TL;DR….Overall, however, al-Shabaab would be slightly militarily stronger because of its significant advantages across the non-material dimensions related to force employment, cohesion, and psychological operations, as well as the sustainability of its forces.
I think we can all agree that if all foreign forces leave it will be an Afghan style take over. Some think shabab isn’t as strong as the Taliban but they don’t need to be even close. Taliban was fighting USA and western forces while Shabab is fighting African troops.
Sna was so strong a town 30 km away from the capital was unreachable except by plane.2 years ago the SNA was strong.
Now it has been decimated by the damul jadiid.
This is the sad reality.
Lack of its own aviation capabilities has considerable implications for SNA’s ability to detect threats but also hinders its ability to project power and pursue retreating enemies effectively.