Somaliland 2012 Local District Elections Results
- Thread starter Foreman
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@Duke of Bohol it seems that your clan has the 2 other major clans opposed to it, so you are left trying to build a coalition, while they have a partnership.
This reminds me of Kenya where the Kalenjin and Kikuyu have a partnership and only need some smaller tribes like the Somali and Masai to win. Meanwhile the Luo are the only major tribe that is entirely in the opposition and have to form large, difficult to control coalitions in order to compete.
Kulmiye automatically starts at 40% and builds a coalition on that high base, while Wadani starts at 25% and builds from there.
Of course, every election won by that coalition leads to a bandwagon effect in the next election reducing the number of available small clans. If Wadani loses this time, and the Kulmiye partnership survives, there will be no small clans willing to join a Wadani coalition the next election.
This reminds me of Kenya where the Kalenjin and Kikuyu have a partnership and only need some smaller tribes like the Somali and Masai to win. Meanwhile the Luo are the only major tribe that is entirely in the opposition and have to form large, difficult to control coalitions in order to compete.
Kulmiye automatically starts at 40% and builds a coalition on that high base, while Wadani starts at 25% and builds from there.
Of course, every election won by that coalition leads to a bandwagon effect in the next election reducing the number of available small clans. If Wadani loses this time, and the Kulmiye partnership survives, there will be no small clans willing to join a Wadani coalition the next election.
Bohol
VIP
@Thegoodshepherd The Kikuyu and Kalenjin comparison doesn't work in this case because there is another major block which forms as the base for WADANI (Gadabursi), were's the Luo don't have another big ethnic group as their ally. In reality WADANI only needs CG + Arap + GD votes to win. GD is not a small clan but a major clan in the north. HY + GD + smaller clans votes is how Dahir Riyaale of UDUB defeated Siilanyo back in 2003.
HY & Gadabursi alone are around 35-40% of Somaliland. So to win WADANI only needs the CG and the smaller clans like Arap on their side same-way Kulmiye needs them.
HY & Gadabursi alone are around 35-40% of Somaliland. So to win WADANI only needs the CG and the smaller clans like Arap on their side same-way Kulmiye needs them.
I don't think it is accurate to think of Gadabursi as a single body, they seem vote as subclans. I don't know enough about the clan dynamics in Somaliland to predict much, but if Kulmiye win again somaliland is basically a single party state for the foreseeable future.
Bohol
VIP
In Gadabursi all you have to understand is they have a landheere community (Makahiil
who make up around 70% or more in Awdal) then you have the rest who vote for Kulmiye
& other parties who live in the coastal districts. At the moment WADANI has the most
important community in Awdal the Makahiil vote (the clan of Dahir Riyaale) in their pocket
so it is sealed. It is like the Mohamud Salebaan of Majerteen, if you have the Mohamud
Salebaan vote then you don't need other MJ votes.
@Duke of Bohol is trinbin' Gadabursi are eating good with Kulmiye.
Kulmiye banned any Cisse clan members from Djibouti to vote in Selel district during 2012 district elections. At same time Kulmiye opened the floodgates for Gadabursi from Ethiopia which contributed to Gadabursi winning the mayor-ship of Zeila and the vast majority of councilors in Selel.
This has pissed Arap because Cisse Warabe constituted a junior partner to Xaqsoor party, to make matter worse, Dolbahante, another junior partner of Xaqsoor party, vote overwhelmingly for Kulmiye switching alliance in support of the ruling party.
Xaqsoor, rightfully so, disputed election results and went to the streets to protest mismanagement of elections, police used excessive force and shoot dead several pro Xaqsoor supporters. This in a nutshell is the origin of Xaqsoor-Kulmiye beef.
Kulmiye banned any Cisse clan members from Djibouti to vote in Selel district during 2012 district elections. At same time Kulmiye opened the floodgates for Gadabursi from Ethiopia which contributed to Gadabursi winning the mayor-ship of Zeila and the vast majority of councilors in Selel.
This has pissed Arap because Cisse Warabe constituted a junior partner to Xaqsoor party, to make matter worse, Dolbahante, another junior partner of Xaqsoor party, vote overwhelmingly for Kulmiye switching alliance in support of the ruling party.
Xaqsoor, rightfully so, disputed election results and went to the streets to protest mismanagement of elections, police used excessive force and shoot dead several pro Xaqsoor supporters. This in a nutshell is the origin of Xaqsoor-Kulmiye beef.
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@Thegoodshepherd The Kikuyu and Kalenjin comparison doesn't work in this case because there is another major block which forms as the base for WADANI (Gadabursi), were's the Luo don't have another big ethnic group as their ally. In reality WADANI only needs CG + Arap + GD votes to win. GD is not a small clan but a major clan in the north. HY + GD + smaller clans votes is how Dahir Riyaale of UDUB defeated Siilanyo back in 2003.
HY & Gadabursi alone are around 35-40% of Somaliland. So to win WADANI only needs the CG and the smaller clans like Arap on their side same-way Kulmiye needs them.
KKKKKK in 2003 Sacad Muuse were split between Kulmiye and UDUB (they did not fully support Silanyo like they had in 2010) Cisse Muse has been in UCID camp under Cidagale.
In 2017 Suber Awal are firmly united behind Kulmiye along with Habar Jeclo, Dolbahante and a section of Gadabursi. WADANI will be buried alive.
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Bohol
VIP
KKKKKK in 2003 Sacad Muuse were split between Kulmiye and UDUB (they did not fully support Silanyo like they had in 2010) Cisse Muse has been in UCID camp under Cidagale.
In 2017 Suber Awal are firmly united behind Kulmiye along with Habar Jeclo, Dolbahante and a section of Gadabursi. WADANI will be buried alive.
In 2003 and 2010 Arap were in Kulmiye camp and Cidagale voted for UCID. Today we have both on board + majority of Gadabursi we are confident Kulmiye will be ku aseed as menace would say. WADANI is basically UDUB on steroids.
Bohol
VIP
If pigs could fly
You still peddle that lie like its established fact. CG have UCID why would they vote for party that offers them honorary positions instead of running for the top seat
Same reason Cisse Muuse gave up on Jamal Ali Hussien due to qabil.
Same reason Cisse Muuse gave up on Jamal Ali Hussien due to qabil.
Gave up on Jamal for who'm, Cirro?!?! Cisse Muuse are not fools they know Warabe will never compromise their monopoly on Berbera. Same goes for Bixi because Berbera corridor runs through Hargeisa to Wajaale and thus interwind with Berbera. Cirro would certainly offset the delicate power share structure in B town.
Bohol
VIP
As far as Cidagale are concerned, they spent millions to place Warabe in presidential race and got betrayed TWICE in favor of a non-Garhajis candidate (Kahin) if you think they will abandon UCID for Bubba, expired Dir-woqooyi from kounforia than you are sadly mistaken.
What could Wadani offer to reer Awdal? Gadabursi enjoy the 2nd highest position in Kulmiye government and for the first time become mayors of Selel, they will vote for K-party
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