Somali's GDP per Capita is false

[Barkhadle1520]

Yep . The flood hit the hardest in the south because of the two rivers. EL Nino was truly a once in a century flood. The most equivalent to this that i have learned about recently is the yellow river flood : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1938_Yellow_River_flood#Damages

I learned about it from a youtube video titled "China's Massive Dam (Which Collapsed)"

It was a Sypertyphoon La Nina that pretty much devastated large parts of Chinese and they really didn't recover from it fully for many years to come. It was once in a thousand year flood.

The drought and dry period can be somewhat manageable through water harvesting, storage and supply systems and the lands productivity usually recovers when the rainy season comes , that's why those displaced strictly by drought only are actually minimal in comparison.

To me what i find inspiring really is what the Seed System Groups articulated, namely the resilience and forward thinking spirit, despite the setbacks they refused to be held back by it.
View attachment 363690

Also correct me if I'm wrong but the 2023 drought actually started in 2021 right ?

 

[Zak12]

In comparison, our neighbor Ethiopia has 15.8M people who face high food insecurity according to the FSNWG.

What about per capita? Ethiopia has a much bigger population.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

What about per capita? Ethiopia has a much bigger population.

We're like 8% ahead of them pretty sure

 

[dcstardude]

Forget about the Oil we're not seeing it in our lifetime.

Oil is literally being drilled right now wdym we'll literally be seeing that shit within 5-10 years

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Oil is literally being drilled right now wdym we'll literally be seeing that shit within 5-10 years

I stand corrected, you were right but it's not being drilled right now

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Livestock has great wealth-generating potential than we often realize. Instead of exporting animals wholesale, we can process them into a wide range of industrial goods — leather, plastics, cosmetics, medicines, fertilizers, and more.

Just from dairy alone: milk and dairy products generated $6 billion domestically in 2016.

And it's already starting , beyond milk and dairy processors, Somalia has begun opening meat processing plants and modern slaughterhouses.



But fish can also be extremely lucrative if we scale production of it,

And i almost forgot the large fish processing plant they are building in Garcad


I wonder how far they come with the construction..





Check my posts about this:

Somalia Fishing

Won’t be much left with all these sales and MOU

www.somalispot.com

From 2017 and 2025 they have built extensive cold chain infrastructure across the Somali coast and storage/processing facilities, plants, started to invest in fish farms and they have also opened up shops to sell them locally as well in the major cities , not just exports so the revenue numbers is probably in the hundreds of millions now.

The gov wants to export more fish by 2027

Also interesting thing, Gov. knows most of the economy is largely informal and they admit over half the workforce is employed in the private sector

Here they plan on soon opening a department which will do financial reporting using internationally recognized standards like IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for private sector financial reporting, so we may see more accurate estimations of the informal economy in the future,

I dont know if they plan on giving more accurate estimates on mobile money tho, they just give vague initiatives on ICT regulations

 

[Midas]

Honestly considering how many factors seem to br falling into place like this oil money and our fast pouplation and economic growth. The transformation Somalia will likely undergo over the next 2-3 decades will probably be the fastest in Africa and maybe even the world ( especially since our pouplation isn't so large that we need a huge share of the world's economic growth that countries like ethiopia or Nigeria or Pakistan would need )

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Honestly considering how many factors seem to br falling into place like this oil money and our fast pouplation and economic growth. The transformation Somalia will likely undergo over the next 2-3 decades will probably be the fastest in Africa and maybe even the world ( especially since our pouplation isn't so large that we need a huge share of the world's economic growth that countries like ethiopia or Nigeria or Pakistan would need )

Corruption which leads to political unstability is literally nerfing us so bad, were last on the CPI score. Seeing how things are going right now if the gov is still as corrupt in a few years it will lead to worsening politicial stability and we may see African union troops leaving and FGS getting overrun by shabab

 

[Idilinaa]

Corruption which leads to political unstability is literally nerfing us so bad, were last on the CPI score. Seeing how things are going right now if the gov is still as corrupt in a few years it will lead to worsening politicial stability and we may see African union troops leaving and FGS getting overrun by shabab

The more likely scenario is a strengthening of local governance and accountability , especially as foreign funding sources begin to dry up.

When the corrupt post-1960 civilian government emerged, it was eventually dislodged by the Kacaan government.

When the corrupt warlords rose from foreign-backed proxies, they were dislodged by the Islamic Courts Union.

We all know how much rapid progress institutional building and political stability came out of that moment before it was unfortunately derailed.

