Puntland Economic Reformation

[DR OSMAN]

Puntland has around an estimated 2 billion GDP. Per capita for a population of 4 million that is quite low and at $500-600 per person yearly. How do we improve this? What level of GDP do we want to reach? Let's cover the areas of GDP that is lifeline

1. Products
2. Goods
3. Services
4. Construction
5. Agriculture/Fishery/Livestock/Frankincense
6. Tourism

The only GDP that is active in Puntland right now is Agriculture/Fishery/Livestock and imported products/goods.

By implementing a bank and having investors involved, we could aim for 'two things'? Increase purchasing of cars and home ownership. Per person a 5k vehicle and 50k home x 50000 per year of residential construction will lead to an increase of 2.5 billion just for the housing industry. Imagine that a stable 2.5 billion each year added to our GDP just thru a govt policy that 'regulates' companies to abide the PL worker laws so we can see thru this housing and vehicle ownership vision.

Just thru purchasing vehicles worth $5000 x 50000 people each year will give us a nice $250 million goods added to our economy. The two largest 'products' in any economy is 'vehicle/home' and without having a govt interfere in the market place and set down laws to ensure this is achieved, our GDP will never be realized.

How can we do this? well this requires 'investors' there is no doubt. Especially local/diaspora/foreign who are told to invest into industries that PL sees good potential 'mass employment' because the 'key' is employment and with employment what can come is a eventually 'bank loan' and thru a bank loan comes 'property' purchase and through this you now have a 'booming construction industry' that will also generate more work for engineers/labourers/electricians/plumbers so our 'service industry' automatically gets a nice 'boost' without doing much.

Not to mention furniture companies increasing products as new homes new furniture. TVS will also be another company to benefit from home ownership economic policy by puntland. Same with Electricity/Water companies will continously expand with a housing vision economy which means more jobs

If we can add 2.5 billion a year to our GDP just thru house purchasing and 250 million thru vehicle purchases from a pool of 50,000 newly 'employed' puntites each year, this a great start and we can 'gradually' increase the 'housing target' as we find more industries that gives mass employment. The service sector is a quite important one. We should encourage our locals who are not interested in studying to become 'business owners' and provide them with business training especially around the 'restaurants, cafe, shops, etc' and then tell them to 'secure loans' from the bank to begin the business.

This sector could also return nice 'GDP' returns especially if the market is starting to have more 'workers' which also means more 'spending'. The service sector usually grows as a response to a growing working market and thus employees having an income is paramount and thus finding industries to employ workers first should be our first goal.

The thing to note is if you do not have a govt intervention on 'salaries' it will be hard to create service industries as the workers will not use them due to lack of money so you could potentially be losing a 'large' sector of prospective business owners and mass employment of locals if something isn't done about GOVT intervention into the market place.

So yes the service sector compliments a 'working economy' but it isn't the 'root' of the economy rather it's the 'side'.

We already do livestock/fishery/farming, we need to 'increase production' by cutting down on 'time' here thru the use of 'machinery'. The manual method is just pathetic, we should only allocate puntites to this job who are not the 'brightest' in the land so at least they are being 'productive' and producing something even though it's not going to add to our 'gdp' sector very much as the 'product' itself is not an expensive item and therefore it's value ratio to GDP will not be like a house or car or any of that. If anything 'fishery/livestock' are good 'gdp drivers' but 'agriculture' isn't unfortunately.

Tourism is self explanatory as to the benefit to the economy, you bring in more people, you create more 'demand' for your markets and therefore more production and over-all more jobs start to develop. This is an important industry in it's own right. A-lot of Somalis think GDP means 'factories' and selling overseas, well u can do that but u also have a world-wide market to compete with. Where-as an internal focused economy has the benefit of 'restricting' world wide competitors and only bringing in 'investors' on a need to need basis when diaspora/local cannot create jobs.

