Many people think that Ethiopia will disintegrate as a result of the ongoing Tigray conflict, I think this will never happen for the following reasons:
1) Somalia is a perfect example of what could happen to Ethiopia in the worst case scenario for them, some areas Ethiopia may declare independence without being recognized like Somaliland did. The Rest of the country would have some kind of weak provisional government but the international community will never recognize border changes as a result of a war. Those times are over and ended in the 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet union
2) Ethiopia still has some kind of functioning government, the TPLF isn't as stupid ad the somali rebel movement who started to destroy their own country after they defeated Siad Barre. Tplf had experience with ruling a country, if they take Addis they will probably find a solution to keep Ethiopia together.
3) the only faction Ethiopia that genuinely wants independence is the somali region. Somalis in Ethiopia don't want to rule others, they just want to mind their own business. On the other hand amharas, tigray and oromos want to take all of Ethiopia and rule it. This means they will try to avoid separatism. If we look at somalia's case the USC, SNM and to some extent the SSDF had zero interest in ruling the whole of Somalia, they wanted their qabil to be powerful but they never had a plan to keep somalia under their rule.
1) Somalia is a perfect example of what could happen to Ethiopia in the worst case scenario for them, some areas Ethiopia may declare independence without being recognized like Somaliland did. The Rest of the country would have some kind of weak provisional government but the international community will never recognize border changes as a result of a war. Those times are over and ended in the 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet union
2) Ethiopia still has some kind of functioning government, the TPLF isn't as stupid ad the somali rebel movement who started to destroy their own country after they defeated Siad Barre. Tplf had experience with ruling a country, if they take Addis they will probably find a solution to keep Ethiopia together.
3) the only faction Ethiopia that genuinely wants independence is the somali region. Somalis in Ethiopia don't want to rule others, they just want to mind their own business. On the other hand amharas, tigray and oromos want to take all of Ethiopia and rule it. This means they will try to avoid separatism. If we look at somalia's case the USC, SNM and to some extent the SSDF had zero interest in ruling the whole of Somalia, they wanted their qabil to be powerful but they never had a plan to keep somalia under their rule.