Shabaab attacks Geriley, Gedo JL after ATMIS pullout

[bidenkulaha]

SNA repulse attack but sign of things to come as EU cut funding and ATMIS pullout gains pace


Arms embargo will be lifted, this is only the start with now another 3,000 leaving in September. The sort of incentive for the IC I mentioned as without SNA accessing heavy weaponry and aircraft they do not have enough troops to hold bases like Geriley

Without it we could see the quick collapse of JL and KG cities which are already under seige

 

[bidenkulaha]

 

[bidenkulaha]

Some officials, including Aden, say al-Shabab attacks in Kenya are an indication the group wants to continue fighting inside Kenya if defeated in Somalia.

“Yes, they could continue the war in Kenya if they are destroyed in Somalia,” he said.
“They will move to the [Boni] forest, the wetland along the coast on either side of the border. They want to keep hiding there and try to make a comeback, and attack areas seized from them, and to carry out ambushes and violence.”

Al-Shabab, an Islamist radical group, has been fighting for control of Somalia since 2007.

Kenya lawmaker Bashir Abdullahi who represents Mandera, a county that has seen increased al-Shabab activities, agrees the recent attacks can be attributed to the pressure the group faces inside Somalia from local fighters and the Somali government.

“They are sort of looking for an escape route or where to hide, and the place which is bordering happens to be Northeastern Kenya,” he said.

 

[bidenkulaha]

The deputy president of Jubaland, a region where Kenyan and Ethiopian troops operate, told VOA Somali that it will be “difficult” for Somali forces to secure areas being vacated by the AU troops.

“There is going to be a danger from there,” Mohamud Sayid Aden said Tuesday. “The enemy is going to get [an] advantage. The civilians who relied on the Somali and ATMIS forces will face revenge [from al-Shabab militants].


The AU has agreed with the Somali government to pull out another 3,000 troops by the end of September.

“It’s a plan not well-thought out, it’s hasty,” Aden said.

Aden called for the drawdown to be “paused and reviewed.”

But other Somali officials disagreed. Yasin Abdullahi Mohamud, known as Farey, is a member of the parliament, and the former director of the National Intelligence and Security Agency. He is currently among the officials mobilizing local forces against al-Shabab.

He said Somalis are grateful to the AU forces but the decision for the drawdown is not a hasty move.

“It’s the right time for the forces to leave,” he said. “It’s essential the national armed forces takeover responsibility of the security.”

Mohamud said ATMIS forces were not largely involved in the military operations against al-Shabab within the last year, and he asserted the time has come for Somali forces to step up.

 

[GemState]

Arms embargo will be lifted, this is only the start with now another 3,000 leaving in September. The sort of incentive for the IC I mentioned as without SNA accessing heavy weaponry and aircraft they do not have enough troops to hold bases like Geriley

Without it we could see the quick collapse of JL and KG cities which are already under seige

View attachment 281828

That map is wrong. It's more like this. But yeah, it's hard to see JL/KGS making any progress. The problem is for a lot of southern clans they have little incentive to get rid of Shabaab since their choice is either Shabaab and some measure of law and order, or the government which in practice means being ruled over by a Potemkin state and/or rival clan encroachment. No real ideological reasons like ASWJ

The FGS should push all it's funding and create tax incentives for any city near the Jubba river; create reasons for clans/militias to fight against AS. Use a carrot and stick approach and allow amnesty for AS leaders to surrender. That's probably go a long way. We just need to align incentives in the right way and most individuals would automatically turn into competent people carrying out policies because it benefits them directly.

 

[Gaandheri]

Why aren’t the UAE trained troops being deployed here or conscripted from gedo

 

[bidenkulaha]

That map is wrong. It's more like this. But yeah, it's hard to see JL/KGS making any progress. The problem is for a lot of southern clans they have little incentive to get rid of Shabaab since their choice is either Shabaab and some measure of law and order, or the government which in practice means being ruled over by a Potemkin state and/or rival clan encroachment.