Oil/Mining is ok but it won't create 'mass employment' the govt will get wealthy though due to the 50/50 revenue sharing ratios but unless the govt knows what to do with those revenues and where to inject it to create more industries, it's not going to be beneficial. It may lead to a few rich who are in the govt and possibly top 1% of elites however as we spoken about that before u can't create an economy thru 1% of the population, 80% of the population is where the economy created not from the lowest 10% nor the highest 10% but the ones who sit in the 'middle' of that is the 'engine' of a market place and what creates jobs eventually.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Most of the economy is centered around homes. Not just construction but furniture companies depend on people having homes. Bed companies. Kitchen companies, electricians, water companies. U generate nearly most of our economy just thru having a housing economic policy.

Not to mention food is linked to having a house first and then fridge companies. By having this 'core economic policy' for homes you have nearly generated your whole economy thru 'value adds' what u say puntites. The only challenge that awaits us is how do we get these 50,000 people employed and what industries?

PL market policy should be centered around creating a middle class which means home owners as this will drive nearly every business to begin 'service' industry such as plumbers, electricians, furniture companies, bedding companies, kitchen companies, electricity and water companies expand. Window companies. The value added thru this even expands to smallest thing like 'screws, locks, doors, floors' so many value added companies develop and thus more employment happens indirectly thru a housing vision.

My puntland campaign slogan will be 'guri iyo qoys' lol it will be region wide policy. Where is Teeri Alpha the Absame Economist to review my economic vision

 

[DR OSMAN]

We have nearly 4 million people in PL. The engine is 18-65 segment. Now obviously we need the ministry of health to do it's job to ensure our worker pool have a life-span that is attractive to investors in the first place.

That include 'sanitation policy' of all urban areas, quality standards on the food, immunisation of children to prevent early death, creating a medical insurance scheme so people can afford local doctors and surgeries. These areas are an absolute must to increase life-spans so companies can get good 'returns' on a long working life and not a short one.

But that 18-65 segment need to be employed. The govt needs to set the worker and business code on their relationship, salaries and conditions. Conditions is important because we will end up 'losing' our people in harsh conditions of employment as that itself is a health hazard and can impact on the lifespan of people and we want to retain them so they can pass on their experience to the next generation.

We need to set 'realistic' work hours based on the 'culture and weather' there so we can guarantee companies that 'production' will not be impacted. Companies need to work within the culture and weather conditions to ensure they get their 'production' levels out of the employee and this can mean 8 hour days continous or 4 hour morning 4 hour evening, or night work only.

Where are u Teeri let's go a few rounds with the Mad Doctor

 

[DR OSMAN]

@Prime Minister this type of debate only 'teeri' has a grasp of where-as other Somalis do not know about GDP and where to 'target' investors. We need two different policies around urban and rural puntites.

It's ok to target investors into rural areas to create jobs thru farming-livestock-fishery but this isn't going to answer our urban population needs beyond 'small traders' who sell those produces.

We still have an economy that hasn't developed and is still tied to the rural areas and our urban areas are lacking any mass employment industry. The urban areas need industries and it's our leaders who need to look at the urban areas and what sort of industry will create thousands of employment.

Manufacturing they say is a good one but there is no point if it doesn't lead to home-ownership targets each year or else our GDP will not grow on a large scale. This is where it's critical we have 'tariffs' on foreign products so it forces local production and to lift those tariffs at later time so a monopoly doesn't emerge and local and foreign products can compete.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Teeri Alpha needs to return to the spot. God dammit. PL economy needs to break up our population into 'segments' such as urban and rural and also skilled and unskilled population.

We need to know how much unskilled people exist in comparison to skilled people. I know for example 'waiters' in Garowe earn $10 a day, I am not sure what 'labourers' earn or 'cleaners'.

We need to know this so we can baseline what is the lowest worker income in PL. From there we can find out what skilled population earn such as govt employees, professionals, plumbers, electricians, mechanics. I know we have 'larg e pool of professionals and that industry is very 'small'.

How this grows in my opinion will be linked to how the over all GDP grows in goods-products-service sector being mandatory in growth because professionals rely on these industries to be strong and it needs to be 'strong' before a professional sector develops.

