The only hope for Somalia's unity

[AbdiGeedi]

I came to a conclusion that the only way Somalia and Somaliland can become one again is if Somalia gets serious investments and undergoes economic development.

Somalia needs to concentrate on itself first and lead by example before trying to unite de facto. Right now the talks look like a poor attempt by a rich guy (the IC) to marry two street beggars.

 

[AarHawd_7]

Just let Somaliland go mate, we don’t want you and never will. When will you understand?

 

[repo]

You are right. Farmajo's team tried to start this early on it was a project called Fursad Fund which was supposed to create jobs in Somaliland. It was shut down immediately because they knew that it would change the heart of the unemployed population.

 

[reer]

Just let Somaliland go mate, we don’t want you and never will. When will you understand?

we ain't letting somaliland go

 

[AarHawd_7]

we ain't letting somaliland go

Thats 100% fine, as long as I see no blue flags and blue tracksuits in the Afro-Hashemite republic of Somaliland. Because thats instant jail.

 

[Ayubi]

Exactly, people have been saying this for decades. First wipe Al kebab out and get this countries shit together! That way you will be taken more seriously. If you don’t have your shit together, they will laugh at you like the joke you are.

 

[GEEL-XAABSADE]

We can have a lose confederation with equal power and work to free galbeed to have a 3 united Somali regions with free movement of people and goods but political representatives being restricted to region of birth rather than clan. If you were born in Somaliland you can only hold important office like president or PM in somaliland and the same for Somalia and galbeed. Maybe Somaliland can even take part of the haud where isaq live.

 

[reer]

Thats 100% fine, as long as I see no blue flags and blue tracksuits in the Afro-Hashemite republic of Somaliland. Because thats instant jail.

View attachment 127858

30 years no ictiraaf

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Thats 100% fine, as long as I see no blue flags and blue tracksuits in the Afro-Hashemite republic of Somaliland. Because thats instant jail.

View attachment 127858

 

[AbdiGeedi]

You are right. Farmajo's team tried to start this early on it was a project called Fursad Fund which was supposed to create jobs in Somaliland. It was shut down immediately because they knew that it would change the heart of the unemployed population.

This should be done in the South before trying in Somaliland.

Can Somalia make agreements with third countries about exporting agricultural products like bananas or meat?

For example, Turkey imports bananas from Latin America. Can Somalia airlift bananas to Turkey at a competitive rate?

 

[amboli]

I came to a conclusion that the only way Somalia and Somaliland can become one again is if Somalia gets serious investments and undergoes economic development.

Somalia needs to concentrate on itself first and lead by example before trying to unite de facto. Right now the talks look like a poor attempt by a rich guy (the IC) to marry two street beggars.

Somalias only chance was while Somaliland has no access to IMF and World bank finances and they had alot of their aid blocked by Somalia as well. Somalia tried to economically and tribally break SL during president Farmajo tenure and it didn't work when Somaliland was at its weakest. Now the international community is giving Somaliland the same opportunity to world bank and IMF finances and aid as Somalia, they'll basically have the only thing they never had which Somalia used against them and that is $$ which will create jobs and give SL complete economic autonomy also autonomy over their airspace. After this agreement next week in Djbouti Somaliland will be to far gone for talks about unity

 

[repo]

This should be done in the South before trying in Somaliland.

Can Somalia make agreements with third countries about exporting agricultural products like bananas or meat?

For example, Turkey imports bananas from Latin America. Can Somalia airlift bananas to Turkey at a competitive rate?

It can be done but you would need to meet Turkish trade standards and most of Somalia's agricultural lands is filled with Shabaab there's no way to bring investment to these places and you also have to keep in mind all the land disputes.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

Somalias only chance was while Somaliland has no access to IMF and World bank finances and they had alot of their aid blocked by Somalia as well. Somalia tried to economically and tribally break SL during president Farmajo tenure and it didn't work when Somaliland was at its weakest. Now the international community is giving Somaliland the same opportunity to world bank and IMF finances and aid as Somalia, they'll basically have the only thing they never had which Somalia used against them and that is $$ which will create jobs and give SL complete economic autonomy also autonomy over their airspace. After this agreement next week in Djbouti Somaliland will be to far gone for talks about unity

Economic autonomy doesn't mean political autonomy. It won't automatically lead to recognition. I actually support Somaliland in trying to develop itself.

 

[AbdiGeedi]

It can be done but you would need to meet Turkish trade standards and most of Somalia's agricultural lands is filled with Shabaab there's no way to bring investment to these places and you also have to keep in mind all the land disputes.

Yep, those are operational issues. It can be overcome. Even the landlords could agree to resolve the issues if it leads to economic benefit for all of them. It's best to sell products and have money in hands then argue with empty hands.

 

[The alchemist]

Somalias only chance was while Somaliland has no access to IMF and World bank finances and they had alot of their aid blocked by Somalia as well. Somalia tried to economically and tribally break SL during president Farmajo tenure and it didn't work when Somaliland was at its weakest. Now the international community is giving Somaliland the same opportunity to world bank and IMF finances and aid as Somalia, they'll basically have the only thing they never had which Somalia used against them and that is $$ which will create jobs and give SL complete economic autonomy also autonomy over their airspace. After this agreement next week in Djbouti Somaliland will be to far gone for talks about unity

The opportunity presented to SL by the international community is very limited and not formal. There isn't going to be much financial investment if the country doesn't get international recognition, and the reason for that is, SL does not have the basic requirement for the needed formal international trade agreement to get great deal of FDI. Economic autonomy is what they can work to increase in this case, but it's very much constrained in the political sense, which also reinforces the stifling trajectory in economic growth.