I feel like something similar could eventually happen with the FGS , not an Al-Shabaab takeover. HornAristocrat summed it up well in his thread: Al-Shabaab only appears strong because of the FGS’s corruption and incompetence. I mean, they’re getting smacked around by a local militia like the Macawisley.

I also believe political integration is absolutely possible , the economic integration is already there. I’ve always said this is the perfect moment for a civic movement to take root and reshape Somalia’s political landscape.

 

[Idilinaa]

The gov wants to export more fish by 2027

View attachment 363916

Also interesting thing, Gov. knows most of the economy is largely informal and they admit over half the workforce is employed in the private sector

View attachment 363917

Here they plan on soon opening a department which will do financial reporting using internationally recognized standards like IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) for private sector financial reporting, so we may see more accurate estimations of the informal economy in the future,

View attachment 363918

I dont know if they plan on giving more accurate estimates on mobile money tho, they just give vague initiatives on ICT regulations

View attachment 363919

I see that they mention the low tax-to-GDP ratio. Honestly, the government shouldn't even bother with directly taxing personal income , I’ve seen their plans, and it’s not going to work for many reasons. At least not yet , at this stage.

In my opinion, revenue should be generated through trade/export taxes, large enterprise taxation, and through state ownership or joint public-private partnerships in key strategic sectors.

The Kacaan government was able to pay public wages/salaries and fund public services including education, healthcare, and welfare (they even paid stipends and provided food), while still having money left over to fund one-third of all development projects.

That was possible because the government had direct revenue streams from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), business taxes, and customs duties on imports/exports.

On top of that, I think the government should mobilize diaspora investment far more efficiently. Right now, about $3 billion is sent annually as remittances. But with the right policy tools and incentives, they could potentially attract $5 billion or more as direct investment and use that to fund infrastructure and development directly.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

I see that they mention the low tax-to-GDP ratio. Honestly, the government shouldn't even bother with directly taxing personal income , I’ve seen their plans, and it’s not going to work for many reasons.

In my opinion, revenue should be generated through trade/export taxes, large enterprise taxation, and through state ownership or joint public-private partnerships in key strategic sectors.

The Kacaan government was able to pay public wages/salaries and fund public services including education, healthcare, and welfare (they even paid stipends and provided food), while still having money left over to fund one-third of all development projects.

That was possible because the government had direct revenue streams from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), business taxes, and customs duties on imports/exports.

On top of that, I think the government should mobilize diaspora investment far more efficiently. Right now, about $3 billion is sent annually as remittances. But with the right policy tools and incentives, they could potentially attract $5 billion or more as direct investment and use that to fund infrastructure and development directly.

Ok but isn't the tax to GDP ratio not the biggest problem ? Effective taxation is something every functioning Gov. needs, they need to implement effective income, VAT & mobile transfer taxes for the state to function correctly

 

[Barkhadle1520]

The more likely scenario is a strengthening of local governance and accountability , especially as foreign funding sources begin to dry up.

When the corrupt post-1960 civilian government emerged, it was eventually dislodged by the Kacaan government.

When the corrupt warlords rose from foreign-backed proxies, they were dislodged by the Islamic Courts Union.

We all know how much rapid progress institutional building and political stability came out of that moment before it was unfortunately derailed.

I feel like something similar could eventually happen with the FGS , not an Al-Shabaab takeover. HornAristocrat summed it up well in his thread: Al-Shabaab only appears strong because of the FGS’s corruption and incompetence. I mean, they’re getting smacked around by a local militia like the Macawisley.

I also believe political integration is absolutely possible , the economic integration is already there. I’ve always said this is the perfect moment for a civic movement to take root and reshape Somalia’s political landscape.

Somalia is an occupied country, another gov like the ICU would immidiately start a new instability period, this is not something we should vow for, instead fgs could be fixed, even if still corrupt im fine with them being 100th in the CPI score

 

[Idilinaa]

Somalia is an occupied country, another gov like the ICU would immidiately start a new instability period, this is not something we should vow for, instead fgs could be fixed, even if still corrupt im fine with them being 100th in the CPI score

I was thinking more of regime change not displace them. I think if its a national building movement built on our shared Islamic faith and shared culture i think it would resonate across.

Look through this:

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar On How To Rebuild a ''Somali Civic Identity''

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samater highlights the unprecedented challenges facing the Somali people, describing the collapse of the state and the disintegration of the nation as a situation not seen in the past 500 years. He notes that external forces are working to ensure Somalia never recovers. Samater...

www.somalispot.com

 

[Barkhadle1520]

I was thinking more of regime change not displace them. I think if its a national building movement built on our shared Islamic faith and shared culture i think it would resonate across.

