It is not complicated at all. Ethiopia sees an opportunity to dismember the only state that can threaten its territorial integrity in the future. Compare the Somalia of today to the Somalia of 2003 or 2013 and the trend is clear, Somalia is slowly consolidating into a functional state. If this process continues, it could spell trouble for Ethiopia in the Somali Region.
I am surprised that Oromo are so eager to use the tools that kept them in submission for over 130 years. It seems that the only problem that Abiy, and other Oromo who believe in Ethiopian nationalism, had with the TPLF was the lack of Oromo in charge. They don't even want to democratize the country.
The critique that Oromo scholars have been pushing for over 50 years has been thrown aside e.g Gemechu Megersa arrested. It's just a bunch of evangelical Christians running the country as the new Amhara. Killing more Habesha in 5 years than all Oromo killed during Menelik's wars. No lessons learned.
Abiy has dismantled the TPLF's developmental state and replaced it with nothing. SOE privatization looms as he asks the IMF (literally satan) for help & advice post debt default, famine is back as a weapon, "liberation fronts" on the march once more, ethnic bushwhacking is so common that Oromo, Amhara and Debub fear driving in each other's state, Welkait is an unsolvable problem, Eritrea now borders Amhara (you can be sure Afwerki is arming them), Sudan is in freefall etc...
Abiy is not going to recognize Somaliland. This whole port/base thing is not serious, it is a distraction from the huge problems Ethiopia faces.
I am surprised that Oromo are so eager to use the tools that kept them in submission for over 130 years. It seems that the only problem that Abiy, and other Oromo who believe in Ethiopian nationalism, had with the TPLF was the lack of Oromo in charge. They don't even want to democratize the country.
The critique that Oromo scholars have been pushing for over 50 years has been thrown aside e.g Gemechu Megersa arrested. It's just a bunch of evangelical Christians running the country as the new Amhara. Killing more Habesha in 5 years than all Oromo killed during Menelik's wars. No lessons learned.
Abiy has dismantled the TPLF's developmental state and replaced it with nothing. SOE privatization looms as he asks the IMF (literally satan) for help & advice post debt default, famine is back as a weapon, "liberation fronts" on the march once more, ethnic bushwhacking is so common that Oromo, Amhara and Debub fear driving in each other's state, Welkait is an unsolvable problem, Eritrea now borders Amhara (you can be sure Afwerki is arming them), Sudan is in freefall etc...
Abiy is not going to recognize Somaliland. This whole port/base thing is not serious, it is a distraction from the huge problems Ethiopia faces.