The Siege Of Mogadishu Has Begun

[reer_ugaas_hussein]

He's exaggerating, but shabaab is planing a major offensive of their own somwhere between late 2026-2027.

yes, it’s said that they want to do a major offensive on the 20th anniversary of the ethiopian invasion, so next year.

 

[repo]

I believe Shabaab will start an offensive when HSM does an extension and they will takeover Mogadishu. Then his tribe the Hawiyes will split, some will flee to Kenya, some to Ethiopia but the business elite will stay since they are already paying taxes to Shabaab. I will laugh so hard at @Jungle and @IKHALIIL and the rest of them. I can't wait.

 

[Abu Hesi]

I believe Shabaab will start an offensive when HSM does an extension and they will takeover Mogadishu. Then his tribe the Hawiyes will split, some will flee to Kenya, some to Ethiopia but the business elite will stay since they are already paying taxes to Shabaab. I will laugh so hard at @Jungle and @IKHALIIL and the rest of them. I can't wait.

@IKHALIIL would just respond with a gif

 

[AbdiBashirJR]

I believe Shabaab will start an offensive when HSM does an extension and they will takeover Mogadishu. Then his tribe the Hawiyes will split, some will flee to Kenya, some to Ethiopia but the business elite will stay since they are already paying taxes to Shabaab. I will laugh so hard at @Jungle and @IKHALIIL and the rest of them. I can't wait.

Just say u support AS at this point

 

[Devilsadvocate]

I really believe alshabab are planning something.

They have been silent in Mogadishu for some time - while making big advances elsewhere.

Also, I believe that the new super expensive restaurant opened near me is staffed by a shabab cell - employees are exclusively Maay and Qaldaan speakers.

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I believe Shabaab will start an offensive when HSM does an extension and they will takeover Mogadishu. Then his tribe the Hawiyes will split, some will flee to Kenya,

Peak delusion.

stay since they are already paying taxes to Shabaab. I will laugh so hard at @Jungle and @IKHALIIL and the rest of them. I can't wait.

I never knew there was sh*baab supporters on this forum.

 

[reer_ugaas_hussein]

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[TheLand]

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How does one not know this?

 

[Afar indhood]

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It's not derogatory at all.

 

[Sigmundd]

When will that day come when the only youtube videos you see of Somalia is "powerhouse" "Somalia economy boom" "Somalia first african nation to win the world cup" until than I'm in coma.

 

[tyrannicalmanager]

When will that day come when the only youtube videos you see of Somalia is "powerhouse" "Somalia economy boom" "Somalia first african nation to win the world cup" until than I'm in coma.

when Somalia has a strong centralised goverment again.

 

[Jungle]

I believe Shabaab will start an offensive when HSM does an extension and they will takeover Mogadishu. Then his tribe the Hawiyes will split, some will flee to Kenya, some to Ethiopia but the business elite will stay since they are already paying taxes to Shabaab. I will laugh so hard at @Jungle and @IKHALIIL and the rest of them. I can't wait.

You're just mad at being against FGS and Muqdisho since you got into politics it's an endless cycle of opposing Muqdisho for reer puntland so much so some of them hope for a terrorist takeover of our great capital. 3 districts make up the entire population of puntland

 

[DR OSMAN]

You're just mad at being against FGS and Muqdisho since you got into politics it's an endless cycle of opposing Muqdisho for reer puntland so much so some of them hope for a terrorist takeover of our great capital. 3 districts make up the entire population of puntland

Oh do U mean if U took all hawiye in Hamar census they cud fill up 3 districts in hamar while the rest is Madow Wayne, SW, banadiri. Yeah makes sense definitely, hawiye is an armed minority surrounded by an un armed majority in Hamar but also every town in between Hamar to g town, infact Hamar to galkacyo is even contested n shared by 100 clans n hawiye is beesha dhexe, waa dad aad uu yar hawiyuhu oo isku qariyo beelaha koonfurta kale is what alot of people say behind closed doors. Ninkani xitaa ma Lugo baxsan Karo ayaa la dhaha between galkacyo n Hamar, his a minority.

Koley if U large U wouldn't need samaale card when facing me

 

[Medeea]

I was recently in Xamar. Fake news for the views. Westiods always had obsession with us. Nothing new.

He's exaggerating, but shabaab is planing a major offensive of their own somwhere between late 2026-2027.