Look through this:

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar On How To Rebuild a ''Somali Civic Identity''

Prof. Abdi Ismail Samater highlights the unprecedented challenges facing the Somali people, describing the collapse of the state and the disintegration of the nation as a situation not seen in the past 500 years. He notes that external forces are working to ensure Somalia never recovers. Samater...

www.somalispot.com

He said not Political islam tho ?

 

[Idilinaa]

Ok but isn't the tax to GDP ratio not the biggest problem ? Effective taxation is something every functioning Gov. needs, they need to implement effective income, VAT & mobile transfer taxes for the state to function correctly

The government should absolutely tax mobile transfers, formal businesses and enterprises, as well as trade (import/export).


That approach is far more effective because it targets where the money actually moves, instead of chasing hypothetical household income data which is difficult to track in a largely informal, cash-less economy.


Income tax can come later, once wage levels rise and public confidence in government improves. At that point, it’ll face less resistance and won’t place an undue burden on households.


If the FGS hadn’t mismanaged or pocketed much of the donor grants and aid it receives, it could have used those resources to build state-owned enterprises or public-private joint ventures. After all, if the private sector can use diaspora remittances, small donations, and collective investment to build factories, companies, and entire industries, then the government should be able to do the same , if not better.

The bulk of state revenue should come from import/export duties and levies on goods especially in an economy like Somalia’s, which is fundamentally trade driven, coastal, and built around dynamic trade networks rather than a conventional payroll based system

This is where the Kacaan government deserves some credit , they understood how the Somali economy actually functioned and tried to design a taxation system around that reality.

 

[Neptune]

I see that they mention the low tax-to-GDP ratio. Honestly, the government shouldn't even bother with directly taxing personal income , I’ve seen their plans, and it’s not going to work for many reasons. At least not yet , at this stage.

In my opinion, revenue should be generated through trade/export taxes, large enterprise taxation, and through state ownership or joint public-private partnerships in key strategic sectors.

The Kacaan government was able to pay public wages/salaries and fund public services including education, healthcare, and welfare (they even paid stipends and provided food), while still having money left over to fund one-third of all development projects.

That was possible because the government had direct revenue streams from state-owned enterprises (SOEs), business taxes, and customs duties on imports/exports.

On top of that, I think the government should mobilize diaspora investment far more efficiently. Right now, about $3 billion is sent annually as remittances. But with the right policy tools and incentives, they could potentially attract $5 billion or more as direct investment and use that to fund infrastructure and development directly.

Taxing personal income for a corrupt government that doesn't even represent its own citizens is evil. It's just going to agitate people even more.

 

[Medeea]

The government should absolutely tax mobile transfers, formal businesses and enterprises, as well as trade (import/export).


That approach is far more effective because it targets where the money actually moves, instead of chasing hypothetical household income data which is difficult to track in a largely informal, cash-based economy.


Income tax can come later, once wage levels rise and public confidence in government improves. At that point, it’ll face less resistance and won’t place an undue burden on already struggling households.


If the FGS hadn’t mismanaged or pocketed much of the donor grants and aid it receives, it could have used those resources to build state-owned enterprises or public-private joint ventures. After all, if the private sector can use diaspora remittances, small donations, and collective investment to build factories, companies, and entire industries, then the government should be able to do the same , if not better.

The bulk of state revenue should come from import/export duties and levies on goods especially in an economy like Somalia’s, which is fundamentally trade driven, coastal, and built around dynamic trade networks rather than a conventional payroll based system

This is where the Kacaan government deserves some credit , they understood how the Somali economy actually functioned and tried to design a taxation system around that reality.

Xamar/HAG’s economic model runs circles around Kacaan and its offshoots. The northern mafias kept Kacaan's import/export dependency. Except they don't even export anything.

3 years ago My isaaq coworker tried opening a poultry farm in Hargeysa. SL officials blocked and sabotaged it. Why? Because some higher up monopolizes egg imports and kills any and every competition on sight.

Hargeysa, Garoowe and Djibouti’s whole system leech off import/port duties(+ aid) that breeds monopolies/oligarchies and choke any real economical growth.

Don’t just take my word for it. The results speak for themselves.

Zero conflict Hargysa same shot

Same exact road. 12 years apart. And everybody knows Xamar’s still fighting off Al-Shabaab and Wahhabi fanatics daily

Even GM started copying Xamar’s pro-business model in the last 2 years and the results are already showing

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695K views · 33K reactions | Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha.. | Abwaan Sharlaawe

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I like that FGS is diversifying its taxe base beyond the lazy anti-business import model, slashing corporate tax in half, lowering tariffs, and tapping into personal income.


bUt TaX aVoIdAnCe bRo. fGs CoRrUpTiOn bRo
Who cares? As long as small and mid-sized businesses are growing.
FGS need to work on security, find cheap sources of energy and establish free economical zone. The far less corrupt private sector will do the rest. Fuk ur state-owned commie enterprises that kills competition.