The FGS should push all it's funding and create tax incentives for any city near the Jubba river; create reasons for clans/militias to fight against AS. Use a carrot and stick approach and allow amnesty for AS leaders to surrender. That's probably go a long way. We just need to align incentives in the right way and most individuals would automatically turn into competent people carrying out policies because it benefits them directly.


View attachment 281829

That Baydhabo to Xamar isn’t open like that. Neither is Afmadow to Kismayo. All the cities in KG are under siege except one, was listening to Laftagareen talk about it. Shabaab surrounds most of the Gedo degmos magaalad where Ethiopia is sat in bases holding them off. Bakool Kooke died on the route from Beledxaawo to Garbaharey, same one Shimbir took. It’s under Shabaab although they don’t stay there all the time. Shabaab also control 95% of Eastern Hiiraan. I’m not sure El Ali is free.

But Yh the original map might be a bit pessimistic.

You can also tell the one you provided is too optimistic as Shabaab are in Shabellaha Dhexe around Ceel Balcad, Ruunirgood. It’s why they’ve managed to stall the SNA and attack Galcad, Masagaway from behind so succesfully.

 

[Gaandheri]

That map is wrong. It's more like this. But yeah, it's hard to see JL/KGS making any progress. The problem is for a lot of southern clans they have little incentive to get rid of Shabaab since their choice is either Shabaab and some measure of law and order, or the government which in practice means being ruled over by a Potemkin state and/or rival clan encroachment. No real ideological reasons like ASWJ

The FGS should push all it's funding and create tax incentives for any city near the Jubba river; create reasons for clans/militias to fight against AS. Use a carrot and stick approach and allow amnesty for AS leaders to surrender. That's probably go a long way. We just need to align incentives in the right way and most individuals would automatically turn into competent people carrying out policies because it benefits them directly.


View attachment 281829

It’s not the clans it’s the politicians like Madobe who has been there for 13 years he fears if middle juba is freed he will be taken out. Madobe also refused macawisley to be formed in JL.

I don’t know about laftagareen but he’s been training a lot of troops and he has the Ethiopians so he might start an offense.

no one wants to get rid of AS bantus have been in Somalia for 15 years and haven’t done shit. Somalia also needs a lot of troops and they need to stop focusing on attacking AS from 1 region or 2 states but attack them everywhere so you deplete them of weapons and forces.

 

[bidenkulaha]

It’s not the clans it’s the politicians like Madobe who has been there for 13 years he fears if middle juba is freed he will be taken out. Madobe also refused macawisley to be formed in JL.

I don’t know about laftagareen but he’s been training a lot of troops and he has the Ethiopians so he might start an offense.

no one wants to get rid of AS bantus have been in Somalia for 15 years and haven’t done shit. Somalia also needs a lot of troops and they need to stop focusing on attacking AS from 1 region or 2 states but attack them everywhere so you deplete them of weapons and forces.

Incentives for some clans/politicians

• Isaaq/SL, stronger case for independence as claim the South is in turmoil.

• MJ, increase presence in FGS beyond their size as most of the Deep South is under Shabaab and also considered in turmoil therefore bigger economic pie too as this’ll increase use of ports

• HG, get to control Galmudug without having to worry about power sharing as you’ll be handpicking Murusade/Duduble/Waceysle given Shabaab situation. Also get to direct all Galmudug funding to HG land as 95% of the land not under Shabaab in the state is HG. Dominate hawiye politics given other big hawiye clans are under Shabaab or under threat of them. Also get to make a killing from Shabellaha Hoose.

• those in the FGS, use Shabaab against political opposition and also keep states weak and reliant on the FGS (airspace so cutting them off when they refuse orders and leaving them unable to travel similar to what just happened to Gedo, dependence on FGS funding as no real economy in Shabaab dominated states. Continue marginalisation of clans within the FGS as no threat from the

• JL, Madoobe gets to squat in Kismayo. Not having to worry about satisfying clans under Shabaab. No threat from MX as they have no route to Kismayo or Buale.


