Somalia National Transformation Plan (NTP) 2025-2029

[Barkhadle1520]

That report I read literally said, ‘While official trade statistics severely underestimate trade in Somalia’ and then immediately launched into baseless gymnastics and unrelated accusations to downplay it, which shows incredible bias.

You should make a thread on this and remittances

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[Idilinaa]

That report I read literally said, ‘While official trade statistics severely underestimate trade in Somalia’ and then immediately launched into baseless gymnastics and unrelated accusations to downplay it, which shows incredible bias.
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When I checked the footnotes to see what it was referring to, I found that a separate study had actually found Somalia’s cross-border trade to be 2–5 times higher than reported, and estimated it employs 10–30% of the total population.
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That same study stated: '' As such cross border trade strengthens economic resilience, alleviates poverty , contributes to the urbanization of the country with a strengthened presence of cities as important centers of trade along strategic corridors. Such trade provides food security for border regions."
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This shows that this so-called ‘invisible’ trade is driving real development the informal economy isn’t just survival-level; it’s stabilizing communities and actively building cities.

It also says:
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It also made me realize something else:
Because Somali businesses operate transnationally based both at home and abroad it likely means our trading partners are counting much of Somalia’s trade as their own. They don’t accurately track our side of the flows, so relying on their statistics creates a misleading picture where Somalia appears smaller on paper and our neighbors appear larger.

This cross-border trade volume and employment isn’t actually that surprising to me, because when I looked through the online business directory, I noticed just how many logistics and transport companies there are , they completely dominate in numbers above everything else:

Found this newly Somalia Business Directory although it is incomplete and large number of businesses/industries are left out of the listing, it shows you that hotels are a minority. The vast majority of industries and businesses are in diverse sectors.

Tourism and Hospitality is actually just logistic, airline/travel and cargo services when you click on it. The fact that there is so many of them 854 shows you that Somalia is essentially a regional trade hub, with large volume of travel and movement of goods. Somalia is clearly a transit corridor for goods across East Africa

Another thing is the sheer number of construction, energy and engineering companies 667 shows Somalia’s internal development.

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Somalis practically dominate logistics across the region, running some of the largest enterprises , Somalia has essentially become a key trade hub

 

[Idilinaa]

You should make a thread on this and remittances

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It’s the movement and transport of goods and services across borders , it’s literally part of Somalia’s export/import system. Not gonna lie, it’s almost like Somalis have translated their historical cross regional camel caravan trade that once connected/supplied towns and cities into a modern logistics setup, lmaoo.

I’m trying to collect enough examples, sources, data, and information so I can build a holistic, evidence based explanation of Somalia’s economy across various sectors.


I’ll release it once I’ve gathered enough to make it comprehensive.

 

[Midas]

This cross-border trade volume and employment isn’t actually that surprising to me, because when I looked through the online business directory, I noticed just how many logistics and transport companies there are , they completely dominate in numbers above everything else:





Somalis practically dominate logistics across the region, running some of the largest enterprises , Somalia has essentially become a key trade hub

I think while the presence of somalis in kenya and south africa is very well known. There is obviously a massive amount of buisness activity going on in places like rwanda/south sudan/zambia/Zimbabwe. That must be incredibly significant if you had the south sudan vice president talking with the somali buisness community in south sudan as well as that one Rwandan govt lady hereri interview.

 

[Midas]

Honestly the more I think about the more I'm surprised by how much I underestimated what these guys were upto in these other countries. They're obviously not some random low-levl street traders.

 

[Idilinaa]

It’s the movement and transport of goods and services across borders , it’s literally part of Somalia’s export/import system. Not gonna lie, it’s almost like Somalis have translated their historical cross regional camel caravan trade that once connected/supplied towns and cities into a modern logistics setup, lmaoo.

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I’m trying to collect enough examples, sources, data, and information so I can build a holistic, evidence based explanation of Somalia’s economy across various sectors.


I’ll release it once I’ve gathered enough to make it comprehensive.

Source from 2013. Profits for each of them are likely in the hundreds of millions now considering they own as many as 250 fleets and many of them diversify.

You can also see so many cargo and shipping companies and port management firms , they probably own warehouses , fleets, many containers as well

There is also the many owned Somali airlines that carry large cargos.

And now even Somali owned freight ships. Somali business men have purchased/own 6 of them to facilitate trade

I think while the presence of somalis in kenya and south africa is very well known. There is obviously a massive amount of buisness activity going on in places like rwanda/south sudan/zambia/Zimbabwe. That must be incredibly significant if you had the south sudan vice president talking with the somali buisness community in south sudan as well as that one Rwandan govt lady hereri interview.

It's a transnational business empire that all connects back to Somali territories. But it also gives them a degree of influence because East African political leaders see Somali business men as a source of investment capital into their country which they badly need, so they are all falling over them it seems to me.

I definitely think will see this in the next 5 years. But its funny how even somalis have no idea how much capital and assets somali buisnessman have becuase of how low-key they are.

The random Somali business man that owns like a large conglomerate or a prominent service and that potentially holds tens of even hundreds of millions of investment capital that i randomly come across is pretty crazy.

 

[Idilinaa]

Im pretty sure the Berbera fair was worth Ethiopia's annual gdp in 1900

The profit Berbera got from its port in the mid 1800s was tripple that, i remember i did calculations on it to figure out how much money it would be the equivalent of in todays value.