However it would be interesting to know what the market rates are for skilled plumbers-electricians-mechanics and other technical work since this requires a skill unlike waiter or cleaner or something like that. I think it would be quite lucrative because they're is less suppliers doing it and therefore monopoly rates are bound to begin, monopoly rates are only stopped thru competition because it then becomes a 'market' rate meaning two companies are pricing now according to what other businesses are pricing lol and not inflating it because they know you have no other way out.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Somalis you don't understand economics as you follow @Cognitivedissonance and @Inquisitive_ mythology ignoring the fundamentals. I will give u an example. One walmart or one coles in Australia in a small 'area' of one city, has more products and goods then 'mogadishu' combined.

Why is that? think about it, all those small 'stores' you see in Mogadishu, isku wada 'dar' alaabta taal and you will see it's not even equivalent of 'one suburb products/goods in america or australia'.

Why? there is a clear economical differences that's why, this guy in Mogadishu is a naflacari in his pocket and this will lead to less products/goods because u won't produce something when there is no demand or puchasing power. Therefore less money will be available to ensure inflation doesn't increase or misrepresent the 'market' value.

As I preach constantly you need to change the 'tayo' of our people as a whole not their 'tiro' lol, tiro aan tayo lahayn is pointless it's like the arab world who number 300 million yet 5 million jews are wealthier, militarily stronger, and has a higher intelligence per person then anything in the arab world. U wud need to bring 10 arabs to match 1 jew in any measurement. The reason is most likely 'religion' as these societies are overly religious while Israel isn't.

For example Holland who has small land with just two farm lands can produce more then south somalia in just one 'month' then they can in a whole 'year' while having larger land? dee 'isku tayo ma aha' is the only answer. Tiro or Large land don't mean shit if each person is a naflacari. Naflacari vs Tayo well we know who will win that battle on all fronts.

Stop blaming conspiracies waryaa and 'fiat' money and all this nonsense, the fact stands there is more products/goods in one suburb in one city of america or australia then your god damn 'capital' city.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Imagine this scenario. Just imagine we relocated all the goods/products/services that exist in say 'minneapolis' to Somalia. Even if they all came together as Somalis wouldn't be able to 'consume' this in a year, it would take them maybe 10 years to match the consumption level of just minneapolis. Waryaadaheen yaan been laysku sheegin, the worst faqri is not just the one of less resources, the faqri of the mind is even worse since u will never be able to change this dilemma and remain faqri forever.

At least being 'faqri' like Rwanda but having a 'rich mind' can change their situation, how-ever with Somalis u love to blame others for your problems or u will find ways to 'create conspiracy' about the success of another nation and that's what is called 'faqri of the mind' his situation will never change since he hasn't accepted the situation.

Like @Galmudug-State he will create all sorts of conspiracies to 'play down PL success' in relative to the south-central, so that is a state of 'faqri of the mind', he will remain in that GALMUDUG status forever cause he hasn't accepted things have to change not sit there and create conspiracies about the PL success story.

I mean the most hope Somalis have is to 'suck of oil' and be given 'financial grants' by the govt, it's typical that no 'innovation' exists and 'reliance' is still paramount. I mean u want to 'fuel' the western world with oil, while u sit back and take a 'check' from it because u know deep down they are 'smarter' then you which shows 'faqri of the mind'.

 

[DR OSMAN]

Teeri Alpha where are you, hiding out or did he leave the spot? we have furious economic debates, without Teeri, no-one can hang with the doctor.

An economy is defined by production/consumption and labour involved of goods or services. In an ideal situation, these areas need to increase. The instruments to increase this are defined as

1. FDI
2. Banking

Teeri argues for FDI without explaining the benefits to be gained in comparison to banking method. FDI means another nations 'money' being dumped into your country to create products/goods/services either for local consumption or overseas consumption.