On my end I would hope HG politicians don’t see it like that, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Like @GemState says there needs to be an incentive. Hopefully 1m1v and devolution of powers helps us to create that as these clans under Shabaab might feel they have an avenue to controlling themselves and not by politicians/other clans leading these FMS states.

The big loser really is D&M. Ironic because they are the strongest infantry force in Shabaab. Continuous droughts and complete dependence in Xamar. Marginalised in FGS politics

 

[Gaandheri]

Incentives for some clans/politicians

• Isaaq/SL, stronger case for independence as claim the South is in turmoil.

• MJ, increase presence in FGS beyond their size as most of the Deep South is under Shabaab and also considered in turmoil therefore bigger economic pie too as this’ll increase use of ports

• HG, get to control Galmudug without having to worry about power sharing as you’ll be handpicking Murusade/Duduble/Waceysle given Shabaab situation. Also get to direct all Galmudug funding to HG land as 95% of the land not under Shabaab in the state is HG. Dominate hawiye politics given other big hawiye clans are under Shabaab or under threat of them. Also get to make a killing from Shabellaha Hoose.

• those in the FGS, use Shabaab against political opposition and also keep states weak and reliant on the FGS (airspace so cutting them off when they refuse orders and leaving them unable to travel similar to what just happened to Gedo, dependence on FGS funding as no real economy in Shabaab dominated states. Continue marginalisation of clans within the FGS as no threat from the

• JL, Madoobe gets to squat in Kismayo. Not having to worry about satisfying clans under Shabaab. No threat from MX as they have no route to Kismayo or Buale.


On my end I would hope HG politicians don’t see it like that, a rising tide lifts all boats.

Like @GemState says there needs to be an incentive. Hopefully 1m1v and devolution of powers helps us to create that as these clans under Shabaab might feel they have an avenue to controlling themselves and not by politicians/other clans leading these FMS states.

The big loser really is D&M. Ironic because they are the strongest infantry force in Shabaab. Continuous droughts and complete dependence in Xamar. Marginalised in FGS politics

What about after shabaab what clans or politicians benefits/looses.

 

[bidenkulaha]

What about after shabaab what clans or politicians benefits/looses.

All the ‘laandheere’ lose out and have to do some proper power sharing lol.

No more a qabiil 6-10% of the population taking 50%+ of power.

 

[Gaandheri]

All the ‘laandheere’ lose out and have to do some proper power sharing lol.

No more a qabiil 6-10% of the population taking 50%+ of power.

some loose more than others though, hawiye won’t loose much but isaaq, OG and MJ will. Rahanweyn, madowweyn will gain the most.

 

[bidenkulaha]

some loose more than others though, hawiye won’t loose much but isaaq, OG and MJ will. Rahanweyn, madowweyn will gain the most.

Yep. Hawiye have Xamar all that surrounds it South and north of it so the influence is mostly there and benefit. It’s just the hawiye dynamics within it will become different. Hg and Abgaal won’t have as strong a duopoly on it.

Isaaq OG mj are big losers tho in a fully liberated Somalia given Isaaq mj lose when the south is stronger and OG lose influence in a free JL.

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

Yep. Hawiye have Xamar all that surrounds it South and north of it so the influence is mostly there and benefit. It’s just the hawiye dynamics within it will become different. Hg and Abgaal won’t have as strong a duopoly on it.

Isaaq OG mj are big losers tho in a fully liberated Somalia given Isaaq mj lose when the south is stronger and OG lose influence in a free JL.

Kkk so, basically

Losers;

Issaq-

Under a free and safe Somalia, the political actors in Somaliland will lose their number one argument for independence and recognition.

Majerteen-

Under a Free and Safe South Somalia, the formerly promenint Majerteen clan will lose a large piece of their pie, they have feasted on their younger siblings down south's food for quite some time but under a free and prosperous Somalia every FMS will be getting the slice they DESERVE not the one they want.