If they really need a quick source of cash , then oil/gas and other natural resources should be their focus. Anything away from small & midsize businesses.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Xamar/HAG’s economic model runs circles around Kacaan and its offshoots. The northern mafias kept Kacaan's import/export dependency. Except they don't even export anything.

3 years ago My isaaq coworker tried opening a poultry farm in Hargeysa. SL officials blocked and sabotaged it. Why? Because some higher up monopolizes egg imports and kills any and every competition on sight.

Hargeysa, Garoowe and Djibouti’s whole system leech off import/port duties(+ aid) that breeds monopolies/oligarchies and choke any real economical growth.

Don’t just take my word for it. The results speak for themselves.

Zero conflict Hargysa same shot

View attachment 364024

Same exact road. 12 years apart. And everybody knows Xamar’s still fighting off Al-Shabaab and Wahhabi fanatics daily
View attachment 364025
View attachment 364026
View attachment 364027
Even GM started copying Xamar’s pro-business model in the last 2 years and the results are already showing

TikTok - Make Your Day

695K views · 33K reactions | Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha.. | Abwaan Sharlaawe

Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha...

www.facebook.com

I like that FGS is diversifying its taxe base beyond the lazy anti-business import model, slashing corporate tax in half, lowering tariffs, and tapping into personal income.


bUt TaX aVoIdAnCe bRo. fGs CoRrUpTiOn bRo
Who cares? As long as small and mid-sized businesses are growing.
FGS need to work on security, find cheap sources of energy and establish free economical zone. The far less corrupt private sector will do the rest. Fuk ur state-owned commie enterprises that kills competition.

If they really need a quick source of cash , then oil/gas and other natural resources should be their focus. Anything away from small & midsize businesses.T

That is very common in SL

 

[Midas]

Xamar/HAG’s economic model runs circles around Kacaan and its offshoots. The northern mafias kept Kacaan's import/export dependency. Except they don't even export anything.

3 years ago My isaaq coworker tried opening a poultry farm in Hargeysa. SL officials blocked and sabotaged it. Why? Because some higher up monopolizes egg imports and kills any and every competition on sight.

Hargeysa, Garoowe and Djibouti’s whole system leech off import/port duties(+ aid) that breeds monopolies/oligarchies and choke any real economical growth.

Don’t just take my word for it. The results speak for themselves.

Zero conflict Hargysa same shot

View attachment 364024

Same exact road. 12 years apart. And everybody knows Xamar’s still fighting off Al-Shabaab and Wahhabi fanatics daily
View attachment 364025
View attachment 364026
View attachment 364027
Even GM started copying Xamar’s pro-business model in the last 2 years and the results are already showing

TikTok - Make Your Day

695K views · 33K reactions | Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha.. | Abwaan Sharlaawe

Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha...

www.facebook.com

I like that FGS is diversifying its taxe base beyond the lazy anti-business import model, slashing corporate tax in half, lowering tariffs, and tapping into personal income.


bUt TaX aVoIdAnCe bRo. fGs CoRrUpTiOn bRo
Who cares? As long as small and mid-sized businesses are growing.
FGS need to work on security, find cheap sources of energy and establish free economical zone. The far less corrupt private sector will do the rest. Fuk ur state-owned commie enterprises that kills competition.

If they really need a quick source of cash , then oil/gas and other natural resources should be their focus. Anything away from small & midsize businesses.

While I think you bring up intresting points with the business model of sl/garowe. The idea of a govt getting out of the way and letting business do whatever it wants is extremly naive.

The goal of a businessman at the end of the day is to make money. The goal of the state is to develop the nation. What do you think happens when you allow the intrestes of a business to come before that of a nation ? Its already a bit problematic how powerful the telecom companies in Somalia are.


Theres also the simple fact that every sucessful industrialization of a country was state led. The billions of dollars required to build infrastructure and invest to buikd an industrial base can only come from government direction.


Tdlr : business are motivated by profit. Unless kept on a leash capital will overpower the long term interests of a state .

 

[Idilinaa]

Xamar/HAG’s economic model runs circles around Kacaan and its offshoots. The northern mafias kept Kacaan's import/export dependency. Except they don't even export anything.