Their major offensive already started. How do I know this? they pulled all their foot soldiers from bakool and eastern gedo and sent them to hiiraan/MS to try to reopen the road to ceel buur. But it’s already stalling and even reversing in some districts. They’re overstretched, low on funds and even less popular than the FGS

AS ≠ Taliban. I’m not too worried about them.

 

[Abdisamad]

You're just mad at being against FGS and Muqdisho since you got into politics it's an endless cycle of opposing Muqdisho for reer puntland so much so some of them hope for a terrorist takeover of our great capital. 3 districts make up the entire population of puntland

I strongly disagree, we do not wish for the shabab terrorists to take over Muqdisho, if muqdisho and the whole of South Somalia falls into shabab hands it's a wrap for the rest of Somalia including SL.. I intentionally chose to overlook your silly fkd insults towards the PL population.

 

[Sigmundd]

I strongly disagree, we do not wish for the shabab terrorists to take over Muqdisho, if muqdisho and the whole of South Somalia falls into shabab hands it's a wrap for the rest of Somalia including SL.. I intentionally chose to overlook your silly fkd insults towards the PL population.

Why do people think there will be a siege soon? is al shabab planning something big?? even American are making video, I'm confusedm

 

[Mohamedamiin120]

Why do people think there will be a siege soon? is al shabab planning something big?? even American are making video, I'm confusedm

Amerikkkans made videos in 2024 that we were one step away from Shabaab taking Muqdisho, that Jubaland and Puntland were going to secede, that Somaliland would get international recognition, and that the SCC-K offensive was only temporary

 

[Abdisamad]

Why do people think there will be a siege soon? is al shabab planning something big?? even American are making video, I'm confusedm

I really don't know, HSM with his bad leadership messed up everything and it seems the international community is fed up with Somalia's lack of progress and never ending financial requirements by the African union.

 

[Afrax]

I was recently in Xamar. Fake news for the views. Westiods always had obsession with us. Nothing new.

Their major offensive already started. How do I know this? they pulled all their foot soldiers from bakool and eastern gedo and sent them to Hiiraan/MS to try to reopen the road to Ceel Buur. But it’s already stalling and even reversing in some districts. They’re overstretched, low on funds and even less popular than the FGS

AS ≠ Taliban. I’m not too worried about them.

Indeed, at this point it is not an ideological struggle like it was in 2009-2013. The problem is the fact that the FGS(to an extension) and the Southern Federal Member States are just horrible at governance. Nonstate actors(Alshabab) are filling the vacuum created by state failure. They are providing security to the farming communities from the pillaging and encroaching nomadic groups. And the FMS either are unable to hold Nomadic herdsmen accountable(SWS,HS) or the FMS was established by the nomadic herdsmen for the nomadic herdsmen a form of settler colonialism really(JL,GM).

Settled communities have always been willing to pay taxes for protection(one of the founding principles of modern political order). But it's impossible to trust institutions facilitating your displacement so they seek protection from non state actors.

The underlying issue is one of governance, simple as that. Will FGS and FMS manage to build functional and inclusive institutions(specially at county and municipality level) that can replace Alshabaab's exploitative one? Hard to say, the FGS is by design a system rive with endemic corruption, full of dishonest actors and instilled operatives. The mission requires a lot of will, money and vision.

 

[TheLand]

Indeed, at this point it is not an ideological struggle like it was in 2009-2013. The problem is the fact that the FGS(to an extension) and the Southern Federal Member States are just horrible at governance. Nonstate actors(Alshabab) are filling the vacuum created by state failure. They are providing security to the farming communities from the pillaging and encroaching nomadic groups. And the FMS either are unable to hold Nomadic herdsmen accountable(SWS,HS) or the FMS was established by the nomadic herdsmen for the nomadic herdsmen a form of settler colonialism really(JL,GM).

Settled communities have always been willing to pay taxes for protection(one of the founding principles of modern political order). But it's impossible to trust institutions facilitating your displacement so they seek protection from non state actors.

The underlying issue is one of governance, simple as that. Will FGS and FMS manage to build functional and inclusive institutions(specially at county and municipality level) that can replace Alshabaab's exploitative one? Hard to say, the FGS is by design a system rive with endemic corruption, full of dishonest actors and instilled operatives. The mission requires a lot of will, money and vision.

Interesting viewpoints. I don’t think it’s an issue of governance, otherwise it would likely have been figured out by now. It’s something deeper than that I fear. You hinted at it yourself with the talk of establishment of these FMS and nomads/settled communities.

 

[repo]

Why do people think there will be a siege soon? is al shabab planning something big?? even American are making video, I'm confusedm