Ogaden-

Under a free and safe Jubbaland the Ogaden clan which relied on a combination of masterful political manuvering and foreign alliances will have to toughen and step down from their postion as the sole recognized leaders of Jubbaland, they will face oppostion from the majority Marehan clan which during the AS era was unable to directly pentrate the heartland on the so called "Jubbaland Adminstation" and the city of Kismayo.

 

[Gaandheri]

Yep. Hawiye have Xamar all that surrounds it South and north of it so the influence is mostly there and benefit. It’s just the hawiye dynamics within it will become different. Hg and Abgaal won’t have as strong a duopoly on it.

Isaaq OG mj are big losers tho in a fully liberated Somalia given Isaaq mj lose when the south is stronger and OG lose influence in a free JL.

Exactly Hawiye being the majority clan won’t loose anything we will gain since most of our land will be free, isaaq won’t be able to seek independence in a free south, MJ will loose influence in the south, MX will gain more political influence in federal and regional level. OG won’t have influence in JL/Somalia due to free south and no kdf.

seems like history is repeating itself MX, MJ representing darod, Hiraab representing Hawiye, isaaq representing dir. these 4 clans will be the only ones contesting/becoming president/prime minister/vice president

 

[SPMLegend]

KDF Vacated the Base 3 Days ago and AS failed to overrun a small amount of JL troops stationed there. AS doesn’t want the borders open for this exact reason.

This Is Good for Jubbaland. Cabas Gurey will be more reliant on Madoobe. Jubbaland will train troops and send OG soldiers to secure the border area with Ceelwaaq.

 

[SPMLegend]

HAG was counting on dumping shabab into NFD Kenya once they got rid of them from their own deegaans in Galnus & Hirshabelle, but we are smarter than that. KDF will focus on securing the open border to prevent AS crossing & JL forces will continue their routine operations. The private Meeting between president Madoobe and Spy chief Nooradin Haji will soon bear its fruit

@bidenkulaha is happy to report Shabab attacks in JL to cope for the Phase 1 failures

 

[Jaale Ugaas]

HAG was counting on dumping shabab into NFD Kenya once they got rid of them from their own deegaans in Galnus & Hirshabelle, but we are smarter than that. KDF will focus on securing the open border to prevent AS crossing & JL forces will continue their routine operations. The private Meeting between president Madoobe and Spy chief Nooradin Haji will soon bear its fruit

@bidenkulaha is happy to report Shabab attacks in JL to cope for the Phase 1 failures

Say intelligence not Spy chief waarya.

You sound uneducated and like a child.

 

[SPMLegend]

Say intelligence not Spy chief waarya.

You sound uneducated and like a child.

Thanks for the English lesson

 

[bidenkulaha]

HAG was counting on dumping shabab into NFD Kenya once they got rid of them from their own deegaans in Galnus & Hirshabelle, but we are smarter than that. KDF will focus on securing the open border to prevent AS crossing & JL forces will continue their routine operations. The private Meeting between president Madoobe and Spy chief Nooradin Haji will soon bear its fruit

@bidenkulaha is happy to report Shabab attacks in JL to cope for the Phase 1 failures

This is one base, imagine when the big bulk cuts are coming to ATMIS in JL.

Most of the pull out was Burundi and a big Uganda base in jazeera.

I made the thread really for the Deputy JL President quotes but the attack was more interesting as a headline and knew it’d be more relevant to others than the words of Aden.

Sayid Aden says the agreed September pull out is rushed. JL is clearly not ready and doesn’t want Kenya to leave. But FGS wants to take over security and EU doesn’t want to pay for ATMIS.

Btw you’re showing your delusion. How can starting an offensive from Matabaan reaching all the way to Galcad be a failure. Next you’ll tell me in this coming phase capturing Ceelbuur is a failure