Problem. History in no way is as predictable as these books and theories make it out to be. We've seen this rhetoric before, hard time make strong men bullshit but it's just a easy cope to justify the large scale of cause and affect.
The ICU isn't coming back. Those that the FGS has deals with won't allow the rise for a ICU. The possibility of a military strong man taking power is still there though but he'd be in line with certain spheres of power. Sound familiar? Barre regime was just that.
Somalia has infinite roads, it could become a social democracy or a rampant capitalistic state. Each are viable outcomes determined by the leadership and the continued development of society.
Also people really need to stop with the Sun Tzu/Machiavelli. While both a great books their content translates mildly into our globalist post-modern world.