In Gadabursi all you have to understand is they have a landheere community (MakahiilI don't think it is accurate to think of Gadabursi as a single body, they seem vote as subclans. I don't know enough about the clan dynamics in Somaliland to predict much, but if Kulmiye win again somaliland is basically a single party state for the foreseeable future.
@Thegoodshepherd The Kikuyu and Kalenjin comparison doesn't work in this case because there is another major block which forms as the base for WADANI (Gadabursi), were's the Luo don't have another big ethnic group as their ally. In reality WADANI only needs CG + Arap + GD votes to win. GD is not a small clan but a major clan in the north. HY + GD + smaller clans votes is how Dahir Riyaale of UDUB defeated Siilanyo back in 2003.
HY & Gadabursi alone are around 35-40% of Somaliland. So to win WADANI only needs the CG and the smaller clans like Arap on their side same-way Kulmiye needs them.
KKKKKK in 2003 Sacad Muuse were split between Kulmiye and UDUB (they did not fully support Silanyo like they had in 2010) Cisse Muse has been in UCID camp under Cidagale.
In 2017 Suber Awal are firmly united behind Kulmiye along with Habar Jeclo, Dolbahante and a section of Gadabursi. WADANI will be buried alive.
Same reason Cisse Muuse gave up on Jamal Ali Hussien due to qabil.
Gave up on Jamal for who'm, Cirro?!?! Cisse Muuse are not fools they know Warabe will never compromise their monopoly on Berbera. Same goes for Bixi because Berbera corridor runs through Hargeisa to Wajaale. Cirro would certainly offset the delicate power share structure in B town.
As far as Cidagale are concerned, they spent millions to place Warabe in presidential race and got betrayed TWICE in favor of a non-Garhajis candidate (Kahin) if you think they will abandon UCID for Bubba, expired Dir-woqooyi from kounforia than you are sadly mistaken.CM don't matter in this quota. WADANI only needs CG + Arap + GD votes to win.