Current Affairs The war in Tigray shows how Abiy and Afwerki pose an existential threat to Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland

Crow

Make Hobyo Great Again
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*Mods, please don't merge this thread. It's not actually about Ethiopia's civil war.

I know this guy has his biases, but I think he's right on this.
We've been hearing about a large number of soldiers being trained in Eritrea from a multitude of sources for more than a year, so that part is no surprise.

Over the last few years, Abiy, Farmajo, and Afwerki have held many private meetings without releasing any information to the public. It's becoming increasingly likely that they were discussing merging Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.

The main barrier to Horn of Africa integration are the powerful federal states in Somalia and Ethiopia. Afwerki has tight control over all of Eritrea thanks to centralization. With Ethiopia's neutered form of federalism, Abiy controls all of Ethiopia except for Tigray. In Somalia, Farmajo has personally installed the presidents of South West State (using Ethiopian soldiers), Galnus, and Hirshabelle and controls all of them. He did try to bring Jubaland under his control, but was too weak to succeed. So far attempts on Puntland and Somaliland have been limited to sabotages and harassment.

If Abiy defeats the TPLF, Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland will be the only things standing in the way of a single integrated Horn of Africa state. However, Farmajo will never be able to defeat even one of these armies on his own, let alone all three. The only way to supplant them is with Ethiopian and Eritrean support.

With Eritrean soldiers currently fighting alongside Ethiopian troops to subjugate Tigray and with Farmajo having already demonstrated a willingness to use Ethiopian soldiers to kill Somali civilians, the precedents to Ethiopia/Eritrea going to war with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland at Farmajo's request are already there. This would lead to a devastating war the likes of which has not been seen since the 90s.

A key part of their plan is the belief that Farmajo will be reelected. If he is replaced by someone with a different philosophy, their entire plan will be in shambles.

Regardless of the outcome in the election, I smell war in the air. The Horn of Africa and Somalia especially are entering a turbulent period. Puntland and Jubaland must bolster their forces, stock up on weapons, and form emergency plans exactly like the TPLF did in Tigray region. When the savage hordes descend on us, we must be ready.
 
*Mods, please don't merge this thread. It's not actually about Ethiopia's civil war.

I know this guy has his biases, but I think he's right on this.
We've been hearing about a large number of soldiers being trained in Eritrea from a multitude of sources for more than a year, so that part is no surprise.

Over the last few years, Abiy, Farmajo, and Afwerki have held many private meetings without releasing any information to the public. It's becoming increasingly likely that they were discussing merging Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti.

The main barrier to Horn of Africa integration are the powerful federal states in Somalia and Ethiopia. Afwerki has tight control over all of Eritrea thanks to centralization. With Ethiopia's neutered form of federalism, Abiy controls all of Ethiopia except for Tigray. In Somalia, Farmajo has personally installed the presidents of South West State (using Ethiopian soldiers), Galnus, and Hirshabelle and controls all of them. He did try to bring Jubaland under his control, but was too weak to succeed. So far attempts on Puntland and Somaliland have been limited to sabotages and harassment.

If Abiy defeats the TPLF, Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland will be the only things standing in the way of a single integrated Horn of Africa state. However, Farmajo will never be able to defeat even one of these armies on his own, let alone all three. The only way to supplant them is with Ethiopian and Eritrean support.

With Eritrean soldiers currently fighting alongside Ethiopian troops to subjugate Tigray and with Farmajo having already demonstrated a willingness to use Ethiopian soldiers to kill Somali civilians, the precedents to Ethiopia/Eritrea going to war with Puntland, Jubaland, and Somaliland at Farmajo's request are already there. This would lead to a devastating war the likes of which has not been seen since the 90s.

A key part of their plan is the belief that Farmajo will be reelected. If he is replaced by someone with a different philosophy, their entire plan will be in shambles.

Regardless of the outcome in the election, I smell war in the air. The Horn of Africa and Somalia especially are entering a turbulent period. Puntland and Jubaland must bolster their forces, stock up on weapons, and form emergency plans exactly like the TPLF did in Tigray region. When the savage hordes descend on us, we must be ready.
I’m envious of your creative imagination.
 
I think he's making things up, 10,000 trained troops is a huge number in Somalia. Puntland has never been on Farmajo's radar like that, it's always been Jubbaland.

I hope they switch Madoobe for a tougher guy before it's too late, he's gotten too comfortable in his seat.
 

Crow

Make Hobyo Great Again
VIP
Abiy has admitted his plans to form a Horn of Africa union a few times over the years.

Here he discusses it in Ethiopia's parliament only a few months after his rise to power:

Just a couple of days before that, Farmajo promised him four ports:
This is from Davos in January 2019:

I'm not at all surprised by weak Farmajo going along with it, but Afwerki, who fought decades for Eritrea's independence, is a bit surprising. But equally surprising is Ethiopia and Eritrea both fighting against a common enemy. The only explanation for him going along with all this is if Abiy is his puppet. As leader of the most stable country in the horn, Afwerki would never do anything to weaken his position.
 

Crow

Make Hobyo Great Again
VIP
I think he's making things up, 10,000 trained troops is a huge number in Somalia. Puntland has never been on Farmajo's radar like that, it's always been Jubbaland.

I hope they switch Madoobe for a tougher guy before it's too late, he's gotten too comfortable in his seat.
It's always been Jubaland because they're an easier target and our closest ally. Farmajo definitely wants to destroy Puntland, but as Deni demonstrated during his visit to Mogadishu in September, Puntland is far too politically powerful. That isn't even mentioning Puntland's military capabilities. But make no mistake, as the region that has kept successive FGS administrations in check, Puntland is Farmajo's ultimate goal and obstacle to centralization.

