"The way forward for Egypt is not to try and stop the unstoppable.”— Former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi

[xabashi]

 

[xabashi]

The site for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam was identified by the United States Bureau of Reclamation in the course of the Blue Nile survey, which was conducted between 1956 and 1964 during the administration of Aklilu Habtewold under Emperor Haile Selassie I.

From Haile Selassie to PM Abiy Ahmed, all Ethiopians stand with the dam!

 

[BobSmoke]

He kept it G without losing a bit of composure

 

[Caaro]

I wonder how this will go down. Egypt is adamant on being the lord and keeper of the nile river and Ethiopia isn’t backing down from building the dam.

Logically speaking Ethiopia should be allowed to do whatever they want in their land, but I don’t know if that applies to transnational resources like a river.

I wonder what Egypt would do if it’s unable to get what it wants through diplomacy. Will they be forced to make an ultimatum?

 

[AbdiGeedi]

I wonder what Egypt would do if it’s unable to get what it wants through diplomacy. Will they be forced to make an ultimatum?

Realistically speaking Egypt doesn't have much leverage on the issue. It doesn't even border Ethiopia.

Egypt might restrict or block Ethiopia from using the Suez canal. That's about it.

Egyptian plea to the UN Security Council to intervene can be views as its weakness or as the last attempt to resolve the issue peacefully before Egypt resorts to the unilateral military action. It will require quite a sizeable and multi-stage attack to damage the dam to the core. I doubt the Russian air defense system (S-300?) that is activated around the dam will be effective unless it is comnined with advanced electronic jamming systems. Those are hard to come by. Very few countries have them and usually they are not allowed for exports. I doubt broke ass Ethiopia has such system in its arsenal. Imagine jet fighters or long range missiles approaching the dam and all of a sudden going blind.

Habesha will eventually recover from the loss and rebuild the dam again. It will be costly and time consuming but worth the trouble.

It will be a lose-lose situation for both countries.

I am not rooting for either side just trying to be pragmatic.

 

[abdullah233]

Realistically speaking Egypt doesn't have much leverage on the issue. It doesn't even border Ethiopia.

Egypt might restrict or block Ethiopia from using the Suez canal. That's about it.

Egyptian plea to the UN Security Council to intervene can be views as its weakness or as the last attempt to resolve the issue peacefully before Egypt resorts to the unilateral military action. It will require quite a sizeable and multi-stage attack to damage the dam to the core. I doubt the Russian air defense system (S-300?) that is activated around the dam will be effective unless used in conjunction with advanced electronic jamming systems. Those are hard to come by. Very few countries have them and usually they are not allowed for exports. Imagine jet fighters or long range missiles approaching the dam and all of a sudden going blind.

Habesha will eventually recover from the loss and rebuild the dam again. It will be costly and time consuming but worth the trouble.

It will be a lose-lose situation for both countries.

I am not rooting for either side just trying to be pragmatic.

Ngl Egypt low key could get garac by Ethiopia and in lybia but still itobbya ha burburto

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Ngl Egypt low key could get garac by Ethiopia and in lybia but still itobbya ha burburto

I am not sure it Eqypt has such capability, but the military operation must be short, heavily damaging and done with surgical precision as to hit only the dam and not cause excessive collateral loss of lives and property among civilians. The International Community won't tolerate any other way.

The moment Ethiopia starts filling the dam, the potential collateral damage will go up on a daily basis.

If the conflict evolves into war, it will quickly turn into logistical nightmare for both. Because they don't border each other.

In reality neither side can afford going into full scale war. Their economies do not warrant it. For example, Egypt had to stop its LNG gas exports four months ago due to the price collapse. Financial loss is quite sizeable. They can't even handle COVID-19 outbreak on their own and awaiting the IMF money assistance.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

LOL

Egypt bans media coverage on Ethiopian hydropower dam - Journal du Cameroun

Egypt’s Council for Media Regulation has announced a ban on media coverage of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).“From now on, outlets and social media users are restricted from covering or discussing Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam,” the Middle East Eye quoted the Council as saying on Friday...

www.journalducameroun.com

Egypt’s Council for Media Regulation has announced a ban on media coverage of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).“From now on, outlets and social media users are restricted from covering or discussing Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam,” the Middle East Eye quoted the Council as saying on Friday .

The restriction is also applicable to other “sensitive” issues, such as the coronavirus, the conflicts in Libya and the Sinai Peninsula.

The Council warned that only information issued by official authorities could be reported, and legal measures would be taken against violators.

The Council further indicated that “the country is going through a dangerous and sensitive period.”

Ethiopia’s Ministry of Water recently said the most prominent technical disparities between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan over the GERD were resolved.

Beyond ensuring the optimal operation of the GERD, the negotiation requires prudence to safeguard the permanent right of Ethiopia over the Blue Nile, the ministry said.

However, Ethiopia is of the conviction that the three countries can conclude the negotiation on the guidelines and rules with an outcome that maximizes the benefit of the countries, it added.