3 years ago My isaaq coworker tried opening a poultry farm in Hargeysa. SL officials blocked and sabotaged it. Why? Because some higher up monopolizes egg imports and kills any and every competition on sight.

Hargeysa, Garoowe and Djibouti’s whole system leech off import/port duties(+ aid) that breeds monopolies/oligarchies and choke any real economical growth.

Don’t just take my word for it. The results speak for themselves.

Zero conflict Hargysa same shot

View attachment 364024



Same exact road. 12 years apart. And everybody knows Xamar’s still fighting off Al-Shabaab and Wahhabi fanatics daily
View attachment 364025
View attachment 364026
View attachment 364027
Even GM started copying Xamar’s pro-business model in the last 2 years and the results are already showing

TikTok - Make Your Day

695K views · 33K reactions | Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha.. | Abwaan Sharlaawe

Warshado maleh soomaaliya iyo waa dal aan waxba dunida u iib gayn karin ha...

www.facebook.com

I like that FGS is diversifying its taxe base beyond the lazy anti-business import model, slashing corporate tax in half, lowering tariffs, and tapping into personal income.


bUt TaX aVoIdAnCe bRo. fGs CoRrUpTiOn bRo
Who cares? As long as small and mid-sized businesses are growing.
FGS need to work on security, find cheap sources of energy and establish free economical zone. The far less corrupt private sector will do the rest. Fuk ur state-owned commie enterprises that kills competition.

If they really need a quick source of cash , then oil/gas and other natural resources should be their focus. Anything away from small & midsize businesses.

There aren’t actual monopolies in Somaliland what likely happened in that poultry case is tied to licensing and registration requirements, which tend to be stricter compared to Mogadishu. The cost of acquiring licenses is what drives many to operate informally. That’s probably what your colleague was referring to.

Business licensing, however, brings significant income to the government.

This is why I believe struggling businesses should receive targeted tax exemptions, capped taxation, and even government grants for license acquisition to help encourage formalization and stimulate growth.

Also, let’s be clear: Somaliland has a growing poultry sector. Over the last 2–3 years, they’ve worked to develop a proper value chain including storage, processing, and local production. In fact, poultry farms now outnumber traditional livestock farms in some areas.

There are a number of well-known poultry operations: Mandeeq Poultry, Someggs Poultry, Tooyo Poultry, Mahuraan Poultry, Lootah Hargeisa Chicken, and others.

Even small youth-run poultry businesses are starting and thriving.

As for the broader economy Hargeisa actually has the second-highest number of registered businesses in Somalia (31,000), just after Mogadishu (50,000). So it’s incorrect to claim it’s anti-business. Benadir administration also issues licenses and taxes businesses. Both cities operate on a similar model in that regard.

Hargaisa is pretty much similar to Mogadishu's transformation, If you look at the recent renovations of Hargeisa’s central business district it has modern buildings, palm tree boulevards, renovated roads, you’d see it’s thriving.

You can watch the whole video to see how it's shaped out.


Same road in Hargeisa only a few months apart

How it looks now:

How it used to look:

Same with Garowe, which has undergone a transformation through local revenue funded infrastructure and public works.

There are no real monopolies or oligarchies in Somalia what we have is a network of competing enterprises, community-run businesses, and cooperatives. Trying to interpret Somalia’s economic ecosystem through a Western shareholder-capitalist lens completely misses how things actually function here.

In fact, Puntland and Somaliland receive far less international aid compared to FGS, and they fund most of their governance through domestic revenue.

Puntland, in particular, has the most diversified tax base in the country: mobile money tax, property tax, business tax, transportation levies they’ve built an internally sustainable model.

Meanwhile, FGS is still largely reliant on customs duties and donor aid, with a narrow tax base and poor returns.

The Kacaan government actually had a broad tax system. It supplemented trade taxes with revenue from state-owned enterprises, business profits, tolls and even export levies. That’s what allowed it to fund public services and infrastructure.

This brings me to income tax. I’ve seen how income taxes cripple livelihoods in Somali regions like the NFD and the Ogaden before the regime change. People already pay out-of-pocket for everything healthcare, education, security, even roads. Now you want the government to tax their salaries too, and still not provide anything in return?


I’m not saying income tax should be permanently off the table, but for now, it’s neither practical nor justifiable. We need to build trust and capacity first. Once wage levels rise and the state can actually offer services, then income taxation will be less burdensome and more acceptable.

Also, given the high informality of the economy, enforcing income tax would be costly and inefficient right now. It’s better to tax where money already moves visibly: trade, large enterprises, mobile transfers, and real property.