PM has been sworn in after he wins vote of no confidence with 231 votes

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Ranked by percent chance:
1- An agreement on process of federalization and finalization of the constitution 80%
2- Al-shabbab reduced from all major cities 50%
3-One man - one vote 2020 30%
4- Al-shabbab reduced from all major highways 5%

You don't believe he can create a semi competent SNA in his tenure? Could you please share your reasoning sxb?
 
Ranked by percent chance:
1- An agreement on process of federalization and finalization of the constitution 80%
2- Al-shabbab reduced from all major cities 50%
3-One man - one vote 2020 30%
4- Al-shabbab reduced from all major highways 5%

We need answers for your answers. Explain yourself, oh wise one
 

Thegoodshepherd

Galkacyo iyo Calula dhexdood
VIP
Federalization is easy because parliament just have to pass a new constitution, it can be done by next February. Taking major towns like Buaale, Jilib and Jamame will be possible if the SNA and Jubaland forces are paid on time and receive the arms they need. A vote is unlikely to take place because it requires the two things above to happen first, it is an outcome that is contingent on other outcome. Alshabab will not be eradicated in 4 years and even by 2020 travelling from Mogadishu to Baydhabo or Kismayo will not be safe as they resort to hit and run tactics.
The federal government is very weak and needs some kind of consensus among the federal states to function, it will slow going for the foreseeable future.
 
Federalization is easy because parliament just have to pass a new constitution, it can be done by next February. Taking major towns like Buaale, Jilib and Jamame will be possible if the SNA and Jubaland forces are paid on time and receive the arms they need. A vote is unlikely to take place because it requires the two things above to happen first, it is an outcome that is contingent on other outcome. Alshabab will not be eradicated in 4 years and even by 2020 travelling from Mogadishu to Baydhabo or Kismayo will not be safe as they resort to hit and run tactics.
The federal government is very weak and needs some kind of consensus among the federal states to function, it will slow going for the foreseeable future.

Disagree on the one-vote though. It will not be full sufferage but will happen in the areas that safe enough for an election, and will exclude parts of SL.

But you're right Al-shabbab will first be gone in a decade
 
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