an existential issue for them. Egypt doesn't want to see an Ethiopian Navy I'm sure but are they going to war to stop it? I don't know.

What will happen to Somaliland?

If Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland it will appear to the rest of the world as a grubby deal. I don't think other countries are going to rush in and recognize Somaliland, they will wait for the dust to clear and see what happens and only if there's a direct interest in it for them. The UAE will want to keep their hand hidden so they won't recognize Somaliland either at least for the foreseeable future. This whole thing is essentially telling us that Ethiopia and the UAE expect the situation in south will deteriorate post-ATMIS - they don't expect the Federal Government to ever gain enough strength to challenge them militarily and probably be in too much trouble to challenge them diplomatically too.

Somaliland at this point will become more militlarized. It will use force in areas where it is not accepted and with Ethiopian support it has a chance of succeeding in that pursuit but I think it will keep it's acitivites to areas it sees as vital like the lands around the potential Ethiopian base and the supporting infrastructure and nearby population centres.

If the deal doesn't go through then Somaliland will have spent it's remaining legitmacy on a failed project.

Essentially Somalilands success hinges on it being the only show in town and that rests on Federal Government's success or failure in 2025. If the federal government looks like it can win territory, hold and build - communities will fight harder against the Somaliland project. If it starts to take big losses then they will be resigned to it.

Good analysis

Its pointless. Even if Ethiopia recognizes you guys, you need a seat at the UN to gain legitimacy as a country. And THIS is very important because it prevents FGS from steamrolling you guys in the future because as far as the international community is concerned, Somaliland is legally apart of Somalia.

The AU and UN would never risk giving SL recognition because it would set a dangerous precendence for other African secessionist groups to want recognition as well, and really why would they? Because Ethiopia, an extremely poor and politically weak country did it? If South Ossetia and Abkahzia couldn't get recognition despite being supported by Russia then SL has no chance in hell to have it either. You will always be a federal state.

More importantly it will embolden other independence movements in more important countries. This is why it hasn’t happened.

 

[Celery]

Eritrea and South Sudan got independence. Only reason SL hasn’t is because FGS is in zero position to grand sovereignty to it. Doesn’t get any deeper then that

Millions of people died in genocides and massacres in Eritrea and what became South Sudan. That’s why the international community allowed it. In fact that’s the only time they allow states to be created. The countries that arose from the ashes of Yugoslavia exist because different ethnicities decided to massacre each other.

These clanist morons have been milking a 1980s “ethnic cleansing” in Hargeisa as the excuse for wanting their own country. It’s not happening and they need to accept it.

 

[johnsepei5]

Millions of people died in genocides and massacres in Eritrea and what became South Sudan. That’s why the international community allowed it. In fact that’s the only time they allow states to be created. The countries that arose from the ashes of Yugoslavia exist because different ethnicities decided to massacre each other.

These clanist morons have been milking a 1980s “ethnic cleansing” in Hargeisa as the excuse for wanting their own country. It’s not happening and they need to accept it.

You forgot to add the
World isn’t buying it, somaliland has zero reasons to pursue seccesion in 2024

 

[Celery]

You forgot to add the
World isn’t buying it, somaliland has zero reasons to pursue seccesion in 2024

Exactly. It has the worst possible reason to secede: muh clan. Another thing they’ll completely hate: the world community wouldn’t mind if the Somali government went in there and imposed its authority. No one would call for a deescalation or a ceasefire since a country would be carrying out state functions.