FDI leads to more jobs and business taxation stream for the govt, but the wealth isn't classified for your country GDP, it's classified for the investor nation, except what you gain from worker salaries and taxation, the rest is foreign ownership. FDI also 99% of the time will use their country of origin supply chain for parts, materials, high end skill jobs, etc rather then the local market it operates. U see this with Turkey which is doing FDI but ensuring most of it's all imported from turkey.

The reason for this is to create 'wealth' for turks in turkey thru the use of your market place. The benefits of FDI in Somalia are not attractive since their isn't a strong local market to keep it competitive, hence they will price workers to th lowest denominator based on market conditions. FDI is heathy once your market has matured only as this creates a 'market rate' that is beneficial for the govt and workers and can lead to more business activity.

Banking however is the best solution to execute or wealth. Any country without banking, doesn't have an economy, it's as simple as that. They rely on money from other countries flowing into their nation and use that to create a market from. Those money's also originate from those nations banks, so u r in all honesty creating more 'borrowing and lending' to happen in their banks and fuelling their growth while they make you fight over their money in your market place cause u have no banks to fuel your growth.

Banks leads to borrowing and interests need to be controlled by the govt as instrument to lower and higher based on market conditions and govt policy. If u want more borrowing to happen, lowering interest supports that. It allow more people to take advantage of a loan they can pay of quicker. Will this mean 'big profits' for banks no it won't. They will need to cover the customary 'inflation' rate of the market without a doubt and a small 'percentage of profit' but in the early stages of banking, u want to bring in customers and therefore lowering initially is important.

The biggest job generator is thru loans to people to start their own companies. The biggest job generator isn't FDI, since FDI is revolved around an industry, where-as banking revolves aroun fuelling every industry with growth. Giving a million loan for a business idea leads to a person creating a business and securing a market either locally or globally, if u do this across thousands or millions of people, u will automatically be a rich country and as time goes on u will a net effect of job growth all fuelled by your own banks not another country bank or their business people.

This will lead to your market growing strong with jobs, trade, consumption, and production u will eventually start to expand regionally and globally to secure new markets. But your banking sector is the fuel for this, without it, you will be limited to charity and FDI at best.

We need other govt instruments on banking like 'mortage' the first thing u want to 'fuel' from workers is buying property so your bank has to have 'business loans and mortgages' as their primary function, as it grows into a wealthy bank, it can also add other banking features such as investment banking but that can not develop till the banks become so wealthy and complex, it will require 'experts' in the field to develop to provide advice aroun the banking system.

I am big proponent as Teeri knows of banking, we have wealthy people, we need to bring them together and pool cash and target creating new business people and thru new business people will come new workers and thru new workers will come mortgage purchasing. U just fuelled job growth and house growth at the same time thru banking and obviously taxation growth.

The govt can focus on 'training and skills side' of the people so their job ready for the industries to be created thru banking loans. The govt can focus on securing bi-lateral trade deals for market places that our businesses want to target. The govt can focus on ensuring a 'labour law' exist so it leads to housing boom as this must be critical component of the govt economic vision to create a middle class.

Other areas the govt need to ensure is stability politically and thru the judiciary. That has always been my economic vision and I stand by it like a soldier because I can envision how it different actors within the economy bank-investor-worker-market come together to start producing.

What will be produced needs the govt to develop 'industry target' plan growth on how many businesses we want in that section, who will it service local or global markets, how many employees can it generate? it needs to do this across the whole economy to name which sector are ripe for growth and begin identifying these areas to investors.

We also need to 're-vamp' the economy of Somalia it's not just having businessses exist, we need to teach them how to work quick and fast thru training skills provided using other markets like china as a guide on how to speed up production and work force either thru technology, machinery, or thru training of 'skills'.

Where are you Teeri the Absame economist, tell me this 'economic vision' wrong, I dare you waryaa!!!!

 

[𐒁𐒚𐒒𐒂𐒘𐒂𐒗 𐒎𐒚𐒗𐒗𐒒]

I think Teeri might have a new name? @Farjano-Walad