 

[amboli]

The opportunity presented to SL by the international community is very limited and not formal. There isn't going to be much financial investment if the country doesn't get international recognition, and the reason for that is, SL does not have the basic requirement for the needed formal international trade agreement to get great deal of FDI. Economic autonomy is what they can work to increase in this case, but it's very much constrained in the political sense, which also reinforces the stifling trajectory in economic growth.

Yep, those are operational issues. It can be overcome. Even the landlords could agree to resolve the issues if it leads to economic benefit for all of them. It's best to sell products and have money in hands then argue with empty hands.

Political autonomy already exists or else the Foreign minister of Somalia wouldn't complain a week before the Djbouti conference on Qatars National broadcast Al Araby that Somalilands DP world project and the building of a military base is undermining Somalias Territorial integrity. The port and military base would be national assets under any government in the world.
Somalia requiring Somaliland to solve debt relief shows that Somalia is being forced to the table. Just before this meeting Somalias official stance was that all aid and world bank IMF funds for Somaliland must be channelled through Somalia. You think they changed their stance on this out of good will SL stance on gaining complete economic independence is actually one of the reasons the meeting almost fell apart in the first place. Somalia isn't entertaining this because of choice. Also the meeting almost fell apart because of internal discussions of a referendum during the meeting, which were not put on paper in phase 1 but will be in Phase 2 of the talks as discussed by SL FM. This is what the Interior Minister of Somalia frantically posted on facebook during the middlle of the meeting.

In point 3 he said things never heard before. That Somalia will make sure that anyone who took part in the war of the north will be charged for war crimes

In point 6 that SL can have their share of everything in the proposed union. The capital city, The presidency, The primeminister, The parliament

These are signs of being under pressure because none of these things were proposed by Somalia in good will prior to this forced communique. Besides who posts such a thing during a meeting. It's a last shot by Somalia interior minister at the public of SL to gain sentiments of unity

 

[Removed]

Political autonomy already exists or else the Foreign minister of Somalia wouldn't complain a week before the Djbouti conference on Qatars National broadcast Al Araby that Somalilands DP world project and the building of a military base is undermining Somalias Territorial integrity. The port and military base would be national assets under any government in the world.
Somalia requiring Somaliland to solve debt relief shows that Somalia is being forced to the table. Just before this meeting Somalias official stance was that all aid and world bank IMF funds for Somaliland must be channelled through Somalia. You think they changed their stance on this out of good will SL stance on gaining complete economic independence is actually one of the reasons the meeting almost fell apart in the first place. Somalia isn't entertaining this because of choice. Also the meeting almost fell apart because of internal discussions of a referendum during the meeting, which were not put on paper in phase 1 but will be in Phase 2 of the talks as discussed by SL FM. This is what the Interior Minister of Somalia frantically posted on facebook during the middlle of the meeting.View attachment 127867

In point 3 he said things never heard before. That Somalia will make sure that anyone who took part in the war of the north will be charged for war crimes

In point 6 that SL can have their share of everything in the proposed union. The capital city, The presidency, The primeminister, The parliament

These are signs of being under pressure because none of these things were proposed by Somalia in good will prior to this forced communique. Besides who posts such a thing during a meeting. It's a last shot by Somalia interior minister at the public of SL to gain sentiments of unity

You won’t gain recognition after the tragedy of South Sudan. You will need to have zero territory disputes for them to even consider it. This would be even if Kenya and Ethiopia would be happy with it.

If you ever got too close to ictiraaf the first thing that would happen is an uproar in SSC who are really just there for frivolous reasons. The world knows the ictiraaf of Somaliland wouldn’t lead to anything new in Africa.

 

[repo]

Yep, those are operational issues. It can be overcome. Even the landlords could agree to resolve the issues if it leads to economic benefit for all of them. It's best to sell products and have money in hands then argue with empty hands.

You are naive if you think Somalis will cooperate for their own benefit. I understand what you are thinking but Somalia is not like that. Without full government control and disarmament, agricultural reform can not happen. Fursad was a good idea on paper but they implemented it in the wrong place we can agree on that.

 

[amboli]

You won’t gain recognition after the tragedy of South Sudan. You will need to have zero territory disputes for them to even consider it. This would be even if Kenya and Ethiopia would be happy with it.

If you ever got too close to ictiraaf the first thing that would happen is an uproar in SSC who are really just there for frivolous reasons. The world knows the ictiraaf of Somaliland wouldn’t lead to anything new in Africa.

South Sudan didn't join North Sudan in a union so the cases are not even legally similar let alone comparable. SSC controls 1 border town in Somaliland half of which is in Ethiopia. Even Somalia doesn't take them seriously so why would the world . Even though your line of thinking here is flawed if I used the same analogy for Somaliland of SSC causing a war similar to south sudan, it would be far worse than your analogy for the IC to force Somaliland back into a union with Somalia than SSC leaving with Somaliland while SSC only controls a small town vs Somaliland actually having a full government,army, economy and controls almost all its claimed territory. That's why the international community is mediating between Somalia and Somaliland, not puntland not SSC not Maakhir etc who they dont see as stakeholders in the formation or dissolution of the union. Policy advisors in the USA had a discussion about all of this over a year ago regarding Somalia/Somaliland and South Yemen and North yemen. They concluded that they need to change their approach in these regions. That's what we're seeing unfold in these meetings. The world is tired of giving billions in aid, billions in development and billions in security and not having anything change

 

[Som]

we ain't letting somaliland go

Honestly bro, I'm all for Somali unity and pansomalism but Somalilanders have been trying to sabotage somalia from day 1. If unity was achieved there would a high risk of somaliland breaking away again for some reasons.
Let's just take back sool , sanaag and all Darood areas. They can keep the rest