Puntland Vs Somaliland. Yubbe Analysis

DR OSMAN

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It's quite obvious Somaliland has pushed from Erigavo to Yubbe, which is similar to what they did in Sool pushing to Tukaraq. The distance between Yubbe and Erigavo is similar to Tukaraq to Garowe. It's totally a Warsangeli district. My analysis so far is Muse is scared of Caare gaining strength in Sanaag and destabilizing Somaliland. He has no way to attack Caare without turning the battle into Isaaq vs Isaaq which is the last thing he wants to do because he probably won't get the support from Somaliland community.

So my guess is he pushed into Yubbe, as he expects a Puntland response and now this gives him a justification to turn the battle into a PL VS SL while at the same time dealing with Caare without losing face with the Somaliland public. He wants a way to deal with Caare and he can't do that without making the war seem like a PL/SL thing.

The question is should Puntland bite back? All Puntlanders need to comment about this. What is the best response?
 

DR OSMAN

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Should we send Caare and tell him you go into Yubbe and Fight Muse? Therefore crumbling Muse plan to make the battle appear to be PL VS SL and then it will be Isaaq vs Isaaq which will cause uproars in Hargeisa and Burco and Isaaq to split into Garhajis vs Jeegaan? You guys need to add some policy advice to this becuz the last thing we want is the battle to be PL VS SL.

Besides @Suldaanka who are the soldiers in Yubbe are they Isaaq or Warsangeli stooge men? If it's Warsangeli Stooge-men on the front line with Isaaq Re-inforcement like they do in Sool. The best response is to break the Warsangeli front-line and Send in Caare to deal with the HY reinforcement and warn them HY ayaa ku wada dhimanayo meesha not Sacad Muse which is the plan of Muse Bihi. To destroy HY with HY. Using his HY on the payroll while PL uses Caare. This will cause a a huge blood-bath primarily within HY.
 

DR OSMAN

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They will n they won't i am guessin

Puntland needs Caare and Caare needs Puntland. It's a good working relationship so far. Caare is un-happy with how jeegaan is treating his clan and puntland is unhappy with Somaliland creating and supplying galgala through erigavo. It's in our interest to get Caare power over the Sanaag Region in order to curb and stop the supply line of Galgala Terrorists who are primarily Isaaq from Sanaag.

This is in Puntland security interest but this curve ball(jambal) that he has thrown at Yubbe requires analysis and response plans with as least blood shed as possible. We want to achieve our objective for Puntland and secure Sanaag and ensure we have a pro puntland governor Controlling Erigavo. This will end the instability in Bosaso.

We can then work slowly on the Sool matter which is also critical especially with @Juuqbuuqluuq @World which will require reconciliation within Dhulbahante first.
 

DR OSMAN

AF NAAREED
VIP
So now it is hy vs hy but either case the fool mb is doomed

We want Muse in Talks with Caare and Puntland. The only thing PL wants in my opinion is to ensure Erigavo is run by a Pro Puntland Governor and the Security sector of Sanaag is controlled by Caare or at the very least overseen by him so Puntland can colloborate with SL about galgala logistic supplies coming from Erigavo(we have strong intelligence sector in PL, we know what's going on). This currently isn't possible with the current security configuration run by a Jeegaan who are not cooperative with Puntland and seem to support the galgala terrorists.

What 'Caare' wants from Muse Bihi, I think is the same. This will be win win situation for Caare and Puntland achieving their shared objective. We would have secured Bari stability and flushed out the terrorists from Galgala while Caare gets Erigavo and control of Somaliland Sanaag security.
 
Puntland needs Caare and Caare needs Puntland. It's a good working relationship so far. Caare is un-happy with how jeegaan is treating his clan and puntland is unhappy with Somaliland creating and supplying galgala through erigavo. It's in our interest to get Caare power over the Sanaag Region in order to curb and stop the supply line of Galgala Terrorists who are primarily Isaaq from Sanaag.

This is in Puntland security interest but this curve ball(jambal) that he has thrown at Yubbe requires analysis and response plans with as least blood shed as possible. We want to achieve our objective for Puntland and secure Sanaag and ensure we have a pro puntland governor Controlling Erigavo. This will end the instability in Bosaso.

We can then work slowly on the Sool matter which is also critical especially with @Juuqbuuqluuq @World which will require reconciliation within Dhulbahante first.
Sounds good
 
We want Muse in Talks with Caare and Puntland. The only thing PL wants in my opinion is to ensure Erigavo is run by a Pro Puntland Governor and the Security sector of Sanaag is controlled by Caare or at the very least overseen by him so Puntland can colloborate with SL about galgala logistic supplies coming from Erigavo(we have strong intelligence sector in PL, we know what's going on). This currently isn't possible with the current security configuration run by a Jeegaan who are not cooperative with Puntland and seem to support the galgala terrorists.

What 'Caare' wants from Muse Bihi, I think is the same. This will be win win situation for Caare and Puntland achieving their shared objective. We would have secured Bari stability and flushed out the terrorists from Galgala while Caare gets Erigavo and control of Somaliland Sanaag security.
Exactly
 

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