At first I was a bit doubtful but as each day goes by it seems like they are serious. Ethiopia has spent it's some of it's reputation just by announcing it and each day that goes by and it doesn't retract it spends a little more.
Ethiopia wants to diversify and expand port access. Right now it only has Djibouti but that's too vulnerable to being choked off by rebel groups and its expensive so it needs another port which means increasing use of Berbera and building another port in the future in Somaliland so it makes sense for them to pursue this action. I'm guessing the UAE is going to fund it and they also will fund an Ethiopian Navy to protect the shipping lanes and all their DP world ports in the area which is why Abiy Ahmed is keen to build a navy. The UAE is a big supporter of his, they flew in arms to protect his regime when the rebels were marching on Addis. He needs to return the favour and it's also good politics to distract from economic problems and the rebellions going on in Ethiopia.
Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as part of the deal and take a lot of condemnation for it but I'm not sure what sanctions they are going to face. Has there ever been a case of a country recognizing a breakaway region and building a base with the approval of the breakaway government, which itself is a recognized regional governemnt? At the same time the other country is also providing troops that is propping up the main government. Ethiopia is obviously taking advantage of a fractured country. Them recognizing Somaliland after the fact doesn't change the absurdity of the situation.
It just shows that Somalis needs to face reality of what is really going on in the country and come to some kind of agreement. The federal governemnt for it's own legitmacy has resorted to claiming Somaliland as a federal state despite having no power over it and Somaliland wanting nothing to do with it which mean's it's effectively cosigning what Somaliland does even when it goes against it's interest.
What can Somalia do about it?
Here I think HSM's hands are really tied. He's preparing for the post-ATMIS world and he already has deals with Ethiopia that will see their troops staying for a longer period. He needs those troops to hold major cities that's why Ethiopia feels emboldened to take this step. The chances of Somalia going to war is practically zero. He will make a show of things, denounce them but he won't direct any kind of action.
This is why he's trying to apply diplomatic pressure. Many countries have voiced their support for the territorial integrity of Somalia which is damaging Ethiopia's international reputation but for a country that said they are willing to go to war for a port it's probably a cost they are willing to pay.
Will any country intervene to stop the port. I don't think any country sees the port as an existential issue for them. Egypt doesn't want to see an Ethiopian Navy I'm sure but are they going to war to stop it? I don't know.
What will happen to Somaliland?
If Ethiopia recognizes Somaliland it will appear to the rest of the world as a grubby deal. I don't think other countries are going to rush in and recognize Somaliland, they will wait for the dust to clear and see what happens and only if there's a direct interest in it for them. The UAE will want to keep their hand hidden so they won't recognize Somaliland either at least for the foreseeable future. This whole thing is essentially telling us that Ethiopia and the UAE expect the situation in south will deteriorate post-ATMIS - they don't expect the Federal Government to ever gain enough strength to challenge them militarily and probably be in too much trouble to challenge them diplomatically too.
Somaliland at this point will become more militlarized. It will use force in areas where it is not accepted and with Ethiopian support it has a chance of succeeding in that pursuit but I think it will keep it's acitivites to areas it sees as vital like the lands around the potential Ethiopian base and the supporting infrastructure and nearby population centres.
If the deal doesn't go through then Somaliland will have spent it's remaining legitmacy on a failed project.
Essentially Somalilands success hinges on it being the only show in town and that rests on Federal Government's success or failure in 2025. If the federal government looks like it can win territory, hold and build - communities will fight harder against the Somaliland project. If it starts to take big losses then they will be resigned to it.