 

[Midas]

Source from 2013. Profits for each of them are likely in the hundreds of millions now considering they own as many as 250 fleets and many of them diversify.
View attachment 372967

You can also see so many cargo and shipping companies and port management firms , they probably own warehouses , fleets, many containers as well

View attachment 372968

View attachment 372969

There is also the many owned Somali airlines that carry large cargos.

And now even Somali owned freight ships. Somali business men have purchased/own 6 of them to facilitate trade



It's a transnational business empire that all connects back to Somali territories. But it also gives them a degree of influence because East African political leaders see Somali business men as a source of investment capital into their country which they badly need, so they are all falling over them it seems to me.




The random Somali business man that owns like a large conglomerate or a prominent service and that potentially holds tens of even hundreds of millions of investment capital that i randomly come across is pretty crazy.

Wow that's crazy 20 million annually in profit means they're probably making around a 100 million in revenue a year. Considering this is africa they must control a sizeable portion of the east african logistics

 

[Midas]

The profit Berbera got from its port in the mid 1800s was tripple that, i remember i did calculations on it to figure out how much money it would be the equivalent of in todays value.

I'm a little confused on where all the profit wmet since youd expect berbera to be bigger than what you see on the photos

 

[Idilinaa]

I'm a little confused on where all the profit wmet since youd expect berbera to be bigger than what you see on the photos

Berbera was a populated and well fortified town that had 5-6 towers armed with cannons pointing to the sea and guards with matchlocks, it was reported in 1801 by Ibrahim Punkar

and then a conflict/competition over trade access destroyed it and was deserted in the early 1800 before, then they resolved it by creating a sister port Bulaxaar and then Sharmarke took over it and re-activated the trade around early -mid 1800 , it quickly picked up activity and then the British came around and pretty much dismantled the trade when they created a blockade and transferred it over to Aden.

We discussed it before.

 

[Idilinaa]

Wow that's crazy 20 million annually in profit means they're probably making around a 100 million in revenue a year. Considering this is africa they must control a sizeable portion of the east african logistics

Yeah and it was reported in 2013. But there is also the cross border trade between Somali regions as well, which is the most significant.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

This cross-border trade volume and employment isn’t actually that surprising to me, because when I looked through the online business directory, I noticed just how many logistics and transport companies there are , they completely dominate in numbers above everything else:





Somalis practically dominate logistics across the region, running some of the largest enterprises , Somalia has essentially become a key trade hub

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[Midas]

Yeah and it was reported in 2013. But there is also the cross border trade between Somali regions as well, which is the most significant.

Damn I forgot that this was from 2013. I cant imagine how much larger its grown a 3-5 fold growth since then wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

Honestly the more I think about the more I'm surprised by how much I underestimated what these guys were upto in these other countries. They're obviously not some random low-levl street traders.

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[Barkhadle1520]

I'm a little confused on where all the profit wmet since youd expect berbera to be bigger than what you see on the photos

It was an annual fair means after the fair was over everyone packed their bags

 

[Midas]

I wish the academics behind the book "trade makes states " had done more research on how large the greater somali economy was.

 

[Midas]

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What's even more wild is that outside south africa those east african countries are doing the best. You even see the non east Africans on Twitter are shocked when they go to the east african capitals.

 

[Barkhadle1520]

What's even more wild is that outside south africa those east african countries are doing the best. You even see the non east Africans on Twitter are shocked when they go to the east african capitals.

I wouldnt say theyre doing the best but theres certainly an immense market there that can be taken advantage of and a sizable middle class, theres a somali lady that owns a big mall in Kampala

 

[Idilinaa]

Found a Kenyan-Somali transnational conglomerate called Shardi-Group.

This company owns large farmlands in Kenya and sells produce

Logistics

Even manfacture construction materials

There is this one as well which is logistics company

I can tell that some of them are pretty long running companies because they show up on a old Somali software company website from 2010

I wouldnt say theyre doing the best but theres certainly an immense market there that can be taken advantage of and a sizable middle class, theres a somali lady that owns a big mall in Kampala

She owns two big malls, large factories as well, various hardware enterprises and many properties under what is called Horyaal Investment Holding Company.

She definitely took advantage

 

[Idilinaa]

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It highways and more roads will just supercharge it, and imagine the airport, port upgrades as well that will be able to carry more traffic and cargo , with new locally owned freight ships.

In regards to fishing know i read a report from a few years ago that said for every 1 job at sea , 4 jobs are created on land when talking about fishing sector in Somalia. So it probably now is creating more jobs as industrial capacity increases. It's an employment multiplier effect. Imagine how many jobs has been or will be created like Processing & packaging, Cold storage and logistics, Boat maintenance, repair, and equipment supply, Marketing, sales, and export services, Local retail and food businesses supported by fishers’ income, .

Rising urban demand and exports means more value chain jobs are being created around each fisher, especially in processing and logistics hubs like Mogadishu, Bosaso, Berbera Hobyo and Kismayo.

If they are earning that much now imagine how much they will earn in the future.

There is a local company called Sommarine that manufactures a variety of fishing boats and even tourist boats which they recently shown off.

Sommarine Unveils Locally-Built Tourist Boat in Kismayo to Boost Jubbaland’s Blue Economy | Radio Kismaayo

radiokismayo.so

Some quite sizable , including 18-meter vessels and even 24-meter boats designed for deep-sea, long-haul fishing and industrial scale fishing.