I'm not sure about the number of Eritrean trained soldiers, but it is a thing that is happening even despite sounding like a conspiracy theory.
 
It's always been Jubaland because they're an easier target and our closest ally. Farmajo definitely wants to destroy Puntland, but as Deni demonstrated during his visit to Mogadishu in September, Puntland is far too politically powerful. That isn't even mentioning Puntland's military capabilities. But make no mistake, as the region that has kept successive FGS administrations in check, Puntland is Farmajo's ultimate goal and obstacle to centralization.

I'm not sure about the number of Eritrean trained soldiers, but it is a thing that is happening even despite sounding like a conspiracy theory.
Intresting theory but do you genuinely think farmajo will allow jubaland and puntalnd to be forced into submission by Ethiopia and also can this be the reason why somaliland want to be involved in the elections?
 

Rooble44

Bishop of the order of Gacanta Furan ✋
Intresting theory but do you genuinely think farmajo will allow jubaland and puntalnd to be forced into submission by Ethiopia and also can this be the reason why somaliland want to be involved in the elections?
What elections does Somaliland want to be involved in?
 

0117

Reborn
Honestly reading this thread gave me chills.

You forgot to consider America and Chinese positions are in this matter.We all know now both Djibouti and Ethiopia are already in favor with China through taking part in more cooperation and trade to the point around 60% + of Djiboutis external debt is to China and that America cut off aid to Ethiopia.America might look into establishing new relationship and what partner would be better than one that has established ties with Taiwan under guise of "Democracy"...Somaliland.It'll be an interesting few years ahead.
 
It's always been Jubaland because they're an easier target and our closest ally. Farmajo definitely wants to destroy Puntland, but as Deni demonstrated during his visit to Mogadishu in September, Puntland is far too politically powerful. That isn't even mentioning Puntland's military capabilities. But make no mistake, as the region that has kept successive FGS administrations in check, Puntland is Farmajo's ultimate goal and obstacle to centralization.

I'm not sure about the number of Eritrean trained soldiers, but it is a thing that is happening even despite sounding like a conspiracy theory.
It will be failure
 
Abiy has admitted his plans to form a Horn of Africa union a few times over the years.

Here he discusses it in Ethiopia's parliament only a few months after his rise to power:

Just a couple of days before that, Farmajo promised him four ports:
This is from Davos in January 2019:

I'm not at all surprised by weak Farmajo going along with it, but Afwerki, who fought decades for Eritrea's independence, is a bit surprising. But equally surprising is Ethiopia and Eritrea both fighting against a common enemy. The only explanation for him going along with all this is if Abiy is his puppet. As leader of the most stable country in the horn, Afwerki would never do anything to weaken his position.
One will not win reelection and all three can be charged with crimes if they do try to burn down all the whole region over a power grab
 
That's exactly right. I mean in what other unverse does eritrea and amhara join to fight tigray who helped eritrea get their indepence yesterday? add that to a sitting somali president labelling onlf a terrorist and you see their goal and it's obvious; three dictators, closely coordinating with each other, karbaashing all 'rebel' groups in their respective countries and the other two would help.

They know in the past, msb, and mingistu actively worked to support rebel groups in each other's country to weaken the other, so it seems like these niggas wanna consolidate power and go full dictator mode by doing the opposite of that.
 
That's exactly right. I mean in what other unverse does eritrea and amhara join to fight tigray who helped eritrea get their indepence yesterday? add that to a sitting somali president labelling onlf a terrorist and you see their goal and it's obvious; three dictators, closely coordinating with each other, karbaashing all 'rebel' groups in their respective countries and the other two would help.

They know in the past, msb, and mingistu actively worked to support rebel groups in each other's country to weaken the other, so it seems like these niggas wanna consolidate power and go full dictator mode by doing the opposite of that.
But what would that mean for Somalia or somaliweyn in general, putting somaliland Puntland and jubaland under direct central authority seems like it’s a good thing but at the same time I feel like it isn’t. What does this really mean for Somalia? Is this a step forward or back
 

Rooble44

Bishop of the order of Gacanta Furan ✋
Somalias one the upcoming ones they wanna participate as a federal state
You said Somaliland, do they want to be a federal state as well? Because last time I checked they were about the whole seccessionist idea?
 
You said Somaliland, do they want to be a federal state as well? Because last time I checked they were about the whole seccessionist idea?
Yh I know the fact that their undermining their whole secessionist ideology shows something big is going on behind the scenes
 
Abiy has admitted his plans to form a Horn of Africa union a few times over the years.

Here he discusses it in Ethiopia's parliament only a few months after his rise to power:

Just a couple of days before that, Farmajo promised him four ports:
This is from Davos in January 2019:

I'm not at all surprised by weak Farmajo going along with it, but Afwerki, who fought decades for Eritrea's independence, is a bit surprising. But equally surprising is Ethiopia and Eritrea both fighting against a common enemy. The only explanation for him going along with all this is if Abiy is his puppet. As leader of the most stable country in the horn, Afwerki would never do anything to weaken his position.
wait are u saying that all three countries are working together to undermine their opposition.

also did abiy really say Somalia is going to integrate into Ethiopia? Maybe the translation is wrong lol

How would a United Horn of Africa work , how funny I was on this Eritrean mans twitter and he kept complaining that the end goal of the fighting in Tigray is to create a Marxist africa with no borders
 

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