Ruto: If AU troops leave Al shabab will take over

[Garaad Awal]

They didn't support you when Al Shabab had full control of the south back in the 2000s, why would they do it if it happens again?

Al Shabaab isn’t the ICU and it wasn’t a real org untill after the invasion of 2006. The ICU was yes infiltrated by Al Qaeda (who would later become Shabaab) but it wasn’t an Al Qaeda Jihadist entity, it was more akin to a Talibanesque entity and yet the US approved Meles Zenawi’s invasion as this was the height of the “War on Terror” kicked off by George Bush Jr.

 

[Zak12]

Al Shabaab isn’t the ICU and it wasn’t a real org untill after the invasion of 2006. The ICU was yes infiltrated by Al Qaeda (who would later become Shabaab) but it wasn’t an Al Qaeda Jihadist entity, it was more akin to a Talibanesque entity and yet the US approved Meles Zenawi’s invasion as this was the height of the “War on Terror” kicked off by George Bush Jr.

No I was talking about the post invasion where Al Shabab more or less had total control of the south

 

[Garaad Awal]

nothing much would change when Atmis leaves, at most SNA gains from the offensive would be reversed. al shabab dont have the wide reaching support taliban did nor the numbers to even control and occupy all of the south even if they won against fgs, as much as you want and are hoping for this to happen it wont.

SNA isn’t a real coherent military organization. If 22k troops of the AU leave along with Western Special Forces/drones/Intel Orgs, you are finished. You have a less sophisticated army than the Afghan National Army, unorganized, beset with clan division/corruption, sna salaries even being paid on time sometimes can be an issue, and Somalian soldiers can never match the morale levels of the Kababist soldiers.

The Ethiopians & the Kenyan armies would refuse to leave tho for security reasons as they don’t trust Villa Somalia enough to defeat Shabaab. But even they might be forced to leave after while as the salaries of their soldiers are paid for by the Americans/EU.

 

[Aiman12]

SNA isn’t a real coherent military organization. If 22k troops of the AU leave along with Western Special Forces/drones/Intel Orgs, you are finished. You have a less sophisticated army than the Afghan National Army, unorganized, beset with clan division/corruption, sna salaries even being paid on time sometimes can be an issue, and Somalian soldiers can never match the morale levels of the Kababist soldiers.

The Ethiopians & the Kenyan armies would refuse to leave tho for security reasons as they don’t trust Villa Somalia enough to defeat Shabaab. But even they might be forced to leave after while as the salaries of their soldiers are paid for by the Americans/EU.

sna, as corrupt and dysfunctional as it is still holds of al shabab in the majority of the south and are the ones responsible for the major gains against them in 2022-2023. also i dont know where youre pulling 22k au troops from considering the recent drawdowns and sna hasnt been affected much by them. and even if western support leaves we still have Turkish drone support

 

[Zak12]

@Garaad Awal Taliban and Al Shabab are different from one key area: support. Al Shabab literally doesn't have the support of any single clan and instead relies on minorities. Taliban was the total opposite where they oppressed minorities but had the support of the largest and most powerful tribe, the Pashtun, which is equivalent to Darod and Hawiye supporting Al Shabab.

Despite the SNA also having weak support, Al Shabab is simply too evil and destructive as an ideology to garner any real support by other Somalis Taliban never declared world wide jihad like shabab did nor did they commit henious crimes against their own people like Mogadishu 2017 bombing. Qabils won't start jumping to Al Shabab's side like Afghan soldiers did and instead wi continue fighting them with or without government support like the Macawisley does

 

[World]

@Garaad Awal Taliban and Al Shabab are different from one key area: support. Al Shabab literally doesn't have the support of any single clan and instead relies on minorities. Taliban was the total opposite where they oppressed minorities but had the support of the largest and most powerful tribe, the Pashtun, which is equivalent to Darod and Hawiye supporting Al Shabab.

Despite the SNA also having weak support, Al Shabab is simply too evil and destructive as an ideology to garner any real support by other Somalis Taliban never declared world wide jihad like shabab did nor did they commit henious crimes against their own people like Mogadishu 2017 bombing. Qabils won't start jumping to Al Shabab's side like Afghan soldiers did and instead wi continue fighting them with or without government support like the Macawisley does

D&M, Murusade, Duduble, Gaaljecel, Bimal, Bantu will all support Al shabab. They have a strong base. If amisom left, then a lot of clans would switch sides to al shabab because they are opportunists and dont want to fight them. Everything south of gaalkacyo would capitulate to them within a few months, max a year i believe.

 

[zeilaprime]

It’s sink or swim time for the failed state! Does HSM want to be a refugee in Washington DC or remain in his homeland? Time to get serious and actually try to govern.

Lol who am I kidding? There’s no hope!

 

[Zak12]

D&M, Murusade, Duduble, Gaaljecel, Bimal, Bantu will all support Al shabab. They have a strong base. If amisom left, then a lot of clans would switch sides to al shabab because they are opportunists and dont want to fight them. Everything south of gaalkacyo would capitulate to them within a few months, max a year i believe.

A couple subclans support them yes, but none of the big five fully does. And hardly anyone will be switching sides because everyone hates Al Shabab

 

[World]

A couple subclans support them yes, but none of the big five fully does. And hardly anyone will be switching sides because everyone hates Al Shabab

Would you agree with my list though?

It doesn’t matter if everyone hates al shabab, would abgaal, marehan, ogaden, habar gidir, xawadle unite together to fight them under one banner? if they won’t then they don’t hate them enough.

So it will be al shabab vs marehan or al shabab vs abgaal not al shabab vs everyone that hates them. They won’t switch sides out of love but they will bend the knee.

 

[Nass010]

Only your typical under-25 qurbajoog nationalists believes there will be full united Somalian resistance against Al Kabaab.

The same Al Kabaab & ISIS who still tax traders & store owners a stone throw away from Villa Somalia. They are the shadow govt of your country. You are doomed

Even a broken clock is right twice a day... this crazy lunatics last paragraph is spot on.

 

[MG13]

Only your typical under-25 qurbajoog nationalists believes there will be full united Somalian resistance against Al Kabaab.

The same Al Kabaab & ISIS who still tax traders & store owners a stone throw away from Villa Somalia. They are the shadow govt of your country. You are doomed

For once, this joker is right

 

[Jungle]

D&M, Murusade, Duduble, Gaaljecel, Bimal, Bantu will all support Al shabab. They have a strong base. If amisom left, then a lot of clans would switch sides to al shabab because they are opportunists and dont want to fight them. Everything south of gaalkacyo would capitulate to them within a few months, max a year i believe.

You have no idea what you're talking about laangaab