South Africa V. Israel ICJ Predictions

[Awareness]

You likely know that South Africa has taken Israel to the International Court of Justice on the charge of genocide. The case will be heard and televised tomorrow.

South Africa seeks a provisional determination; The court will not decide if Israel is actively committing genocide, but rather, if there is a plausible case presented for genocide.

If the court decides that there is a plausible case, the court will issue orders towards Israel to cease actions related to the case.

It is unclear if this rogue state would comply in this case, but notheless, the ruling would have signicant impact on Israel - Its international standing, ability to purchase weapons, tourism industry, etc could all be significantly impacted.

If the Court decides there is not a plausible case, it would expose International law to be a western fantasy, a myth.

What are your predictions?

 

[Kool-Aid]

Israel is back by the US! The ICJ will not rule against Israel.

 

[Awareness]

Israel is back by the US! The ICJ will not rule against Israel.

The ICJ has judges from 15 countries:

US Germany France Australia India Japan Slovakia Russia China Brazil Morocco Uganda Somalia Lebanon Jamaica

The US is just 1 vote out of many, including several global south countries, so your justification isn't as solid. There are many judges from western aligned countries though.

South Africa needs 8 out of this list.

I do wonder if someone has statistics on how frequently ICJ judges vote in alignment with the interests of their host nation / sphere of influence their host nation is under. It obviously will happen frequently, but the extent to which is does from precedence would shift my probabilities on this case.

 

[ila-soco]

nothing will happen, israel will continue its campaign

 

[Haragwaafi]

The illegal zionist entity will be be charged guilty of committing a genocide and that will ruin its reputation around the world and never be seen as a "normal" country further putting its existence into danger which we all wish it to come sooner so we don't hear or see that entity name on the map or in the news

 

[Scipio Africanus]

Somalia, Morocco & Lebanon are 3 guaranteed Arab votes against Israel. Hopefully other countries find Israel guilty as well.

 

[Buddeh]

I trust that the Somali judge will find Israel guilty of all the charged put forth. The US is just as guilty since isreal doesn’t produce those munitions and is heavily reliant on America. This might have ramifications (retaliation from the US) but it Couldn’t be worse then sitting idly as the Zionist regime attempts to wipe a people from the face of the earth. It’s a motion that applies the necessary pressure on Israel and if our judge fails to see the obvious then he will never live this down

 

[Mayor]

Somalia, Morocco & Lebanon are 3 guaranteed Arab votes against Israel. Hopefully other countries find Israel guilty as well.

Morocco is aillied with Israel. So I doubt that they’ll go against them

 

[The alchemist]

Even if the case is successful, nothing actionable will come out of it.

I agree that if the ruling is against, it serves as a proof of concept for the depth of the inherent bias.

International law, human rights, all these things are Western power-based enforced civilizational terms that are tailored colored to its disposition. Nothing neutral, universal, or international about it.

"Might is right" is the law.

Though I find the idea of a "rouge state" mildly funny. I watched a horrid discussion between two zionist worms and one of them said that about Iran. Rogue implies one should naturally be within the fold of something else.

 

[Scipio Africanus]

Morocco is aillied with Israel. So I doubt that they’ll go against them

Where's the proof of this alliance? Just because they have relations with Israel does not equate to an alliance.

 

[Mayor]

Where's the proof of this alliance? Just because they have relations with Israel does not equate to an alliance.

What’s your definition of an alliance? If you have trade and defense agreements where Israel agrees to sell weapons and cybersecurity assets isn’t that an alliance?

Here’s a statement issued by the US government after Israel and Morocco normalized relations. Look at the list without the numbers at the bottom of the page. Is that not a description of an alliance?

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Joint-Declaration-US-Morrocco-Israel.pdf

 

[Scipio Africanus]

What’s your definition of an alliance? If you have trade and defense agreements where Israel agrees to sell weapons and cybersecurity assets isn’t that an alliance?

Here’s a statement issued by the US government after Israel and Morocco normalized relations. Look at the list without the numbers at the bottom of the page. Is that not a description of an alliance?

https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Joint-Declaration-US-Morrocco-Israel.pdf

That's clearly not an alliance. An alliance would imply two or more states having an exclusive relationship/binding agreement that would entail giving preferential treatment towards each other in international diplomacy; be willing to defend each other in the event of war & trade super advanced weapons only with each other etc.

Morocco simply re-established relations with Israel & they could easily withdraw from having relations with them.

Egypt, North Sudan and Jordan also have relations with Israel, does that mean they have an alliance with them? Obviously not. They're just weak and corrupt states who have sold themselves out for chump change.

 

[Mayor]

That's clearly not an alliance. An alliance would imply two or more states having an exclusive relationship/binding agreement that would entail giving preferential treatment towards each other in international diplomacy; be willing to defend each other in the event of war etc.

Morocco simply re-established relations with Israel & they could easily withdraw from having relations with them.

Yea but not every alliance includes a defense pact

Israel advocates for pro-Moroccan issues such as Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara for instance. Israel has helped Morocco build two factories to start producing drones

Couldn’t a relationship like this be described as somewhat of an alliance?

 

[Scipio Africanus]

Yea but not every alliance includes a defense pact

Israel advocates for pro-Moroccan issues such as Moroccan sovereignty over the Western Sahara for instance. Israel has helped Morocco build two factories to start producing drones

Couldn’t a relationship like this be described as somewhat of an alliance?

It's just close bilateral relations, the example you gave of the Israelis building drone factories in Morocco comes close to what can been seen as an "alliance", but it still falls short. There has to be a formal agreement/military pact for there to be anything meaningful.

In my eyes, I don't view Morocco and Israel on the same level. Morocco is in the same boat as Sudan, Egypt and Jordan who have sold themselves out for chump change and empty promises for the most part.

 

[Mayor]

the example of you gave of the Israelis building drone factories in Morocco comes to what can been seen as an "alliance".

So you agree that Israel and Morocco’s relationship is an alliance then? Because that wasn’t a hypothetical, Israel actually built two factories in Morocco

Israeli Drone Maker to Set Up Two Factories in Morocco

The Israeli company Elbit Systems, a leader in the manufacture of defense systems, plans to open two factories in Morocco soon, announced Shai Cohen, head of the…

www.aapeaceinstitute.org

 

[Scipio Africanus]

So you agree that Israel and Morocco’s relationship is an alliance then? Because that wasn’t a hypothetical, Israel actually built two factories in Morocco

Israeli Drone Maker to Set Up Two Factories in Morocco

The Israeli company Elbit Systems, a leader in the manufacture of defense systems, plans to open two factories in Morocco soon, announced Shai Cohen, head of the…

www.aapeaceinstitute.org

At best it's an informal alliance, I'll give you that.