Analysis on Syria
With so many propagandists and paid journalists rushing to chime in about the revolution in Syria, they lead people into complex interpretations of the events that ultimately serve only the normalizing Arab regimes, Iran, and Israel.
First and foremost, the Syrians do not deny coordinating with the Turks when their interests align.
About a month ago, the U.S. decided to arm the Kurds, which brought this alignment closer. The Americans made a massive mistake when they did this.
At that time, Erdogan was trying to convince Bashar to resolve the issues between them. Meanwhile, Bashar believed that the Gulf countries would support him against Turkey and attempted to leverage his relations with them as a counterbalance.
Therefore, he used the Kurds as a bargaining chip in exchange for concessions regarding the Syrians under the Turkish sphere of influence.
Erdogan stated a month ago that a war was being prepared against Turkey, and he was not lying.
The factions in Idlib had been preparing for an offensive for over a year. This is why I vaguely hinted numerous times at such an offensive back in May, June, and July.
The interests of the Syrians and the Turks aligned during a very specific timeframe: the transition period of the U.S. presidency.
The Turks wanted the Syrians to launch their operation three months ago, around the time the split between the regime and Turkey occurred. However, the rebels rejected this.
They refused to launch an offensive until Hezbollah was weakened in Lebanon. They also wanted to gauge how willing Iran was to support Bashar—a stress test to reveal the maximum potential support Iran could offer, if any at all.
The goal for the Syrians was to expose the entire Axis of Resistance militarily, make the situation clearer in the media, and prevent any accusations of collaboration with the Americans.
This delay greatly annoyed Turkey.
However, as soon as Hezbollah signed a one-sided ceasefire agreement and it became clear Iran was not willing to engage, the Syrians moved forward.
The Syrian factions informed the Turks of their plans and began executing a plan that they had been preparing for over a year.
The Americans, on the ground, lack the tools needed to intervene to stop these advances. Their presence in the region is designed for maintaining interests and balances, not for waging wars.
The Americans targeted militias to prevent the conflict zone from expanding and possibly threatening their most treasured political asset: the political process in Iraq.
The U.S. accuses the Idlib factions of terrorism, and its attempt to negotiate a political settlement with Bashar is not an indication of support for the rebels. On the contrary, it is an attempt to sideline the rebels and create a new political reality to prevent them from achieving a comprehensive victory by toppling Bashar's regime—something Israel considers a threat to its security.
Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, and its current forces in Syria are not militarily capable of providing any real support for Bashar. Russia cannot conduct effective combat operations at the needed pace in Syria.
The Gulf states are also currently not funding operations to kill Syrians, as they understand such efforts would ultimately be futile at the moment.
If Russia truly believed Bashar's regime could be saved, Gulf money would flow into Russia, as it did in 2015–2016.
However, the rebels' strategy has made this impossible. They rely on speed, accurate intelligence, and their total infiltration of Bashar's fragile regime.
This is a regime that cannot even maintain a single defensive front line to fight from, which is why it constantly withdraws to Syria's coastal areas and Damascus. It has no other choice.
Claims that the Syrian factions' military plan is somehow approved by the U.S. reflect a defeatist mindset—one that refuses to believe the people of the Middle East are capable of competence without Western backing.
Such individuals struggle to understand that the conflicts and events in the Middle East create contradictions that can be exploited into golden opportunities by those who are well-prepared.
The victory of the Syrian factions proves there are people in Syria who are politically savvy and possess real strategic patience. They refuse to buy into the delusions peddled by Iran or the defeatist Gulf media.
They have built strong power that they unleashed at the right time, exposing the weakness of all regional powers while imposing a new reality.
The Syrians exploited contradictions created by the martyr Yahya Sinwar.
Simply put, the Americans seek to safeguard their interests and will not join a conflict on behalf of any party. This is particularly true under Trump, who, in most of his interventions, prefers to play chess with Arab regimes rather than engage in direct conflict— before eventually taking credit for all the achievements.
The U.S. and it's allies in the region refuse to acknowledge that the current state of affairs is neither in their favor nor under their control.
These states pretend to be powerful and omniscient, but they are merely buying time and attempting indirect political influence to prevent a major collapse and escalating hostilities in the region.
For this reason, they have instructed the Iraqi government to remain silent for the time being.
This will remain the reality until the inauguration.
Even if they wish to alter it, they lack the means to do so.
The only tools left are Gulf funds, Iranian and Kurdish militias. These could be deployed under the pretext of counterterrorism, which would be justified after any significant incidents. Which they then would blame the rebels for.
But this is not easy in Syria, where the conditions change every hour in favor of the rebels.