*Mods, please don't merge this thread. It's not actually about Ethiopia's civil war.
I know this guy has his biases, but I think he's right on this.
We've been hearing about a large number of soldiers being trained in Eritrea from a multitude of sources for more than a year, so that part is no surprise.
Over the last few years, Abiy, Farmajo, and Afwerki have held many private meetings without releasing any information to the public. It's becoming increasingly likely that they were discussing merging Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
The main barrier to Horn of Africa integration are the powerful federal states in Somalia and Ethiopia. Afwerki has tight control over all of Eritrea thanks to centralization. With Ethiopia's neutered form of federalism, Abiy controls all of Ethiopia except for Tigray. In Somalia, Farmajo has personally installed the presidents of South West State (using Ethiopian soldiers), Galnus, and Hirshabelle and controls all of them. He did try to bring Jubaland under his control, but was too weak to succeed. So far attempts on Puntland and Somaliland have been limited to sabotages and harassment.
If Abiy defeats the TPLF, Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland will be the only things standing in the way of a single integrated Horn of Africa state. However, Farmajo will never be able to defeat even one of these armies on his own, let alone all three. The only way to supplant them is with Ethiopian and Eritrean support.
With Eritrean soldiers currently fighting alongside Ethiopian troops to subjugate Tigray and with Farmajo having already demonstrated a willingness to use Ethiopian soldiers to kill Somali civilians, the precedents to Ethiopia/Eritrea going to war with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland at Farmajo's request are already there. This would lead to a devastating war the likes of which has not been seen since the 90s.
A key part of their plan is the belief that Farmajo will be reelected. If he is replaced by someone with a different philosophy, their entire plan will be in shambles.
Regardless of the outcome in the election, I smell war in the air. The Horn of Africa and Somalia especially are entering a turbulent period. Puntland and Jubaland must bolster their forces, stock up on weapons, and form emergency plans exactly like the TPLF did in Tigray region. When the savage hordes descend on us, we must be ready.
I know this guy has his biases, but I think he's right on this.
We've been hearing about a large number of soldiers being trained in Eritrea from a multitude of sources for more than a year, so that part is no surprise.
Over the last few years, Abiy, Farmajo, and Afwerki have held many private meetings without releasing any information to the public. It's becoming increasingly likely that they were discussing merging Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
The main barrier to Horn of Africa integration are the powerful federal states in Somalia and Ethiopia. Afwerki has tight control over all of Eritrea thanks to centralization. With Ethiopia's neutered form of federalism, Abiy controls all of Ethiopia except for Tigray. In Somalia, Farmajo has personally installed the presidents of South West State (using Ethiopian soldiers), Galnus, and Hirshabelle and controls all of them. He did try to bring Jubaland under his control, but was too weak to succeed. So far attempts on Puntland and Somaliland have been limited to sabotages and harassment.
If Abiy defeats the TPLF, Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland will be the only things standing in the way of a single integrated Horn of Africa state. However, Farmajo will never be able to defeat even one of these armies on his own, let alone all three. The only way to supplant them is with Ethiopian and Eritrean support.
With Eritrean soldiers currently fighting alongside Ethiopian troops to subjugate Tigray and with Farmajo having already demonstrated a willingness to use Ethiopian soldiers to kill Somali civilians, the precedents to Ethiopia/Eritrea going to war with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland at Farmajo's request are already there. This would lead to a devastating war the likes of which has not been seen since the 90s.
A key part of their plan is the belief that Farmajo will be reelected. If he is replaced by someone with a different philosophy, their entire plan will be in shambles.
Regardless of the outcome in the election, I smell war in the air. The Horn of Africa and Somalia especially are entering a turbulent period. Puntland and Jubaland must bolster their forces, stock up on weapons, and form emergency plans exactly like the TPLF did in Tigray region. When the savage hordes descend on us, we must be ready.