Professor Xaaji Ingiriis: Muqdisho may fall this year like Kabul.

[Calaami]

What he says couldn’t be further from the truth.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

@TekNiKo stop pushing this narrative, shabaab is way weaker than Taliban, if they could take over xamar they would have done it 14 years ago when the government was much weaker. this dude is no professor. You did not respond to my reply on the other post either

Prof ingriss seems to be not aware what's happening now in the country. Al Shabab is nowhere near of taking the capital since there's no siege to capital or any major movement from the group towards urban large cities in southern Somalia that threatens to bring those local govt down thus a threat to the governing system in Xamar there's no such thing in Somalia currently but the opposite is happening where HSM launch of major offensive military operation against AS threatens the group survivability and authority in the country and the bomb today is there angry response to that.

The military balance between the FGS and Alshabab has remained largely unchanged over the past decade. The FGS will sometimes push back the khawarij, but they then wait and slowly regain the lost territory.

Alshabab have willingly withdrawn from ~20% of the territory they held in 2012 and have repositioned themselves to best be able to tax and maneuver. The greatest hoax HSM and Farmaajo pulled was to convince people that Somalia was making progress against Alshabab.

The situation is as bad as 2012, if not worse given Alshabab's growing ability to tax all economic activity south of Galgaduud.

 

[Prince of HS]

The military balance between the FGS and Alshabab has remained largely unchanged over the past decade. The FGS will sometimes push back the khawarij, but they then wait and slowly regain the lost territory.

Alshabab have willingly withdrawn from ~20% of the territory they held in 2012 and have repositioned themselves to best be able to tax and maneuver. The greatest hoax HSM and Farmaajo pulled was to convince people that Somalia was making progress against Alshabab.

The situation is as bad as 2012, if not worse given Alshabab's growing ability to tax all economic activity south of Galgaduud.

Wrong. The amount of pressure being put against AS recently has not been seen for the past decade (since battle of Mogadishu 2011). There is actually genuine hope AS will lose their lands in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The ideological and financial war I admit has a long way to go due to the brainwashing and fear they installed on the local populations. But military, the end of AS in south central Somalia is very near.

 

[TekNiKo]

The military balance between the FGS and Alshabab has remained largely unchanged over the past decade. The FGS will sometimes push back the khawarij, but they then wait and slowly regain the lost territory.

Alshabab have willingly withdrawn from ~20% of the territory they held in 2012 and have repositioned themselves to best be able to tax and maneuver. The greatest hoax HSM and Farmaajo pulled was to convince people that Somalia was making progress against Alshabab.

The situation is as bad as 2012, if not worse given Alshabab's growing ability to tax all economic activity south of Galgaduud.

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[GeesiSomali]

No question Farmaajo didn't do shit about kebab and so far HSM is doing much better when it comes to capturing land. Let's try to be honest in our FKD akhis. The problem is the lack of intelligence, security forces easily getting bribed, kebab amniyat deep in Xamar etc. These terrorist have better intelligence than FGS unfortunately. The other big problem is somalis are not nationalists. Iranians hate their mullahs but will pick up a rifle and defend their country if Israel attacked today

Mashallah. The first rationale comment in this thread. You are right. We are very divided and lack the national cohesion that many countries have.
This was not always the case, I use to hear stories from my father about how much Somali people loved each other prior to the civil war. It is just sad that current state of our nation.

 

[Rocktheboat]

Wrong. The amount of pressure being put against AS recently has not been seen for the past decade (since battle of Mogadishu 2011). There is actually genuine hope AS will lose their lands in Hirshabelle and Galmudug. The ideological and financial war I admit has a long way to go due to the brainwashing and fear they installed on the local populations. But military, the end of AS in south central Somalia is very near.

You have people in the diaspora raising money to send back home to people in Hiraan as well. I have never heard of that

 

[Strawberry]

@cow terrorist Madoobe is jubiliating and bragging about his terrorist past

 

[JaredAbdullahiKushner2000]

The military balance between the FGS and Alshabab has remained largely unchanged over the past decade. The FGS will sometimes push back the khawarij, but they then wait and slowly regain the lost territory.

Alshabab have willingly withdrawn from ~20% of the territory they held in 2012 and have repositioned themselves to best be able to tax and maneuver. The greatest hoax HSM and Farmaajo pulled was to convince people that Somalia was making progress against Alshabab.

The situation is as bad as 2012, if not worse given Alshabab's growing ability to tax all economic activity south of Galgaduud.

Well its a stalemate then but its clear that the fgs is stronger but not strong enough and resourceful enough to hold on to the places they capture. Best strategy then is to weaken them and create a buffer zone. HSM also has a good plan to strengthen financial institution and introduce ID to isolate shabaab financially.

 

[Laagite]

@cow terrorist Madoobe is jubiliating and bragging about his terrorist past

AS have killed many Somalis and calls the blood spilling halal they lost what little support they had when they started targeting civilian gatherings under the pretense of fighting gaals whom ironically live in the greenzone and have never been targeted.



Compared to them Talibans appeals itself as an Islamic Pashtun Nationalist organization, they promote Pashtun culture and identity even splintered from mainstream Arabic AQ establishing themselves as a local force unlike the global jihadists like AS.

 

[Thegoodshepherd]

Well its a stalemate then but its clear that the fgs is stronger but not strong enough and resourceful enough to hold on to the places they capture. Best strategy then is to weaken them and create a buffer zone. HSM also has a good plan to strengthen financial institution and introduce ID to isolate shabaab financially.

I strongly disagree. The FGS appears to be stronger only because there are 21,000 AU troops maintaining the gains made prior to 2012. In reality, the FGS is much weaker than the khawarij.

Uganda alone has nearly 7,000 troops in Lower Shabelle.

 

[Dalalos_ibn_Adali]

HSM needs to make this liibaax the head of the SNA

 

[TekNiKo]

 

[Prince of HS]

All the warsangeli AB pro ‘AS’ macawiisley you posted few weeks back all defected to the goverment and were forced by AS to fight This AS igu sawir is all cap besides from gaaljecel